Ten teams. One cup. For the first time, the AFL's expanded finals series means a pair of wildcard games stand between four clubs and a genuine crack at September. However, pundits and punters alike doubt the chances of a Wildcard team making a run deep into finals. Time will tell, but this got us thinking, how do you sort the contenders from the pretenders?

Fremantle finished on top in 2026, with fresh air second. A 19-4 home and away season says it all, but the bookies aren't convinced of the merits of the minor-premiership. Brisbane, sitting third, are the back-to-back premiers and the favourites to win the whole thing, after all; experience counts when it comes to the big dance. 

So, who actually wins this thing and where is the value?

Certainly something to be said for dark horses like Carlton, Melbourne or Geelong; who have all shown they can beat anyone on their day. We're counting down all 10 finalists by market price, from the longest shots to the favourite, with a look at where each club’s path leads.

Odds are subject to change.*

Who Will Win the AFL Grand Final?

10. Western Bulldogs - $81.00

Something has clicked at the Kennel since that dire North Melbourne defeat. Ed Richards is reminding everyone he belongs among the game's elite midfielders and alongside Marcus Bontempelli the Dogs have the engine room to trouble anyone.

Aaron Naughton's fitness and the side's reliance on him remain live concerns.

Friday night at the MCG is winnable; after that, the mountain gets very steep, very quickly. Even the Bont won’t be able to save them.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Collingwood at the MCG, Friday, August 28, 7:40pm.

9. Collingwood - $81.00

Craig McRae's decision to play a full-strength lineup in a dead rubber Round 24 already looks costly with Scott Pendlebury injured for a few weeks.

Still, the Dogs are probably a team that any club would be happy with drawing in this finals series.

The Pies may have the best player in the league in Nick Daicos, but with an ageing roster, key players out and a long run ahead of them in September, the odds are they’ll bow out in the next fortnight.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Friday, August 28, 7:40pm

8. Melbourne - $51.00

Round 24's biggest losers. A 15-8 season deserved better than a wildcard game against the competition's form side and the Demons head to the MCG carrying injuries across key positions at the worst possible moment.

Max Gawn and Kozzy Pickett give them a real shot against anyone, if they get through Saturday the draw softens considerably; Adelaide away, then possibly a depleted Sydney.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Carlton at the MCG, Saturday, August 29, 7:35pm

The Dark Horses

7. Carlton - $34.00

Carlton’s turnaround under Josh Fraser needs to be studied.

These Blues are red hot coming into Wildcard Round after firing a warning shot across the competition as they defeated the league leading Freo Dockers.

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh are humming. But coming from 10th means winning four straight to reach the decider and at some point, this fairytale has to end.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday, August 29, 7:35pm

6. Sydney Swans - $21.00

Second on the ladder, 18-5, 136.1 per cent and $21. That tells you how heavily the market has discounted a side missing several of its best players.

The Swans are the least intimidating top-two finisher in years, though there's every chance the group is galvanised by a torrid few weeks. Errol Gulden and Chad Warner remain elite. A semi-final against Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood or the Bulldogs is genuinely winnable but after that, who knows?

Next game: Qualifying final vs Brisbane at the SCG, Saturday, September 5, 3:15pm

5. Adelaide Crows - $19.00

Melbourne's Round 24 loss to the Bulldogs saved the Crows from the wildcard round and dropped them into the friendliest position outside the top three.

They host their elimination final at Adelaide Oval with something to prove after straight sets exit at home last year.

Izak Rankine is peaking at the right time, in career-best form over the last few weeks and looking dangerous with every touch.

Few clubs carry a genuine game-breaker like that. Between the softer finals run and the potential of this team, we reckon Adelaide are in with a solid chance of making the Grand Final.

Next game: Elimination final vs the Friday or Saturday wildcard winner at Adelaide Oval, Saturday, September 5, 7:35pm

4. Geelong Cats - $17.00

Geelong are flying under the radar this season. The reality is that they’re coming into finals footy on a six-match winning streak, the longest of the top 10.

But fifth place has handed them a rough draw. They could well face bogey side Carlton, who've won four of their last five meetings, in a home elimination final that is inexplicably at the MCG.

Max Holmes returning would help enormously, but will they still be around by the time he recovers?

One thing we know for sure, Chris Scott’s men have the experience for another deep finals run.

Next game: Elimination final vs the Friday or Saturday wildcard winner at the MCG, Friday, September 4, 7:40pm

The Contenders

3. Hawthorn - $9.50

Sam Mitchell's men will be locked in at training this week; they face the toughest assignment in the league first up on the agenda.

The Hawks will head West to take on Fremantle who have easily been the best and most consistent performers all year.

Their third placed finish gets them two bites at the cherry, but even still, their form against the top sides this year has been lacklustre.

They boast a healthy list with stars like Jai Newcombe, Jarman Impey, Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan and Jack Gunston all in good form; the odds could roll in these guys can remain fit.

Definitely the highest chance of winning the flag of any Melbourne Club, but in the same breath, straight sets is a very real possibility.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Thursday, September 3, 8:10pm

2. Fremantle - $3.10

The Round 24 loss to Carlton may mean nothing as Freo had secured the minor premiership the week prior, but you’ve got to question how it affected their confidence heading into finals.

There is no denying, however that Freo have been out-and-out the best team all season.

Their harassing defence makes the best look average and the triple threat of Jye Amiss, Josh Treacy and Pat Voss are lethal inside-50.

They open their campaign with a qualifying final against a defensively suspect Hawthorn, then a prelim at home against whoever survives the bottom half.

Any one of those teams would be easy pickings for Fremantle who will enjoy the extra rest this week. With their form, draw and personnel; there’s a good chance of Freo making it to Grand Final week.

Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw run the show. The only question is whether they blink on the big stage.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, Thursday, September 3, 8:10pm

1. Brisbane Lions - $2.88

The back-to-back premiers are healthy at exactly the right time and thrashing Hawthorn a few weeks back delivered the percentage swing that locked in third and a home preliminary final.

Their defensive record still raises eyebrows with inconsistent performances all season but Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft give them midfield class few can match.

If they can beat the under-strength Swans in the qualifying final the path to a Gabba prelim opens right up.

Lions are every chance of repeating history and replicating the legendary 2001-2003 Brisbane premiers. Prepare to witness history and keep the party going from Fitzroy all the way to Fortitude Valley.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Sydney at the SCG, Saturday, September 5, 3:15pm

Who Will Win The 2026 AFL Grand Final?

Fremantle have the record, the players, the finals run and the home deck. Brisbane have the scar tissue and the September know-how.

We reckon that's the Grand Final and we're leaning towards the side that's already proved they’ve got what it takes to win one.

Betting tip: Brisbane Lions to def. Fremantle Dockers in the 2026 AFL Premiership Grand Final.

Odds are subject to change.*