Italy started their Six Nations campaign with a positive surprise win against Scotland. Since then, they've lost each of their two games (Ireland and France). In contrast, England started with a victory against Wales, but have lost to Scotland and Ireland in what English rugby might call embarrassing fashion.
Quick Picks
Our pick: England to win
Value bet: Italy (+6.5) in the handicap
Long shot: Most points scored in the 2nd half
Betting Preview
With Italy showing that they can cause an upset when it's least expected, could we see the same happen again?
Italy's win against Scotland was impressive, edging that contest 18-15 in Rome. They've since played two games on the road, with their defeats to Ireland and France arguably expected.
The Italians are in a new phase of rugby, using the Six Nations to embed new talent into the squad and to give them a sense of what the next era could look like. Ireland and France were experienced, with Les Bleus boasting some of the world's best.
England also feature top players, which is why it's been a surprise to see them lose the last two matches. Entering the Scotland game, they were unbeaten in 12. Now, they're winless in their last two.
The head-to-head favours England heavily. They are unbeaten against Italy in each of the 32 Test matches between the two nations since 1991. Last year's meeting ended with England winning 47-24; the largest win was an 80-23 victory in 2001.
Betting Markets to Watch
The H2H suggests Italy have very little chance, which is reflected in the odds available. For that reason, we're exploring a few other betting markets for this game to find potential value…
Italy at +6.5 in the Line market offers good value. It arguably underrates Italy's positive home form, and doesn't take into account the injuries that England have suffered to their team.
Italy have been making progress, while England have arguably been regressing in recent games, making this line appealing.
The 'Second Half' bet in the Highest Scoring Half market offers value. Italy tend to fade defensively after 50-60 minutes, with bench quality dropping; England's physical pack and maul usually get more joy late. Recent Six Nations trends show many Italy/England games front‑loaded in intensity but with more actual points once structures loosen, and benches come on.
Our Prediction
Check the latest Italy vs England betting odds at Sportsbet.
We believe an England win is likely in this game, but expect it to be close. We think Italy in the handicap offers value, especially if the line is at +6.5 or higher.
Our long shot is for more points to be scored in the second half. Although England can often start strong, we think this one will be more of a challenge in the first half, and Italy's young group will tire as the game goes on. If you're looking to bet on the Six Nations, this match presents some interesting angles beyond the outright winner.
For those wanting to explore international rugby odds beyond the Six Nations, there's plenty of Test match action throughout the year.
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