The Turnbull Stakes, run over 2000m at Flemington, holds a special place in the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival as a turning-point race for horses heading in different directions in the following weeks.
The eyes of trainers, owners and punters are set firmly on horses from two divisions – the weight-for-age stars heading towards the Cox Plate and the handicap stayers chasing the riches in the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. A poor performance in the Turnbull can mean it’s “back to the drawing board” with little time to resurrect the campaign.
The Turnbull Stakes is unique in that it is neither weight-for-age nor handicap. The conditions are set weights and penalties, with the multiple Group 1 winners having to carry penalties of 4kg. The minimum weights are 55kg for males 5YO or older (2kg less for mares); 54kg for 4YOs (2kg less for mares. In this case, Via Sistina gets a 4kg penalty to carry 57kg. Last year, Via Sistina narrowly beat Buckaroo in the Turnbull Stakes before breaking a record to win the Cox Plate, joining Winx (2017-18) and nine others to win the double since 1948. She returns in 2025 to attempt to repeat Winx’s achievement of winning the double in consecutive years.
Turnbull Stakes 2025 Preview and Details
Track: Flemington.
Distance/type: 2000m. Set weights & penalties.
Date: Saturday, 4 October.
Total prize money: $750,000
First prize: $450,000
Turnbull Stakes – Race and Time: Race 8 (4.25 pm)
Weather and Track
The Flemington track was rated a Good 4 on Wednesday. The BOM is predicting showers on Wednesday and up to 9mm to fall on Thursday, before fine weather for Friday and Saturday. Expect the track to be Good 4 with some give.
The rail is out 9 metres for the entire circuit. Last year, with the same rail position and on a Soft 6 track, the winner Via Sistina and runner-up Buckaroo came from the back half of the field.
The Trainers
Chris Waller has won six of the past 10 Turnbull Stakes. He shares the record with the semi-retired Lee Freedman. Waller can be confident of a seventh with his strong representation of five starters, including last year’s winner Via Sistina and the exciting young mare Aeliana.
Ciaron Maher won with Gold Trip in 2023 and Smokin’ Romans in 2022. This year he saddles Cups contenders Zardozi and Middle Earth.
The only other past-winning trainer with a runner this year is Gai Waterhouse (training in partnership with Adrian Bott), who is represented by Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup contender Sir Delius.
The Jockeys
Last year, Damian Lane filled in for James McDonald to win the Turnbull Stakes on Via Sistina. This year McDonald will ride the great mare. His only previous win in this race was on Hartnell in 2016. Lane hasn’t been left out by trainer Chris Waller, who has booked him to ride his rising star Aeliana.
The only other jockeys with a Turnbull Stakes trophy on their mantelpiece are Mark Zahra, who will ride Middle Earth for Ciaron Maher, Craig Williams (Sir Delius) and Jye McNeil (Land Legend). Zahra won on the Waller-trained Verry Elleegant in 2020 and Williams won on Green Moon in 2012. Both horses went on to win the Melbourne Cup. McNeil won on Kings Will Dream in 2019.
Jordan Childs (Golden Path) attempts to win his first Turnbull Stakes, a race his famous father, Greg, won three times between 1998 and 2002.
Jamie Melham has been riding Zardozi, but she has jumped off to ride her Caulfield Cup mount, Half Yours. Blake Shinn sticks with Antino and Michael Dee will ride Melbourne Cup contender Adelaide River for trainer Kris Lees.
The Speed Map
Fourteen starters should ensure a genuine tempo in the Turnbull Stakes. It should be an exciting, tactical affair.
Interestingly, trainer Chris Waller, who has last year’s winner and firm favourite Via Sistina has accepted with River Of Stars, who runs her best raced when bowling along in front. It’s a clever move. She should ensure the race is run at a good tempo. Via Sistina is awkwardly placed in barrier one, so a good tempo will help her chances.
Others likely to go forward will be Deakin, Sir Delius, Golden Path and Adelaide River. The horse who maps the best is Half Yours, who should tuck in behind the speed from barrier four.
Point of Interest
Looking ahead: Last year, the winners of the Cox Plate (Via Sistina), Caulfield Cup (Duke De Sessa) and Melbourne Cup (Knight’s Choice) ran in the Turnbull Stakes.
Turnbull Stakes 2025 Racing Tips
The Turnbull Top Tip
Via Sistina
Via Sistina won this race last year, narrowly beating stablemate Buckaroo. She was coming off a poor run in the Makybe Diva Stakes. This year, her third in the Makybe Diva, off an unsuitable dawdling tempo, was sound. The 2000m is her sweet spot. Barrier one is a negative, but jockey James McDonald is a master at finding the right run.
The Turnbull Dangers
Aeliana
Trainer Chris Waller’s young star. She chased home Via Sistina in the Winx Stakes and then beat her home in the Makybe Diva when she had a softish run. She is ready to peak at 2000m and if there is a horse who can beat Via, it is her.
Sir Delius
Tremendous win in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m), when he didn’t handle Caulfield. He will find Flemington more to his liking and can be expected to roll forward from barrier 14. He’s tough and will take running down.
Half Yours
One of a couple of exciting young stayers in this race. Brilliant in winning the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield, which saw him sent to the top of the Caulfield Cup betting. Jamie Melham rides. Expect him to run well from barrier four, and he won’t mind if it rains.
The Turnbull Roughies
Antino
Like most of the horses back in the field in the Makybe Diva Stakes, he had no chance when Mr Brightside walked in front. He should be ready to peak, and gets a barrier (5) that will allow him to settle closer. A win wouldn’t shock.
Middle Earth
This highly regarded import is trainer Ciaron Maher’s top Melbourne Cup home. He should be peaking after two runs from a spell. He gets on the limit of 55kg (down from 59kg), and spacious Flemington looks to be his right track.
Turnbull Stakes Same Race Multi (pick a combination)
Via Sistina – top two
Aeliana & Sir Delius – top three
Half Yours – top four
Antino – top five
Middle Earth & Zardozi – top seven