Spurs vs Knicks Prediction: 2026 NBA Finals Preview
02/06/2026|Giovanni Angioni|NBA Tips & Predictions
Twenty-seven years ago, a young San Antonio big man won his first championship against the New York Knicks. Now Victor Wembanyama gets the same opponent and the same chance.
The Spurs carry home court, a 62-win season and the best player on the floor into the 2026 NBA Finals.
The Knicks arrive on an 11-game playoff tear with a 53-year title drought to end.
Our lean is San Antonio to win the series , and below we run through how both sides got here, the matchups that decide it, where to watch in Australia and the markets on Sportsbet that catch the eye.
How to Watch the 2026 NBA Finals in Australia
The series runs across June, with every game tipping off in the Australian morning. That makes for coffee-in-hand viewing rather than a midnight alarm.
Game 1 tips off Thursday June 4 at 10:30am AEST from San Antonio. Here is the full schedule, with Games 5, 6 and 7 played only if the series needs them.
- Game 1: Thursday June 4, 10:30am AEST, San Antonio
- Game 2: Saturday June 6, 10:30am AEST, San Antonio
- Game 3: Tuesday June 9, 10:30am AEST, New York
- Game 4: Thursday June 11, 10:30am AEST, New York
- Game 5: Sunday June 14, 10:30am AEST, San Antonio
- Game 6: Wednesday June 17, 10:30am AEST, New York
- Game 7: Saturday June 20, 10:30am AEST, San Antonio
Every game is live on ESPN in Australia, which you can stream through Kayo Sports or Foxtel, with Disney+ another option. The Finals are an ESPN exclusive locally, so free-to-air is not in the mix this time. For the full rundown of platforms and pricing, Sportsbet has a guide on how to watch NBA games in Australia.
How the Spurs and Knicks Reached the Finals
San Antonio took the long way.
They stole Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in double overtime as outsiders, held serve at home, then walked into Oklahoma City and knocked off the defending champions in a Game 7, 111 to 103.
The Thunder won 64 games and entered the NBA playoffs betting as title favourites, and the Spurs sent them packing.
Wembanyama was the standout across the seven games, and the win booked San Antonio's first Finals trip since 2014.
They are also one of the youngest teams ever to reach this stage, which makes the run all the more striking.
New York's road looked nothing like it
The Knicks have not lost since late April. They beat Atlanta in six in the first round, swept Philadelphia in the semis, then swept Cleveland in the Conference Finals to roll in on an 11-game winning streak.
They also carry the largest points differential of any team in playoff history into this series, which tells you how comfortable most of those wins were.
Brunson and Towns have done the heavy lifting, but the supporting cast has chipped in all the way through.
This is New York's first Finals appearance since that 1999 loss, and a first shot at the title since 1973.
Spurs vs Knicks Head to Head This Season
The teams met three times during the season, and New York came out ahead in two of them.
The first meeting was the NBA Cup final in December, which the Knicks took 124 to 113.
Read that one with an asterisk, because Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction and came off the bench.
San Antonio hit back on New Year's Eve at home, edging a 134 to 132 thriller. Then in March the Knicks landed the heaviest blow, a 114 to 89 belting at Madison Square Garden that snapped an 11-game San Antonio winning run.
So the form line says New York matches up well.
The counter is that none of those games carried Finals stakes, and the Spurs are a tougher, more settled team now than the one that copped a 25-point loss in March.
Wembanyama has taken a clear step forward since, and the San Antonio defence that stifled Oklahoma City barely resembles the one New York carved up earlier in the year.
Key Players to Watch
This series comes down to a handful of names, and most of them wear the same two colours every night.
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
The 7-foot-4 Frenchman is both the engine and the ceiling.
He was named Western Conference Finals MVP after averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.7 blocks a game against Oklahoma City, the kind of two-way line that bends a game plan out of shape.
New York has to account for him on every possession, at the rim and out to the arc.
Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
Brunson is the heartbeat. He took home Eastern Conference Finals MVP on the back of elite midrange scoring and the sort of late-game control that wins playoff series.
Towns gives New York a second genuine scorer and the size to trade blows with Wembanyama on the glass, which is where a lot of this series will be won or lost.
The Supporting Casts
New York centre Mitchell Robinson is the one to track on the injury front.
He is playing through a finger problem, and that matters because the Knicks were far better with him on the floor this season than without.
He is central to how they guard Wembanyama alongside Towns.
San Antonio counters with De'Aaron Fox running the point and a young supporting group, including rookie Dylan Harper and guard Stephon Castle, that has grown up quickly through this run.
Depth has not been a problem for either side.
The 1999 Rematch
This is not the first time these two have met with a trophy on the line.
Back in 1999, the Spurs and Knicks contested the Finals at the end of a lockout-shortened season.
San Antonio won it in five games, Tim Duncan was named Finals MVP, and the Knicks became the first eighth seed ever to reach the championship round.
That title was the first in Spurs history and the start of a dynasty.
The echo this time is hard to miss. Duncan won his first ring against New York, and now Wembanyama, the player San Antonio drafted to carry the franchise forward, gets his shot at a first ring against the very same club.
Omen or coincidence, the punters can decide.
NBA Finals 2026: Spurs vs Knicks Betting Markets
There is more to a seven-game series than picking a winner, and a Finals throws up plenty of angles across the fortnight.
The series winner market is the obvious starting point, with San Antonio shading favouritism on the back of home court.
The series correct score market sits alongside it, letting you back a sweep, a six-game grind or a deciding Game 7, which can offer more value than the straight head to head once you have a read on how tight the matchup is.
Game totals are the other angle to weigh. San Antonio leans on Wembanyama anchoring the defence while New York can score in bunches, so the overs and unders will move with the tempo each night.
Winning-margin bands and first-quarter markets also suit a series that could swing on a few late possessions.
Player markets are where a lot of the interest lives.
The NBA awards odds market covers Finals MVP, where Wembanyama and Brunson loom as the two most likely winners.
Game by game, you can dig into the moneyline, the line (handicap) and totals, plus player props on points, rebounds and assists for the headline acts.
If you are newer to the format, Sportsbet's guide on how to bet on the NBA breaks down the main market types. You can find the latest NBA betting odds for the series and each individual game as lines are released.
Spurs vs Knicks Prediction: Our Pick
We are backing San Antonio to win the series.
The case starts with home court. The Spurs earned it with a 62-20 record, the best in the league, and they host Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 in a series that has the feel of going the distance.
Add the best player on the floor in Wembanyama, fresh off a Conference Finals MVP run and a Game 7 win over the reigning champions, and the structural edge sits with the Spurs.
The risk is real, and it is not small. New York won two of three meetings this season, including that 25-point rout in March, and they arrive rested and riding an 11-game streak while San Antonio scrapped through seven brutal games against Oklahoma City.
Rest against rust is a genuine question, and a hot Brunson can drag any series the other way.
We still lean towards Spurs. The home-court draw, Wembanyama's two-way impact and the hardened look of a side that just beat the champions on their own floor tip it San Antonio's way, most likely across six or seven games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Game 1 start in Australia?
Game 1 tips off on Thursday June 4 at 10:30am AEST from San Antonio.
Where can I watch the 2026 NBA Finals in Australia?
Every game is live on ESPN, which you can stream through Kayo Sports, Foxtel or Disney+. The Finals are an ESPN exclusive locally.
Who has home-court advantage?
San Antonio. The Spurs finished 62-20, ahead of the Knicks at 53-29, so they host Games 1, 2, 5 and 7.
Who won when these teams last met in the Finals?
The Spurs won the 1999 Finals four games to one, with Tim Duncan named Finals MVP.
How long has it been since the Knicks won a title?
New York last won the championship in 1973, a drought of 53 years heading into this series.


