New Zealand will host Italy in Round 2 of the 2026 Nations Championship in Wellington on Saturday, July 11, 15:10 AEST.

The All Blacks defeated France in their opening game of this new tournament, winning a close game 34-32, while Italy would experience defeat to Japan in theirs, losing 27-10 in Tokyo.

Quick Picks

Our pick: New Zealand to win

Value bet: Italy in the handicap

Long shot: New Zealand under in total team points (-47.5)

Betting Preview

News suggests that the All Blacks will make several personnel changes to the squad for the game against Italy after their heroics against France last weekend.

Tupou Vaa’i and Patrick Tuipulotu could be available after missing that game through injury, as could Pasilio Tosi after being monitored.

Of the 23 involved in the matchday against France, three on the bench were new faces to the All Blacks, while nine in the 34-man squad have yet to play for the team this year under Dave Rennie.

Jordie Barrett also noted that there was a lot of fatigue within the team after the France game, which could see them line up very differently against Italy. Ardie Savea could be key, especially as New Zealand are expected to dominate the ball.

Italy were shocked by Japan in their Round 1 contest and will want to bounce back, although they will have one of the most difficult challenges in international rugby when they take on the All Blacks. They dominated the ball, but were punished by their mistakes.

Captain Michele Lamaro will need to be at his very best, using his workrate and discipline to try and slow down the attacks, while fly-half Paolo Garbisi will need to control as much of the game as possible.

Juan Ignacio Brex & Tommaso Menoncello will need to try to shut down the All Blacks and counter as much as they can.

Betting Markets to Watch

Unsurprisingly, New Zealand are heavy favourites to win in the moneyline. As value is short here, finding it elsewhere is worth exploring.

The handicap is perhaps slightly better, with Italy at +31.5 perhaps offering the better odds. While many are expecting a blowout, Italy have shown they can keep things close, and have significantly improved in 2026.

They had a solid Six Nations, with surprise results along the way.

The more interesting market is the total match points market , with the under offering value. The line is 64.5, and we think this game could be a lot closer than has been initially priced.

Our Prediction

Check the latest New Zealand vs Italy betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a New Zealand win.

As a long shot, we think the New Zealand total points market has value in the under.

The line has been set at 47.5, with the over favoured. Still, Italy have proven to be difficult to break down when they don’t make errors, and they could be on top of their game when they face one of the very best.