Australia vs New Zealand Prediction – Rugby League World Cup Final

Talk about a full circle moment. Australia and New Zealand opened the 2026 Rugby League World Cup and a month later they’ll close it when they run out for the final.

That’s right, the Kangaroos and Kiwis have outlasted the other eight nations who took part in this year’s edition of the RLWC and now get a shot at the trophy.

As hosts and reigning champions, it’s no surprise Australia will hit the Suncorp Stadium turf as favourites, but only just as this is easily the most complete NZ side for nearly two decades.

In fact, you have to wind the clock back nearly two decades to 2008 to find the last time New Zealand won the World Cup. While you’re there, you’ll also find the last time Australia lost a World Cup final. 

Talk about a stranglehold. However, if anyone can break this Green and Gold vice grip, it’s this incarnation of the Kiwis. 

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the Rugby League World Cup Final, check out our Australia vs New Zealand tips and predictions below.

Australia vs New Zealand Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

As mentioned, Australia enter the 2026 Rugby League World Cup Final as favourites, but New Zealand have already shown they can push the Kangaroos to the brink. 

The tournament opener between these two finished 24-22 to Australia, and that narrow result leaves this decider on genuine knife’s edge rather than the feel of a routine Kangaroos coronation. 

Historically, Australia have dominated the matchup, winning 19 of 21 meetings with New Zealand, but the Kiwis’ belief will come from the biggest result of all: their 34-20 upset in the 2008 World Cup Final at this very venue - Suncorp Stadium. 

This year’s final is also a repeat of the 2000, 2008 and 2013 World Cup deciders, with Australia chasing a fourth straight title and a 13th overall, while New Zealand seek only their second world crown. 

To get here, the Kangaroos crushed Samoa 44-12 in the semi-final, with Reece Walsh scoring a hat-trick, Tom Dearden and Cameron Munster controlling the game, and forwards Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (157 metres) and Pat Carrigan (163 metres) laying the platform. 

Meanwhile, New Zealand produced a stunning 34-10 win over Tonga, inspired by Kalyn Ponga’s remarkable return from a broken arm. 

Ponga ran for 193 metres and produced three try assists, while Jahrome Hughes added a try and 397 kick metres in a commanding display. 

The key battle may be in the spine: Walsh, Dearden and Munster’s speed and creativity against Ponga and Hughes’ composure and counterpunch. 

Australia own the bigger history, but after a two-point loss in the tournament curtain raiser and with Ponga back in full flight, New Zealand look far more dangerous than the 19-2 all-time record suggests.

While we just back bring ourselves to bet against an Australia side who simply take care of business on the world stage time and time again, we will say this – do not expect the Kiwis to go quietly. 

Betting tip: Australia. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

Fresh off a hat-trick in his side’s storming semi-final triumph over Samoa, it probably comes as a surprise to absolutely no one that we’re sticking with Reece Walsh for this market once again.

He’s got five tries, five try assists and five line breaks in three games so far at this World Cup and regardless of what happens on Sunday, he seems to all but certainly have the Player of the Tournament award sewn up. 

Betting tip: Reece Walsh. 

Over/Under Prediction 

The over/under market clearly expects points in this one and is currently set at 41.5. The question is can this total be eclipsed?

We don’t think so, and here’s why. In Australia vs New Zealand’s last five matches this total has only been exceeded on two occasions.

Add to this the fact that finals are normally cagey affairs and will be taking the under here. 

Betting tip: Under 41.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

Such is the quality of these two teams; we unsurprisingly have a razor thin line to work with here. 

Set at 1.5 points, there’s not much wiggle room here, but let’s take a peek at some previous encounters between these two nations for a bit more guidance on which side of the line to take. 

A quick look at the history books shows that Kangaroos have managed to cover a line of this size in four of their last five encounters against the Kiwis.

The most recent of those was the opener of this very tournament, with Australia just sneaking over this preset threshold by 0.5 points as they ran out 24-22 victors in an all-time classic.

We are expecting something similar to play out here, with no more than a converted try in it should Australia get home again. 

Betting tip: Australia (-1.5) line. 

Rugby League World Cup Final Predicted Teams 

Australia Predicted Team List 

1. Reece Walsh

2. Jack Bostock

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Bradman Best

5. Tom Trbojevic

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tom Dearden

8. Tino Fa'asaumaleaui

9. Harry Grant

10. Keaon Koloamatangi

11. Jacob Preston

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Ethan Strange

15. Pat Carrigan

16. Cameron Murray

17. Reuben Cotter

18. Latrell Mitchell

19. Sam Walker

New Zealand Predicted Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Dane Gagai

4. Casey McLean

5. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

6. Kodi Nikorima

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Jeremy Marshall-King

10. Moses Leota

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Briton Nikora

13. Joseph Tapine

14. Phoenix Crossland

15. Naufahu Whyte

16. Erin Clark

17. Xavier Willison

18. Keano Kini

19. Te Maire Martin

Rugby League World Cup Final Match Details 

Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026. 

Kick-off: 6:35pm AEST. 

Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 

*Odds are subject to change.