NBL Tips and Predictions – Round 5 2026

Last week left the top of the ladder looking a lot more crowded, so can NBL Round 5 separate the contenders from the pretenders? 

The reigning champion Sydney Kings finally lost, going down 84-78 at home to the Adelaide 36ers in a Championship Series rematch that ended with Kendric Davis and Bryce Cotton needing to be separated.

That leaves Perth (4-1), Tasmania (4-1) and Sydney (3-1) bunched together, with Cairns (4-3) on a three-game winning streak just behind them. At the other end, Illawarra lost both games of a home double to slide to 1-6.

The biggest news of the week came off the court. The New Zealand Breakers are likely to be without Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who is averaging 26.6 points per game, for the rest of their three-game Australian road trip with a lower-leg injury.

Seven games, four teams playing twice and a Breakers backcourt held together with sticky tape. Who handles the load best?

For the latest NBL news, analysis, and odds, check out our expert NBL Round 5 tips and predictions below.

Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers Prediction

Wednesday, October 14, 7:30pm AEDT – AIS Arena

NBL Round 5 tips off in Canberra, with the Kings taking their home game to AIS Arena.

Sydney will want to forget Sunday's third quarter in a hurry. They managed just 12 points in it against Adelaide, and Xavier Cooks (22 points) was left to carry the scoring.

The Breakers have confirmed Jackson-Cartwright is likely to miss this one, and Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick (neck) are also on the sidelines.

Without their star in Perth, Sam Mennenga went berserk for 40 points and 18 rebounds, and the Breakers still lost 100-84.

If the injury list gets any longer, Gordon Herbert might have to suit up at point guard himself. We like the Kings to bounce back.

Betting tip: Sydney Kings.

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Prediction

Thursday, October 15, 7:30pm AEDT – Brisbane Entertainment Centre

Brisbane won their first two games under new coach Will Weaver and have lost three straight since, the latest a 97-91 defeat in Cairns.

There were positives in that one. Nate Hinton dropped 30 points and Tyrell Harrison hauled in 18 rebounds.

The Bullets haven't played since last Thursday, while the Phoenix are opening a two-game week that also has them hosting Cairns on Saturday.

South East Melbourne (2-4) led Melbourne United 53-45 at half-time on Saturday night and still lost 104-99.

Nathan Sobey (24 points) can get hot against anyone, but we fancy the fresher home side.

Betting tip: Brisbane Bullets.

Tasmania JackJumpers vs Adelaide 36ers Prediction

Friday, October 16, 7:30pm AEDT – MyState Bank Arena

The JackJumpers set a new franchise scoring mark last time out, putting 122 points on Illawarra in Wollongong.

David Johnson led the way with 32 points, and skipper Will Magnay filled the stat sheet with nine rebounds and eight assists.

That's a 4-1 start with Bryce Hamilton, Majok Deng, Ben Ayre and Anthony Drmic all still on the NBL injury list. Scary stuff.

Adelaide arrive at 3-4 but with some momentum after snapping a three-game losing run in Sydney, where John Jenkins III top-scored with 20 and Cotton dished out eight assists.

Can the Sixers win two on the road in a week? We're backing the JackJumpers to hold firm at home.

Betting tip: Tasmania JackJumpers.

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Cairns Taipans Prediction

Saturday, October 17, 5:30pm AEDT – John Cain Arena

The Phoenix turn around inside 48 hours after Thursday night in Brisbane, while Cairns will have had almost a week off since Sunday.

The Taipans have won three straight. Jack McVeigh poured in 32 points in Sunday's 110-100 win over Illawarra, and Jaylon Brown had 25 against Brisbane a few nights earlier.

South East Melbourne's problem has been finishing. They took a lead into the half against United and couldn't hold it, and a quick back-to-back won't help the legs.

Rested and in form, the Snakes are our pick.

Betting tip: Cairns Taipans.

Sydney Kings vs Perth Wildcats Prediction

Saturday, October 17, 7:30pm AEDT – Afterpay Arena

This is easily the standout clash of NBL Round 5. Perth are 4-1 and have won four straight, but all five of their games have been at home. This is their first road trip of the season, and it starts at the champs' place.

Dylan Windler is in serious touch after 32 points against the Breakers, and new import Brandon Knight has now had his first NBL hit out.

The Wildcats are still without big man Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (calf), while the Kings won their first three home games before the Adelaide loss.

Can Perth take that home form on the road? We reckon Sydney get it done.

Betting tip: Sydney Kings.

Tasmania JackJumpers vs New Zealand Breakers Prediction

Sunday, October 18, 3:00pm AEDT – MyState Bank Arena

It's game three of the Breakers' Australian road trip, and the club has already flagged that Jackson-Cartwright is likely to miss this one too.

The Breakers have signed German guard Nelson Weidemann as injury cover, which should help, but he's walking into a tough assignment.

Tasmania are playing their second game in three days, but they're at home and their offence is humming.

Mennenga will get his numbers. We just don't think it will be enough.

Betting tip: Tasmania JackJumpers.

Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Prediction

Sunday, October 18, 5:00pm AEDT – John Cain Arena

The final game of NBL Round 5 pits a United side on a two-game winning streak against a Hawks outfit that can't buy a win.

Luke Travers (24 points) and Josh Oduro (10 rebounds) led United's comeback over South East Melbourne last Saturday.

Illawarra are 1-6 and still searching for their first road win. They conceded 122 and 110 points in their two home losses last weekend.

The Hawks have had a full week to regroup, but United's size inside should be too much.

Betting tip: Melbourne United.

Got your NBL Round 5 picks sorted? Head to the Sportsbet NBL markets for the latest on every game this week.

*Odds are subject to change.