Turhan vs Baumgardner Prediction and Betting Odds

Headlining the MVPW7 card is an IBF World Female Lightweight Title fight between Elif Nur Turhan and Alycia Baumgardner.

The two will meet in the ring in Arlington, Texas, on Monday, November 9, with the card set to begin at 09:15 AEDT.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Baumgardner to win

Value bet: Baumgardner by decision

Long shot: Baumgardner by KO/TKO

Tale of the Tape

Turhan enters as the IBF World Female Lightweight champion, having gone unbeaten throughout her 14-fight professional career. Baumgardner is considered one of the best in the sport, making this a highly intriguing clash.

What’s more interesting is that this fight will be contested under men’s rules, with each round lasting 3 minutes instead of 2.

A total of 10 rounds are scheduled, meaning both could fight for 10 minutes longer than any other fight that has gone the distance for them, raising questions about stamina. Baumgardner has experience of this, whereas Turhan doesn’t.

Turhan’s statistics are first:

• Age - 31 vs 32
• Height - 5'7" (170cm) vs 5'6" (168cm)
• Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
• Record - 14-0-0 vs 18-1-0
• KO Record - 8 vs 7

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last fights?

Turhan’s last five fights:

• Gabriela Tellez - Win (UD, 10) - Jun 2026
• Taylah Gentzen - Win (SD, 10) - Jan 2026
• Beatriz Ferreira - Win (TKO, 5) - Dec 2025
• Rima Ayadi - Win (TKO, 6) - Aug 2025
• Shauna Browne - Win (TKO, 1) - Mar 2025

Baumgardner's last five fights:

• Bo Mi Re Shin - Win (UD, 10) - Apr 2026
• Leila Beaudoin - Win (UD, 12) - Dec 2025
• Jennifer Miranda - Win (UD, 10) - Jul 2025
• Delfine Persoon - NC (4) - Sep 2024
• Christina Linardatou - Win (UD, 10) - Jul 2023

Betting Markets to Watch

The Grade A Fights betting odds currently reflect Baumgardner as a huge favourite, with her method of victory likely by decision.

There’s not too much value here, but the odds would suggest that despite her stepping up in weight, she’ll have too much for Turhan, who hasn’t fought an opponent of this level.

Still, Turhan has credible power; she’s the defending champion and packs a punch, as she proved in her title win over Beatriz Ferreira in December 2025.

It could still be a dangerous move for Baumgardner to make, given she has to compete at a level she hasn’t been at for a little while.

Nonetheless, “The Bomb” knows what it takes to win, having landed KO/TKO victories against Gabriella Mezei and Cristina del Valle Pacheco in 2019 (both in the first round).

The fight to go the distance offers middle value compared to Baumgardner’s outright and to win by decision; if you strongly believe these three outcomes are likely, a combined bet maximises value.

If combined bets and method-of-victory markets are new territory, our guide to how boxing betting works breaks down how these selections fit together.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Turhan vs Baumgardner betting odds.

Our prediction is a likely Baumgardner win, with a decision victory the most likely outcome.

For the long shot, Baumgardner KO/TKO has significant value on offer. As explained above, she’s had two knockout victories at lightweight before.

However, her last win by this method was in November 2021 (Terri Harper). Since then, she’s been comfortable winning rounds and just working hard in the ring.