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Spanish Grand Prix Prediction and Betting Odds

SB Staff|10/09/2026|
Spanish GP

 

F1 fans get their first look at Madrid’s shiny new track, the Madring, as it hosts the Spanish Grand Prix on Monday, September 13 (midnight AEST).

Kimi Antonelli’s enthralling win in his home Italian Open on Monday got his title charge back on track, and with teammate George Russell finishing in second, once again it was complete domination from Mercedes.

But will they back that up with more success in Madrid?

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Kimi Antonelli to Win

Value bet: George Russell Top 3 Finish

Long shot: Charles Leclerc Fastest Lap

 

Betting Preview

 

Although far from the disaster it reads on paper, Antonelli hadn’t won in six races prior to his trip to Monza.

The fact that the Italian was able to climb from 19th on the grid to win the race is testament both to his talents and the consistent brilliance of the Mercedes W17, which is by far and away the fastest car on the grid.

Antonelli’s teammate at the German manufacturer, George Russell, finished in second place, with a relatively large gap to Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen in third.

It was a noteworthy return to form for Mercedes, given that they hadn’t won since the Belgian GP back in July, so they will be full of confidence ahead of what they do really, really well – street circuit racing.

The Madring winds its way around the IFEMA Exhibition Centre in the Spanish capital, with some similarities to the city landmark tracks in Miami and Las Vegas.

But in terms of pure racing, this is quintessential street circuit action; akin to Monaco and Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal.

You can probably guess who won the Monaco and Canadian GPs this season: that man Antonelli, with George Russell in pole at the latter.

The Brit won the season’s other street race at Albert Park, confirming Mercedes’ absolute dominance of the street races on the Formula 1 2026 schedule.

For that reason, it would take a brave punter to bet against a repeat in Madrid…

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

There are numerous markets available for F1 betting online, but starting with the most obvious makes sense here.

Antonelli has been in unstoppable form at times this season, and his dominance of street circuits – allied to the ideal make-up of his W17 for this style of racing – suggests that the Italian can be backed to win this week.

He could very well be chased home by his Mercedes teammate again, given Russell’s own penchant for street racing.

The Brit is in decent form as well, having recorded podium finishes in his last three races, so Russell for a top three finish in Madrid could be worth investigating.

Although something of a curveball selection, Charles Leclerc has shown at times this season that he is still able to get a tune from his Ferrari.

Indeed, he posted the fastest lap at both the Hungarian and Dutch Grand Prix, suggesting that while the Scuderia are struggling for consistency, their top end is still mighty fast.

As a proud Monegasque, Leclerc was raised on a diet of street circuit racing, which was in evidence as he bagged third and fourth place finishes in the Australian and Canadian Grand Prix races earlier this season.

So, there could well be scope to back Leclerc to post the fastest lap in Madrid.

 

Our Prediction

 

Browse the latest Spanish Grand Prix betting odds at Sportsbet.

We are predicting yet another Mercedes 1-2 in Madrid, with Antonelli potentially leading Russell home in another fine race for the German team.

Don’t discount Leclerc in terms of speed, though.

Spanish Grand Prix
11 Sep 21:30
Arvid Lindblad
Charles Leclerc
Gabriel Bortoleto
George Russell
Kimi Antonelli
Lando Norris
Lewis Hamilton
Liam Lawson
Max Verstappen
Nico Hulkenberg
Oscar Piastri
Pierre Gasly
Franco Colapinto
Yuki Tsunoda
Fernando Alonso
Oliver Bearman
Esteban Ocon
Lance Stroll
Alex Albon
Carlos Sainz
Sergio Perez
Valtteri Bottas

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