The 2026 NFL season starts where the 2025 campaign ended: with the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots.

Seattle prevailed 29-13 at Super Bowl LX, so will it be a case of revenge or repeat at Lumen Field on Thursday, September 10 (10:20 AEST kick off)? 

Let’s take a look…

Quick Picks

Our pick: New England Patriots +3.5

Value bet: Under 46.5 Points

Long shot: George Holani 20+ Rushing Yards

Betting Preview

First things first – the Seahawks have defeated the Patriots in each of their last four meetings. And they only enjoyed home advantage in one of those, so Seattle have certainly found an edge against the six-time Super Bowl champions.

They are also particularly strong on home soil, where they enjoy being cheered on by their famous ‘12th man’ crowd at Lumen Field, so the Pats will have their work cut out in overturning the 16-point margin of defeat they suffered at the Super Bowl.

But Gameweek 1 of the new season can be an opportunity for some shock results and upsets, while the Seahawks are hurt considerably by the loss of Kenneth Walker III.

In contrast, the Patriots have seemingly strengthened during the offseason with the likes of A.J. Brown and Kevin Byard, while Drake Maye is surely on the cusp of becoming an elite quarterback.

Optimism about the Pats’ trade activity suggests that backing them on the plus side of the handicap offers good value.

Betting Markets to Watch

Although the winning margin was wide at Super Bowl LX, the consensus is that Seattle have weakened since then, while New England have improved in key areas.

The Patriots may be a sizeable underdog in the match betting market, but a handicap line of +3.5 is scope enough to back the outsider – they can lose by three points here and bets will still land.

The total points line has been set at 44.5, from which the ‘unders’ side would have landed at both Super Bowl LX and their previous meeting back in 2024.

The Seahawks did an outstanding job of managing the Patriots’ attacking threat in the Super Bowl game, while their own offensive output will, presumably, be weakened with Walker III likely to be replaced by a rookie in the key running back position.

In time, Maye-Brown could be a really strong connection for the Patriots; there’s no doubting the potential there.

But new partnerships can often take a while to gel and flourish, so backing an alternative points line of Under 46.5 could be the sharper side of the line.

With Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet injured, there is a short-term vacancy for a premier running back in Seattle’s ranks.

Rookie Jadarian Price will have to burden a lot of responsibility, so maybe it’s old hand George Holani that represents the better betting proposition.

He rushed for 31 yards in the NFC championship game and 13 in the Super Bowl, so stepping out of the shadows of Walker III and Charbonnet, he can be expected to deliver the goods at Lumen Field on Thursday – the 20+ rushing yard line is a strong starting point.

Our Prediction

You can see the latest Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots odds at Sportsbet.

This could well be a pretty tight game, much closer than Super Bowl LX, with Seattle seemingly weaker since last season’s curtain call and New England looking like they are on the ascendance.

Maybe the Seahawks will prevail on Thursday, but it might only be by a fine margin. The Patriots have a good chance of clearing their handicap here.

There is plenty more action to come across the new campaign, so keep an eye on our weekly NFL predictions as the season unfolds.