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La Fleche Wallonne Prediction & Betting Odds

22/04/2026|SB Staff|Misc Tips & Predictions
le fleche wallonne
<p>Taking place on Wednesday, April 22 (local time), it is built around one thing: the Mur de Huy finish.</p><p>It is usually decided by the best explosive climber on the steep final ramp, which makes it one of the most form- and positioning-dependent races on the calendar.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Quick Picks</h2><p><strong>Our pick:</strong> Seixas to win</p><p><strong>Value bet:</strong> Vauquelin in the each-way</p><p><strong>Long shot:</strong> Scaroni as outright winner</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Preview</h2><p>The 2026 edition is the 90th running and covers a route of roughly 200 km, with 11 climbs and three ascents of the Mur de Huy.</p><p>The race starts in Herstal and finishes atop the Mur de Huy, the 1.3 km climb that averages about 9.6% and includes sections near 17-20%.</p><p>Because the finish is on the climb, it is less about long-range attacking and more about surviving the day, staying near the front, and timing the last effort perfectly.</p><p>Positioning into the final climb is crucial because the Mur gets steep very quickly, and riders who are boxed in can lose the race before they really start the effort.</p><p>Weather, fatigue from the spring classics block, and whether the race becomes selective earlier than expected all matter, because a slower race can favour pure punchers while a harder day can favour more complete climbers.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Markets to Watch</h2><p>This year's race will be an interesting one, as <strong>Tadej Pogačar</strong> has chosen to sit out of this contest as he keeps himself ready for Liège.</p><p><strong>Remco Evenepoel</strong> is another who has opted out of this one ahead of Sunday's Monument race.</p><p><strong>Matteo Jorgenson</strong> won't be involved after he broke his collarbone in Sunday's Amstel Gold Race.</p><p><strong>Paul Seixas is a name worth keeping tabs on</strong>. He is fresh off a dominant Itzulia Basque Country, Seixas is being framed as the man Pogačar and Evenepoel would have neutralised, so this is his "perfect storm" race.</p><p>Form and psychology are strong, but he has less Mur-specific experience than some older names, so he's a logical favourite.</p><p><strong>Kévin Vauquelin</strong> may have crashed on Sunday, but he has finished runner-up twice in this race, highlighting his ability to go toe-to-toe against some of the world's best on his day.</p><p>His profile is ideal for the race, as he combines solid endurance, a very strong uphill sprint, and the ability to follow repeated attacks on steep gradients, which is exactly what Fleche demands.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Our Prediction</h2><p>You can check out our latest <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/cycling/outrights">cycling outright betting</a> for this race.</p><p>Our <strong>prediction is for Seixas to be the likely winner</strong>, with <strong>Vauquelin offering additional value</strong>.</p><p>A <strong>long shot is Christian Scaroni</strong>, as he regularly finishes well in hilly one-day races and early-season classics, including strong performances at Faun-Ardèche Classic and similar Ardèche-style events that favour punchy climbers.</p>

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