The Eurovision Song Contest draws over 160 million viewers annually, making it one of the most-watched non-sporting events on the planet

For Australian punters, it's also become one of the most intriguing betting events of the year, since the unpredictable combination of jury votes, public sentiment, and geopolitical quirks all contribute to creating a market unlike anything else on the calendar.

Australia has competed at Eurovision since 2015, when Guy Sebastian's "Tonight Again" finished fifth in the inaugural year. That special invitation became a permanent arrangement, and Aussie fans have embraced the contest with genuine enthusiasm.

SBS broadcasts typically pull in strong ratings despite the early morning timeslot (usually around 5am AEST), and the betting interest follows.

The outright winner market opens months before the contest and shifts dramatically as songs are released, rehearsals are televised, and the betting public reacts.

Punters who understand how Eurovision actually works have a genuine edge over casual observers who just pick their favourite song.

How the Eurovision Song Contest Works

The contest runs over three shows. This year, the 70th edition of the song festival will kick off with two semi-finals on 12 and 14 May, and end with a final on 16 May 2026, held at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria.

The semi-finals each feature around 15-18 countries competing for 10 qualification spots to the final.

Six countries bypass the semis entirely: these are the so-called "Big Five" (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom), and they automatically qualify due to their financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union. The host nation (Austria) also skips the semis.

Australia competes in one of the two semi-finals and must qualify for the grand final, which adds an extra layer of interest for local punters, as backing Australia outright carries the inherent risk of semi-final elimination.

Go-Jo's "Milkshake Man" fell at that hurdle in 2025, finishing 11th in the second semi and missing the final by a single placing.

The final typically features 26 acts performing in a running order determined by the producers (designed to balance the show aesthetically rather than alphabetically). After all performances conclude and the voting process begins.

The Voting System Explained

Eurovision uses a combined jury and televote system, where each participating country awards two separate sets of points: one from a professional jury panel and one from public voting.

The points scale runs 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for each set, meaning a country can receive a maximum of 24 points from any single nation (12 jury plus 12 televote).

Jury and public preferences often diverge substantially. The juries tend to reward polished vocal performances, contemporary production, and technically proficient staging.

The televote, however, frequently favours high-energy performances, memorable gimmicks, or songs with strong diaspora support. This split creates the contest's signature tension: a song leading the jury vote can still lose if the public swings elsewhere.

The "Rest of the World" vote was introduced in 2023, and it allows viewers from non-participating countries to contribute to a combined televote share. This expanded global participation but represents a relatively small portion of the total points.

Austria won the 2025 contest with "Wasted Love" by JJ, claiming both the combined vote and the jury vote while placing fourth in the televote.

Israel won the public vote but finished second overall, which perfectly illustrates how the dual system can produce surprise results.

Eurovision Betting Markets

The outright winner market is the most popular, and it opens as soon as participating countries are announced, often six months before the event.

Early odds reflect broadcaster reputation, historical performance, and speculation about potential entries. Once songs are released (usually between January and March), the market moves rapidly. Rehearsal footage from the host city can trigger significant late shifts in the week before the final.

Bookmakers take substantial positions on Eurovision, and the market tends to be efficient by contest day. Sharp punters hunt for value in the weeks before, when information asymmetries exist between casual bettors and those tracking song releases, national selection shows, and fan community sentiment.

If you are considering placing a bet on the song festival, have a look at the Eurovision 2026 outright winner odds here at Sportsbet.

Do keep in mind that the biggest price movements occur when songs are first released. A country might open at long odds based on historical underperformance, then shorten dramatically once a genuinely competitive entry drops.

Sweden, for example, often starts with short odds regardless of their actual song, while nations like Malta or San Marino might offer value if they select a stronger-than-expected entry.

Jury vs Televote Split

Songs that appeal to both juries and the public have the strongest winning chances. Entries that lean heavily one direction carry more risk. A pure televote performer needs overwhelming public support to overcome a middling jury score. Conversely, jury favourites can collapse if the public doesn't engage.

Italy's Måneskin won in 2021 with genuine crossover appeal: edgy rock that the public adored and strong enough vocals to satisfy juries.

By contrast, entries that feel overly polished or safe often underperform with televotes despite jury approval.

Staging and Production Value

Eurovision is a television spectacle. Songs that translate well to the staging format (LED screens, pyrotechnics, dance routines, costume changes) often outperform sonically stronger entries with boring visuals. Rehearsal footage matters.

A song might sound great on Spotify but look dull on the Eurovision stage. The punters watching dress rehearsals in the days before the final often spot these issues before odds adjust.

Diaspora Voting

Large diaspora populations scattered across Europe can deliver reliable televote points. Turkey (when it competed), Greece, Serbia, and Albania all benefit from significant populations abroad who vote for their country of origin.

This creates a floor for certain entries, making them safer for top 10 bets even if they lack outright winning potential.

Australia's Eurovision Record

Since debuting in 2015, Australia has achieved mixed results. The standout performance remains Dami Im's "Sound of Silence" in 2016, which finished second after winning the jury vote but narrowly losing the televote to Ukraine.

Guy Sebastian's fifth-place finish in 2015 and Kate Miller-Heidke's ninth in 2019 (with the acrobatic "Zero Gravity" staging) also rate among the highlights.

The 2024 and 2025 campaigns ended in semi-final elimination, suggesting Australia's novelty factor has worn off somewhat with European voters. Electric Fields (2024) and Go-Jo (2025) both finished 11th in their respective semis, one spot outside qualification. Punters backing Australia outright need to factor in genuine semi-final risk.

Australia's broadcaster SBS typically selects its entry internally rather than through a public national final, which creates uncertainty for early bettors.

The entry announcement usually comes in February or March, later than many European nations who hold televised selection shows in January.

Watching Eurovision in Australia

SBS broadcasts all three shows live, which means early morning starts for dedicated fans. The grand final typically airs around 5am AEST on a Sunday morning in May.

SBS On Demand streams the broadcast, and replays air later in the day for those unwilling to set an alarm.

The early morning timeslot actually suits live betting if you're into that sort of thing. Odds can shift dramatically during performances as bookmakers react to staging, vocal performances, and social media sentiment.

The voting sequence (jury results followed by televote reveal) creates additional volatility in the final hour.

Tips for Eurovision Betting

Do your homework before the contest. Listen to the competing songs (all available on YouTube and streaming services), watch rehearsal footage when it releases, and follow fan communities who track odds movements. Wiwibloggs and the Eurovision subreddit provide extensive coverage, too.

Consider the full picture: song quality, staging potential, jury appeal, televote appeal, and diaspora support. Entries that tick multiple boxes present stronger cases than one-dimensional songs.

Don't chase favourites blindly. The market is efficient, and backing a clear favourite at short odds offers minimal return for genuine risk. Value often exists in the second tier of contenders who could win if circumstances align.