Kristian Kullamae’s three-pointer with five seconds left in overtime. That’s the last memory Slovenia have of playing Estonia, and it won’t be far from their minds as they travel to Tallinn for a qualification decider that could define both nations’ World Cup hopes.

• Competition: FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers, First Round, Window 3
• Venue: Unibet Arena, Tallinn, Estonia
• Date: Friday, July 3, 2026
• Start Time: 2:00 AM AEST (Saturday, July 4)

Estonia vs Slovenia Form and Head to Head

Estonia already own the bragging rights in this campaign, having pulled off a stunning 94-93 overtime road win in Koper back in November. Henri Drell’s 29 points and six assists drove that result, while Kullamae delivered the dagger from beyond the arc.

Estonia sit at 2-2 in Group H after four games, while Slovenia responded to their opening loss with three consecutive wins to lead the group at 3-1. Gregor Hrovat (23 points) and Ziga Samar (15) were Slovenia’s best in that overtime defeat, but neither could prevent the collapse.

Doncic’s Absence Looms Large Over Slovenia’s Campaign

Slovenia’s entire qualifying cycle has been defined by one absence. Luka Dončić has withdrawn from the campaign entirely to spend time with his daughters as he pursues joint custody, stripping the visitors of their generational talent.

The squad is expected to be strengthened by the availability of Vlatko Cancar and Edo Muric, adding EuroLeague-level depth to a team led by Klemen Prepelic and Alen Omic.

Estonia, meanwhile, are expected to be at full strength. Drell and Kullamae form one of the most dangerous backcourt duos in European qualifying, and the Unibet Arena crowd will be raucous for what amounts to a do-or-die fixture.

Estonia vs Slovenia Betting Markets

The stakes couldn’t be clearer. Estonia must win both remaining games to realistically finish in the top three and advance, while Slovenia can effectively seal qualification with a victory here. That desperation factor makes Estonia’s match result market worth a close look.

You’ll find the full range of markets for this one over at Sportsbet, including player props that could prove valuable given the individual performances we’ve seen in this series.

Drell’s points market is particularly interesting given his track record of stepping up when Estonia need him most. His 29-point explosion against Slovenia in Window 1 set the tone for what has become a fiercely competitive head-to-head.

Estonia vs Slovenia Prediction: Our Pick

Estonia look well placed to complete the double over Slovenia at Unibet Arena, and Henri Drell’s points line shapes as the standout player prop.

The data supports both selections. Estonia have already beaten this Slovenia side once without home court advantage, winning 94-93 in overtime on the road. Now they return to Tallinn where the crowd factor tips the scales further in their favour.

Slovenia’s 3-1 record is strong, though their wins over Czechia tell two different stories — a dominant 99-59 victory in Koper and a hard-fought 86-84 comeback win in Jihlava. 

Without Doncic, their offensive ceiling still sits below what you’d expect from a nation ranked among Europe’s best. Cancar and Muric returning helps, but neither replaces what Doncic brings.

Drell is the key. He dropped 29 points against these exact opponents in November and averaged 19 per game across the qualifying campaign.

In a must-win scenario, Estonia’s offence runs through him. The risk is Slovenia’s improved depth with Cancar back, but Estonia’s combination of desperation, home court, and a proven blueprint against this opponent makes them the right side.