Australia and France will meet in Round 2 of the 2026 Nations Championship, with both having lost their opening games by the narrowest of margins.

Set to be played on Saturday, July 11 at 17:40 AEST, Australia were edged out by Ireland in a close-fought 33-31 defeat, while France were beaten 34-32 by the Kiwis.

Quick Picks

Our pick: France to win

Value bet: France in the handicap

Long shot: Most points in 2nd half

Betting Preview

Australia put in a positive performance against Ireland in a game that many had been concerned heading into. They hadn’t been performing all that well, but proved to the doubters that they could, only losing in dramatic circumstances.

However, their task on Saturday could be much more difficult than it already was, as they will be without two key players. Fly-half Carter Gordon and loose forward Tom Hooper have both had to withdraw from the squad due to injury, with both also set to miss the remaining games in July.

This will force Joe Schmidt to look elsewhere and consider a different tactical strategy that had proved to be effective for a limited time against the Irish.

Uncapped Harry McLaughlin-Phillips could be used, but it’s more likely the experienced utility back Ben Donaldson will come into the lineup.

France will be without their own key stars after their narrow defeat to the Kiwis. The record-breaking winger Damian Penaud will be out with a lower-body ailment, while head coach Fabien Galthie will have to make his own tactical changes heading into the game against the Wallabies.

They opted to leave Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Matthieu Jalibert at home for the All Blacks Test; Bielle-Biarrey is being rested for the entirety of the July series, while Jalibert could start at fullback.

Betting Markets to Watch

The early Test match rugby odds in the pre-match moneyline market have France as the moderate favourites. Despite their defeat to New Zealand, France are widely considered one of the main favourites to win the tournament, having had success in the Six Nations and boasting a strong squad.

Although they will be without key players themselves, Australia also have their own absences, which are huge for the way that they play. This is likely why the odds are as wide as they are in terms of the line.

There is better value in the handicap , with France (-7.5) offering value. Despite the Wallabies being at home or in good conditions, and being able to potentially keep it tight, the quality that the France squad has suggests that they could win by a margin of 8+ points.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Australia vs France betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a France win.

Our long shot is for the most points to be scored in the 2nd half.

Scoring is slightly higher in second halves due to fatigue, more broken play, and teams chasing the game.

With both missing key players, the way the two teams have to set up could lead to more points being scored later in the game than in the first 40 minutes.