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Underwood Stakes Prediction and Odds

SB Staff|17/09/2026|
Underwood Stakes Prediction

 

A 1,800m Group 1 race, the 2026 Underwood Stakes is one of the top races to be held at Caulfield each spring.

The Underwood is also regarded as an important spring guide for the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup paths. It will be held on Saturday, September 19, with the race going to post at 15:35 AEST.

But what could be in store for runners and riders?

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Cosmic Crusader to win

Value bet: Aeliana each-way

Long shot: Buckaroo each-way

 

Betting Preview

 

The 2026 Underwood Stakes is a compact but genuinely strong Group 1 of nine runners at Caulfield on Saturday, built around several proven weight-for-age horses stepping up toward their major spring targets.

Unlike a handicap, every male runner carries 59kg, while Aeliana gets the mares’ allowance and carries 57kg. That makes class, fitness, tempo and positioning especially important in a small field where there is little room for excuses.

The key question, however, is whether Cosmic Crusader’s current form and ideal map can overcome the established class of Lindermann, Buckaroo, Birdman and Aeliana.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

Cosmic Crusader has been made the early favourite to win this race, and he has done little wrong in his first Melbourne preparation.

He bolted in over 1,200m in the Bletchingly Stakes, beat Private Eye and Evaporate in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes, then finished third in the Memsie after being beaten 3.5 lengths by Beiwacht over 1,400m.

The 1,800m is far more suitable now, particularly given he won Perth’s Group 1 Northerly Stakes over the same distance last summer.

He has shown strong Caulfield form already and has barrier three, which gives him great positioning.

Lindermann is another horse offering some value. He comes here off a successful Chelmsford Stakes defence over 1,600m.

The inside draw of barrier one gives him the opportunity to lead or settle immediately behind the speed, as many expect him to be the likely tempo controller. He has form at 2,000m, so the distance is really not an issue.

Aeliana is an interesting option, as her autumn preparation included Group 1 victories in the Ranvet Stakes and Tancred Stakes, establishing her as one of the country’s elite middle-distance mares.

The step to 1,800m, Damian Lane's booking, and the 2kg mares’ allowance are all significant positives for her chances of winning. She will need to improve on her Winx Stakes return efforts, though, where she finished last.

Birdman has value, as he previously won the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield over this distance and is also a Doomben Cup winner, meaning the Underwood distance should suit much better than the 1,400m he finished sixth in at Memsie.

 

Our Prediction

 

Check the latest horse racing betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our main prediction is for Cosmic Crusader to be the likely winner. He is the in-form horse and the one to beat heading into this competitive meet.

Buckaroo has value as a long shot ; he was the Underwood winner in 2024 and runner-up last year. He was fifth in the Memsie first-up and should be fitter, but needs to overcome a wider draw.

He owns a strong Caulfield record, including eight starts for one win, three seconds and two thirds. If you are new to win, each-way and value picks like these, it is worth brushing up on how horse race betting works before placing your bets.

1. Lindermann (1)
W: 59.0kgF: 922x91
J: Blake Shinn
T: C J Waller
Win
Place
2. Buckaroo (8)
W: 59.0kgF: 0x25x5
J: Mark Zahra
T: C J Waller
Win
Place
3. Attrition (7)
W: 59.0kgF: 680x90
J: Jamie Mott
T: Mitchell Freedman
Win
Place
4. Pinstriped (2)
W: 59.0kgF: 45x442
J: Lachlan Neindorf
T: E Jusufovic
Win
Place
5. Cosmic Crusader (3)
W: 59.0kgF: 12x113
J: William Pike
T: Andrea Leek
Win
Place

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