France vs South Africa Prediction and Betting Odds

France will host South Africa at the Stade de France in Round 5 of the Nations Championship, with the Springboks still undefeated and Les Bleus only suffering one defeat.

The game will be played on Saturday, November 14, with kick-off at 07:10am AEDT, and the Test match rugby odds reflect all the hallmarks of a highly competitive, bruising encounter.

Quick Picks

Our pick: South Africa to win

Value bet: France handicap

Long shot: South Africa to win by 1-7 points

Betting Preview

France enter this showdown on the back of a dominant victory over Fiji last weekend, impressively dismantling their opponents 54-17 and securing a bonus point.

Les Bleus scored eight tries in that game, each by a different player. 

Louis Bielle-Biarrey might have had a quiet game by his standards, but France still managed to make it three wins on the bounce after losing their first game of the Nations Championship (a two-point defeat to New Zealand).

The Springboks have won each game so far, reflecting their number one world ranking with top performances. They absolutely blew away Italy last weekend in Round four, winning 66-7 and earning a bonus point.

Malcolm Marx scored two tries in the first half, as South Africa scored six of their nine in the first 40 minutes. Italy’s only try came after an hour, but by then the Springboks were already 52-0 up, after being 45-0 up at half-time. 

Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu converted all nine attempts, and also had one penalty goal to his name.

And SA coach Rassie Erasmus has fone for consistency against the French, only making one change to his starting line up against Italy (Wilco Louw replacing Thomas du Toit in the front row).

“We said we would not rotate much on this tour,” said Erasmus. “Most of these players have faced France at home, and know what to expect. They have experienced their passionate and vocal crowd first-hand before.”

Betting Markets to Watch

While their tie against France is expected to be much tighter, Rassie Erasmus and South Africa are the favourites in the moneyline.

Their odds suggest they are only moderate favourites to beat France, though. That’s perhaps partly down to Les Bleus’ showing against the All Blacks, as they have been the toughest side New Zealand have faced in the Nations Championship so far.

The handicap line has been set at 7.5, and there is potential value in France’s handicap to cover it. Their form warrants respect, and they definitely have enough attacking threat to keep the game close. 

The Springboks are the most likely to win, but a lot points to this game being competitive and tight on the field.

With this in mind, the win margin could also have value worth exploring. South Africa to win by 1-7 points has good value, with odds longer than any other option for an South Africa victory. For that reason, it might be worth a shot as a long shot.

The ‘1st Half Winning Margin’ market could have a little value; South Africa to win by 1-7 is plausible, as a competitive opening half is likely. However, Romain Ntamack and Matthieu Jalibert are unavailable, leaving the French middle an area of concern.

Our Prediction

Check the latest France vs South Africa betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a South Africa win.

We have South Africa to win by 1-7 points outcome as our long shot. France do have injury issues, which could make it tough for them to remain competitive throughout the game.