Wales vs New Zealand Prediction and Betting Odds

Both nations enter this game off the back of a victory, but will Wales manage an upset against New Zealand in Round 5 of the Nations Championship?

The All Blacks head to Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium on Sunday, November 15, with kick-off scheduled for 01:10am AEDT.

Quick Picks

Our pick: New Zealand to win

Value bet: New Zealand to win by 15+

Long shot: New Zealand to lead 1st half by 8-14 points

Betting Preview

Wales might have managed to sneak past Japan 28-21 last time out, but head coach Steve Tandy admitted that things still need to improve for the nation. Wales haven’t enjoyed too many wins recently.

That victory was just the fourth in 13 games since he arrived – and even that was super nervy after Kenta Fukuda’s late try for Japan. Louis Rees-Zammit was the key man in that game, providing a spark to a team that, up to last year, had gone on an 18-game losing streak.

Rees-Zammit and this Welsh side will be aiming to carry that spark into the northern hemisphere's showpiece, so the Six Nations betting odds are worth watching once they turn their attention there.

Josh Adams scored two tries, but it was still a performance that left something to be desired for fans of Welsh rugby.

The All Blacks, meanwhile, recorded an emphatic 43-21 victory against Scotland at Murrayfield last weekend, with Beauden Barrett scoring two tries, reaching the 50-try mark, and becoming just the second player in All Blacks history to do so.

Wallace Sititi scored the first try of the game inside the first three minutes, and the All Blacks led 24-21 at half-time. Tries by Josh Moorby, Barrett’s second, and Asafo Aumua in the second half would go unanswered.

A BBC match report hailed New Zealand, describing them as “mostly magnificent, unrelenting and classy”. That sounds pretty ominous for Wales.

Betting Markets to Watch

It’s far from a surprise to see the Nations Championship betting odds have New Zealand as huge favourites. There’s very little value in their moneyline odds, with the price available reflecting an expectation of a dominant win.

This is why there could be value worth exploring elsewhere.

The handicap is a market worth taking a look at, although it could depend on where the line is made. If the line is New Zealand −23.5 to −25.5, or is significantly lower, then the All Blacks are likely to cover it, potentially providing some alternative value to the moneyline.

That said, if the handicap line is New Zealand −29.5 or bigger, then Wales are likely to have the value.

Alternatively, you could consider the win margin for value. New Zealand are likely to be favoured to record a 20+ point victory, so the 15+ outcome is the likely option for this betting market.

Lastly, the total points market could be worth exploring once the line and odds have been set. If the line is around 55.5, the Over is likely to have value. If it is closer to 60.5+, it might be a market worth avoiding.

If handicaps, win margins and total points are unfamiliar territory, our Rugby Championship betting explained guide walks through how each of those markets works.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Wales vs New Zealand betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a New Zealand win.

As part of our long shot, we’re going with the first-half win margin market. Recent games between these two nations have been competitive (Wales were only 24-21 behind early in the second half last November before losing 52-26). 

We think New Zealand by 8-14 should have some value.