Super Bowl 2026 Betting Guide: Everything Australian Punters Need to Know
16/01/2026|Giovanni Angioni|NFL News
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<p><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/events/superbowl">Super Bowl LX</a> arrives in Santa Clara on February 8, 2026. Here's your complete breakdown of betting markets, contenders, and strategies for the biggest single-day sporting event on the planet.</p>
<p>The NFL's championship game generates more betting action than any other event in world sport.</p>
<p>Last year's Super Bowl LIX saw the Philadelphia Eagles thump the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22, ending Kansas City's dynasty dreams and reshaping the entire AFC landscape. With Patrick Mahomes sidelined by a torn ACL, this season has blown the competition wide open.</p>
<h2>Super Bowl LX: Key Details</h2>
<p>Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California hosts Super Bowl LX on Sunday, February 8, 2026. The San Francisco 49ers' home ground previously hosted Super Bowl 50 back in 2016 when the Denver Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers.</p>
<p>For Australian viewers, kickoff translates to Monday morning AEDT. Kayo Sports and ESPN will carry the broadcast, with pre-game coverage starting several hours before the opening whistle.</p>
<h2>Understanding Super Bowl Betting Markets</h2>
<p>The Super Bowl offers more betting markets than any other single game. Punters can back everything from the outright winner to the colour of the Gatorade shower. Let's break down the key markets.</p>
<h3>Outright Winner (Futures)</h3>
<p>The bread and butter of Super Bowl betting. You're simply picking which team lifts the Lombardi Trophy. These markets open immediately after the previous Super Bowl and fluctuate throughout the season based on team performance, injuries, and public money.</p>
<p>Smart punters look for value early in the season before lines tighten. The sweet spot often comes mid-season when a quality team hits a rough patch and their price drifts beyond their true chances.</p>
<h3>Head-to-Head (Moneyline)</h3>
<p>Once the Super Bowl matchup is set, you can back either team to win outright. No spreads, no complications. The favourite will offer shorter returns while the underdog pays more handsomely.</p>
<p>Historical note: underdogs have won six of the last ten Super Bowls outright. The days of dominant favourites steamrolling opponents are largely gone.</p>
<h3>Point Spread</h3>
<p>The spread levels the playing field by giving the underdog a points advantage. If the spread is set with one team favoured by a field goal, they need to win by more than three points for spread backers to collect.</p>
<p>Super Bowl spreads tend to be tight. Blowouts are rare at this level, which is why spreads of a touchdown or more have become increasingly uncommon. The last seven Super Bowls have all been decided by single digits.</p>
<h3>Total Points (Over/Under)</h3>
<p>Rather than picking a winner, you're betting on whether the combined score will exceed or fall short of the bookmaker's line. Indoor Super Bowls historically produce higher-scoring affairs, averaging nearly 48 points compared to 42 points outdoors.</p>
<p>The total for Super Bowl LIX was set around 49 points. The Eagles and Chiefs combined for 62, sailing well over. But the four Super Bowls before that all went under.</p>
<h3>Prop Bets</h3>
<p>This is where Super Bowl betting gets creative. Player props cover individual statistics: passing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, longest catch. Game props extend to first scoring play, last team to score, whether there will be a safety, and dozens more.</p>
<p>The most famous prop? The Gatorade colour. Whatever shade gets dumped on the winning coach is a genuine betting market, and it attracts serious action.</p>
<h3>Same Game Multis</h3>
<p>Combine multiple selections from the same game into one bet. Back the favourite to win, the total to go over, and a specific player to score. All legs must hit for the multi to pay, but the returns can be substantial.</p>
<h2>The Chiefs Dynasty Collapse</h2>
<p>Any Super Bowl betting guide must address the elephant in the room: the Kansas City Chiefs will not be playing in February.</p>
<p>Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The injury ended Kansas City's season and officially closed the book on their dynasty. Three Super Bowl appearances in a row, two consecutive championships, and a chance at the first three-peat in NFL history, all gone.</p>
<p>The Chiefs were already struggling before the injury. They'd lost to the Chargers twice and dropped games to teams they would have beaten easily in previous seasons. The roster looked tired, and the magic that defined the Mahomes era seemed to have faded.</p>
<p>For punters, the Chiefs' absence fundamentally changes the Super Bowl market since Kansas City had been the AFC's gravitational centre for half a decade. Every betting calculation had to account for them.</p>
<p>Now that they're gone, the conference is genuinely wide open.</p>
<p>The Broncos, Bills, and Patriots all benefit from not having to go through Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl. Value calculations on AFC teams should reflect this seismic shift.</p>
<h2>2025-26 Super Bowl Contenders</h2>
<p>The 2025-26 NFL season has produced one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory. The Kansas City Chiefs' elimination in Week 15 removed the sport's dominant force from the equation entirely.</p>
<h3>NFC Contenders</h3>
<h4>Los Angeles Rams</h4>
<p>Sean McVay's Rams have emerged as the team to beat. Matthew Stafford is playing the best football of his 17-year career, leading the league in touchdown passes and passer rating. At 37, he's mounting a legitimate MVP campaign that would cap a remarkable late-career resurgence.</p>
<p>Stafford threw for over 450 yards in a single game against the Seahawks, including a no-look touchdown pass to Puka Nacua that instantly became one of the plays of the season. He's completing passes in tight windows that most quarterbacks wouldn't even attempt.</p>
<p>Nacua has established himself as the NFL's premier receiver. He's chasing the all-time single-season receiving yards record and recently posted 150-plus receiving yards in three consecutive games, tying an NFL record. The Rams also added Davante Adams mid-season, giving Stafford two elite targets. When Adams went down with a hamstring injury, Nacua simply absorbed even more targets and kept producing.</p>
<p>The defence has rounded into form as well. Los Angeles ranks inside the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, a combination that typically produces Super Bowl teams. They beat the Lions 41-34 in a shootout that showcased their ability to hang with anyone offensively while making enough stops to win.</p>
<h4>Seattle Seahawks</h4>
<p>The NFC West has three legitimate contenders, and Seattle sits right in the mix. They knocked off the Rams in an overtime thriller in Week 16, proving they can hang with anyone.</p>
<p>Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as one of the league's best young receivers, while the defence creates enough pressure to keep games close. Seattle's ceiling depends heavily on whether Sam Darnold can maintain his current form into January.</p>
<h4>Philadelphia Eagles</h4>
<p>The defending champions have stumbled through stretches this season but remain dangerous. Saquon Barkley continues to be a force, and the offensive line that paved his way to 229 rushing yards in last year's NFC Championship Game remains largely intact.</p>
<p>Jalen Hurts knows how to win in the playoffs. The Eagles' experience from their Super Bowl LIX triumph matters when the pressure intensifies in January.</p>
<h4>Chicago Bears</h4>
<p>Caleb Williams has announced himself as a franchise quarterback. The Bears lead the league in takeaways, and their 10-win season represents a massive turnaround from recent struggles.</p>
<p>They lack playoff experience and face a brutal finishing stretch, but this team has shown it can compete with anyone. The price on the Bears offers genuine value for punters willing to take a shot.</p>
<h4>Green Bay Packers</h4>
<p>Jordan Love has the talent to lead a deep playoff run, but the Packers suffered a devastating blow when Micah Parsons, acquired via trade earlier this season, tore his ACL. That injury changes Green Bay's defensive ceiling significantly.</p>
<p>Still, the Packers have been here before. They won a playoff game as the seventh seed in 2024 and have the offensive firepower to outscore anyone. If Love gets hot at the right time, this team could make noise.</p>
<h3>AFC Contenders</h3>
<h4>Denver Broncos</h4>
<p>Nobody saw this coming. The Broncos own the AFC's best record and have won 11 of their last 12 games. Bo Nix has developed far faster than projected, and Sean Payton believed this team could win it all as early as training camp.</p>
<p>Nix spent the offseason working with Drew Brees and throwing mechanics specialist Tom House. The results have been transformative. He threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers in a playoff-clinching win, completing passes with accuracy and timing that looked nothing like his inconsistent rookie season.</p>
<p>Denver's defence ranks top five in the league and leads in sacks. Patrick Surtain II is one of the NFL's elite corners, and edge rusher Nik Bonitto has emerged as a genuine pass-rushing threat. They've beaten both Super Bowl teams from last February, dismissing the Eagles on the road and the Chiefs at home.</p>
<p>Nix has eight fourth-quarter comebacks in his first two seasons, the most by any quarterback in that span since the NFL began tracking the statistic in 1950. This team doesn't panic. They trailed in each of their first 12 games this season but kept finding ways to win.</p>
<p>The concern? They finally lost in Week 16 to Jacksonville, snapping an 11-game winning streak. How they respond will tell us whether this team has the mental fortitude to survive January.</p>
<h4>Buffalo Bills</h4>
<p>Josh Allen remains the most dangerous player in football. The reigning MVP has orchestrated comebacks from 21-point and 10-point deficits in consecutive weeks this season. Against the Patriots, he led five straight touchdown drives after falling behind early, completing 13 of 20 passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns in the second half alone.</p>
<p>"We don't blink," Allen said after that comeback victory. The Bills' resilience has become their calling card.</p>
<p>James Cook leads the NFL in rushing, giving Buffalo a balanced attack they've sometimes lacked in the Allen era. The Bills are 21-3 in December since 2020, earning Allen the nickname "Mr. December" around the league. With the Chiefs eliminated, Buffalo's path to the Super Bowl has never been clearer. Allen's playoff heartbreak against Kansas City can't happen this year because Kansas City won't be there.</p>
<p>The defence creates turnovers at a prolific rate, with five takeaways across the last three games alone. Greg Rousseau has emerged as a dominant pass rusher down the stretch. This team has no obvious weaknesses heading into the postseason.</p>
<p>Allen signed a $330 million contract extension with $250 million guaranteed, the largest guaranteed money ever given to an NFL player at the time. Buffalo has gone all-in on their franchise quarterback, and this season represents their best chance to finally break through.</p>
<h4>New England Patriots</h4>
<p>Drake Maye has arrived. The rookie quarterback leads an 11-3 squad that has won ten straight games at one point this season. The Patriots' rebuild under new coaching is ahead of schedule.</p>
<p>New England's defence creates turnovers, and Maye shows the poise of a veteran. They've beaten quality opponents and should be taken seriously as a Super Bowl threat.</p>
<h4>Jacksonville Jaguars</h4>
<p>Trevor Lawrence has found his form at the right time. The Jaguars snapped Denver's winning streak in Week 16 and are playing their best football of the season.</p>
<p>This team has the talent to make a deep run if Lawrence continues performing at his current level.</p>
<h2>Historical Super Bowl Betting Trends</h2>
<p>The numbers tell interesting stories for punters willing to dig into the data.</p>
<p><strong>The Underdog Angle</strong></p>
<p>Underdogs have covered the spread in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls. The team with the better regular season record has lost 12 of the last 14 and sits on a 16-game losing streak against the spread since 2004.</p>
<p>The motivation of entering the biggest game as the underdog appears to be a genuine factor. Kansas City won back-to-back Super Bowls as slight underdogs before getting hammered as favourites in Super Bowl LIX.</p>
<p><strong>The Winner Covers</strong></p>
<p>Here's a counterbalancing trend: the outright winner has covered the spread in 48 of 58 Super Bowls (nearly 83%). Champions tend to leave no doubt. Seven teams in Super Bowl history have won but failed to cover.</p>
<p><strong>Totals Are a Coin Flip</strong></p>
<p>In games where a total was posted, the over and under have hit exactly 29 times each. The last two Super Bowls went over after four consecutive unders. No discernible pattern exists here.</p>
<p><strong>Indoor Scoring Boost</strong></p>
<p>Super Bowls played indoors average nearly 48 points compared to 42 outdoors. Only three of the last ten indoor Super Bowls went under. Levi's Stadium has a retractable roof but typically stays open in the mild Bay Area climate.</p>
<h2>Super Bowl MVP Betting</h2>
<p>The Super Bowl MVP market offers another angle. Quarterbacks have won 32 of the last 35 Super Bowl MVPs, so this is largely a two-horse race between the starting signal-callers.</p>
<p>Running backs occasionally break through when they dominate (like Malcolm Smith's pick-six in Super Bowl XLVIII), but you're typically backing against steep odds.</p>
<p>Matthew Stafford would be the clear MVP favourite if the Rams reach the Super Bowl, given his season-long campaign. Josh Allen's case would be equally strong for Buffalo.</p>
<h2>When to Place Your Bets</h2>
<p>Futures: Lock in early if you've identified value. Prices only shorten as teams prove themselves.</p>
<p>Conference Winners: The market opens after the regular season. Conference winner bets can offer better value than straight Super Bowl futures because you're only betting on one game's worth of opponents.</p>
<p>Head-to-Head and Spreads: Wait until the matchup is set, then monitor line movement. Early money often comes from sharp bettors who have done their homework.</p>
<p>Props: These markets are most liquid in the final week before the game. Shop around, as prices vary significantly between bookmakers.</p>
<h2>Watching Super Bowl LX in Australia</h2>
<p>Kickoff for Super Bowl LX is scheduled for Monday morning AEDT, making it a perfect excuse to call in sick or work from home. Kayo Sports will stream the event, and ESPN provides coverage through Foxtel.</p>
<p>The halftime show announcement typically comes months before the game and generates substantial betting interest of its own. Props on song choices and special guests become available closer to the event.</p>
<h2>Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3>When is Super Bowl 2026?</h3>
<p>Super Bowl LX takes place on Sunday, February 8, 2026 (Monday morning February 9 in Australia). Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California hosts the event.</p>
<h3>What channel is the Super Bowl on in Australia?</h3>
<p>Kayo Sports streams the Super Bowl live, and ESPN broadcasts through Foxtel. Coverage begins several hours before kickoff with extensive pre-game analysis.</p>
<h3>Who are the favourites to win Super Bowl LX?</h3>
<p>The Los Angeles Rams lead most Super Bowl futures markets, with the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos close behind. The Philadelphia Eagles remain in the mix as defending champions.</p>
<h3>What happened to the Kansas City Chiefs?</h3>
<p>Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15, and the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention shortly after. Their dynasty has officially ended.</p>
<h3>Are underdogs profitable in Super Bowl betting?</h3>
<p>Historically, yes. Underdogs have covered the spread in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls and have won six of the last ten games outright.</p>
<h3>What are the most popular Super Bowl prop bets?</h3>
<p>First touchdown scorer, MVP, total passing yards for each quarterback, and the famous Gatorade colour prop attract the most action.</p>
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