China fought back from 14 points down at halftime in Okinawa in late February to stun Japan 87-80, one of two remarkable comeback wins China pulled off in Window 2.

China won their first qualifier meeting 87-80 back in February and now face Japan again in what will be their second encounter in these qualifiers and a decisive Window 3 clash with both teams looking to strengthen their Second Round positions.

• Competition: FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 Asian Qualifiers, Group B, Window 3
• Venue: Liaoning Gymnasium, Shenyang
• Date: Thursday, July 3, 2026
• Start Time: 9:30 PM AEST (Thursday)

China vs Japan Form and Head to Head

These two met for the first time in these qualifiers during Window 2 in late February, with China claiming that 87-80 victory in Okinawa after overcoming a 47-33 halftime deficit with five third-quarter three-pointers.

The momentum swing in that game was brutal: Japan led by 15 at one point before China flipped the script entirely in the second half.

Japan had previously ended an 88-year losing streak against China in major FIBA competition during the Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers back in February 2024, so this rivalry has been heating up.

Japan sit atop Group B at 3-1, while China have clawed back to 2-2 after an 0-2 start. China’s turnaround across Window 2 was remarkable, winning both games via second-half comebacks.

Japan’s sole blemish remains that February collapse, where a 15-of-27 free-throw shooting night proved costly down the stretch.

Hu Jinqiu’s Dominance and Oketani’s Selection Puzzle

Hu Jinqiu was the standout performer in the February meeting, posting 20 points and 12 rebounds to anchor China’s comeback.

He gives Guo Shiqiang’s side a genuine interior presence alongside guards Zhao Rui and Hu Mingxuan. Zhang Zhenlin adds another dimension as a versatile forward.

Japan will lean on Yuta Watanabe and the sharpshooting Keisei Tominaga, while naturalized centre Alex Kirk provides a physical post presence. Head coach Dai Oketani, who replaced Tom Hovasse in early February, is still bedding in his system. Yuki Togashi’s playmaking remains vital to Japan’s offensive flow.

China vs Japan Betting Markets

With qualification stakes on the line for both sides, this shapes up as the marquee fixture of Window 3. China’s match result market is worth close attention given their momentum swing across the campaign, while the totals market looks interesting given the firepower on both rosters.

You’ll find the full range of markets for this one over at Sportsbet.

The player props market could also deliver value. Hu Jinqiu’s rebounding numbers have been consistently strong, and Tominaga’s three-point output tends to spike in high-stakes qualifiers. Both sides have shown they can put up points in a hurry, so individual scoring lines deserve a look.

China vs Japan Prediction: Our Pick

China look capable of making it two from two against Japan in these qualifiers, and we fancy the overs to land in what should be a high-octane qualifier. Check the China vs Japan odds for the latest markets on this one.

The momentum tells its own story. China started this campaign 0-2 and have since reeled off back-to-back comeback wins, including that 87-80 reversal against this very opponent.

Hu Jinqiu’s 20-point, 12-rebound performance in February showed China have the interior firepower to match Japan’s perimeter threats, and Guo Shiqiang’s squad have clearly grown in confidence across each window.

On totals, the February meeting between these two produced attacking basketball. Japan’s pace through Tominaga and Watanabe, combined with China’s three-point volume (five triples in a single quarter in February), points towards another high-scoring affair. 

Japan’s free-throw struggles extend possessions and inflate scoring, which only helps the overs case.