Germany demolished Israel by 20 points the last time these two met in World Cup qualifying, and the conditions look eerily similar for the return fixture in Riga.

The reigning World Cup and EuroBasket champions face an Israel side once again stripped of their NBA firepower, making this First Round qualifier feel like a mismatch on paper.

• Competition: FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers (First Round)
• Venue: Xiaomi Arena (Arena Riga), Riga, Latvia
• Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026 (AEST)
• Start Time: 3:00 AM AEST (Saturday)

Israel vs Germany Form and Head to Head

Germany won the only meeting this campaign convincingly, running out 89-69 winners in November 2025 in a game that was effectively decided by halftime. Israel trailed 50-31 at the break, and the margin blew out to nearly 30 points during the third quarter before settling at 20.

Germany’s recent qualifying form reads impressively. Their record includes wins over Israel (89-69), Cyprus (83-64), and Croatia (91-89 in overtime on March 1), sitting alongside their EuroBasket 2025 triumph where Dennis Schroder earned MVP honours.

Their only qualifying loss came against Croatia (93-88 on February 28), though they avenged it three days later with the overtime win.

Israel opened the campaign with back-to-back defeats to Germany and Croatia (85-71) before steadying things with two wins over Cyprus: 94-54 on February 27 and 83-54 on March 1, 2026.

Those results secured their passage to the Second Round, but they did little to change the broader picture. When missing Avdija and other NBA-based players, Israel’s record against top-tier European teams has been poor, and they’re heading into this one undermanned again.

Israel’s NBA Stars Missing Again as Riga Becomes Reluctant Home

Israel’s squad is significantly weakened for this window. Deni Avdija has not been released by the Portland Trail Blazers, while Ben Saraf is also unavailable. Those two absences gut Israel’s scoring and playmaking capacity at the highest level.

The problems don’t stop there. Several key domestic players, including Yam Madar, Guy Palatin, and Roman Sorkin, have been affected by the Israeli domestic league finals between Hapoel and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Coach Ariel Beit Halachmi has publicly acknowledged “a lot of absences for many reasons,” setting expectations accordingly.

To compound matters, Israel are playing their nominal home game in Riga due to the ongoing security situation, meaning limited crowd support in what should be a fortress fixture.

Israel vs Germany Betting Markets

The market predictably favours Germany here, and it’s hard to argue against the world’s second-ranked side given the gulf in available talent.

Head to our odds page at Sportsbet for the latest prices across all markets for this qualifier.

The spread market is where things get interesting. Germany’s 20-point win in November came under near-identical circumstances, with Israel similarly depleted.

The question isn’t whether Germany are superior, but whether they can replicate or exceed that margin against a side with even less preparation time due to domestic league commitments.

Totals punters should note that Germany play a controlled, intelligent brand of basketball rather than running-and-gunning. Israel’s offence tends to stall without their primary creators, which could suppress the combined score.

Israel vs Germany Prediction: Our Pick

Germany should have far too much quality for a depleted Israel side, and the spread looks generous given what happened in November.

The 89-69 scoreline from the reverse fixture provides the blueprint. Israel were missing Avdija and key domestic players then, and they’re missing them again now. Germany, meanwhile, roll out a settled squad led by Schroder and Franz Wagner, battle-tested by consecutive major tournament triumphs.

Israel’s record against quality FIBA opposition without their NBA stars has been damning - we’ve seen it repeatedly in recent windows.

Playing in a neutral venue in Riga rather than in front of a passionate home crowd removes another potential equaliser. Beit Halachmi’s candid comments about squad availability suggest even he isn’t expecting miracles.

The one risk is motivation. Germany are in a strong qualifying position with a 3-1 record entering this final First Round window, and could theoretically ease off the gas. 

But with standings implications carrying into the Second Round, there’s little incentive to coast.

We’re backing Germany to cover the spread and win this one comfortably, just as they did eight months ago.