The stakes don’t come much higher than this outside finals footy. Saints and Carlton will be feeling the nerves this weekend as they wait for crunchtime at Marvel on Sunday afternoon.
The match that will decide the success or failure of their entire season. Win and stay alive, lose and things get very difficult, very quickly.
Carlton arrive at Marvel in stunning form. Last Saturday's 154-78 demolition of reigning back-to-back premiers Brisbane was one of the performances of the season, featuring 16 different goal-kickers and a star performance from the lightning rod that is Jagga Smith.
It was the kind of result that flips the competition on its head (and if you check back to last weeks tip, we called it).
The Blues unexpectedly leapfrogged into the top 10, while Saints dropped to 11th on the ladder.
The Saints enter with their own confidence intact. A 107-88 loss to second-placed Sydney is no disgrace; Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was magnificent with 24 disposals and three goals and Max Hall added 23 disposals and three majors in another prolific double-act.
In a boost to St Kilda's preparations, gun recruit Jack Silvagni has passed his shoulder fitness test and is confirmed in the team; a significant in for Saints, who’ll need all hands on deck to take out the Carlton Club.
There is no level of hyperbole that is exceeds how excited we are for this one; this will be one of the best games this season as the Saints host the Blues to decide who survives in 2026.
For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our St Kilda vs Carlton Round 22 prediction and preview below.
St Kilda vs Carlton Blues Prediction and Betting Tips
Head-to-Head Prediction
This game needed no added storylines, but it has them anyway.
Silvagni's confirmation in the St Kilda team adds a layer of intrigue that even scriptwriters wouldn't dare engineer: the Saints' marquee recruit, cleared to play through a shoulder injury, lining up against the club he left and the teammates he left them for.
His presence matters for St Kilda both as a key defensive option and as a psychological statement about the group's readiness for this moment.
The tactical chess match through the midfield is where the contest could be decided. Hugh Boxshall has been deployed in a shutdown role with notable success in recent weeks and Cripps looms as the logical target for that assignment.
Neutralising the Blues' most powerful engine room option could be the difference in a game settled by the barest of margins.
On the other side, who Carlton sends to Wanganeen-Milera is the question nobody has an easy answer to. Lachlan Cowan can apply himself to that role when stationed at half-back, but once Nasiah gets the ball moving in open space, even the most disciplined defensive assignment becomes a desperate scramble.
Carlton's momentum is real and dangerous, 154-78 over Brisbane is no joke, it’s a statement. But Marvel Stadium on a Sunday night, with a wildcard spot on the line, feels like the kind of occasion that suits the Saints' edge-of-your-seat, high-risk brand of football.
We think this one goes down to the wire.
Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 1 point.
First Goal Scorer Prediction
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is the most dangerous player on the park on Sunday night, and this is the kind of stage we’re desperate to see him perform on.
Three goals against Sydney last week. Three goals in each of his best outings this season. With the Saints' season hanging in the balance, cometh the moment, cometh the Messiah.
He will come looking for the ball early and often; back him to find the scoreboard first.
Betting tip: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
Most Disposals Prediction
The numbers are extraordinary and the variance is real: 46, 32, 21, 46, 24 over his last five games tell you Wanganeen-Milera's output swings dramatically depending on how much attention he attracts.
With the season on the line, we’re thinking Ross Lyon and Nas have a plan to outsmart the taggers.
If this is the case, Sunday night might very well be another 46-disposal afternoon.
We’re thinking this weekend we’ll be seeing some more peak Nasiah footy.
Betting tip: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
Odds are subject to change.*
AFL Same Game Multi Tips
St Kilda vs Carlton Blues Team Lists
St Kilda Saints Confirmed Team List
FB: Jack Silvagni, Callum Wilkie, Liam Stocker
HB: Bradley Hill, Hunter Clark, Ryan Byrnes
C: Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Hugh Boxshall
HF: Jack Higgins, Campbell Lake, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
FF: Anthony Caminiti, Rowan Marshall, Mason Wood
Foll: Tom De Koning, Hugo Garcia, Mitch Owens
I/C: Marcus Windhager, Mattaes Phillipou, Dan Butler, Liam O'Connell, Cooper Sharman
Carlton Blues Confirmed Team List
FB: Wade Derksen, Nick Haynes, Harry Dean
HB: Oliver Florent, Mitch McGovern, Lachlan Cowan
C: Adam Cerra, Patrick Cripps, Blake Acres
HF: Francis Evans, Harry McKay, Talor Byrne
FF: Ben Ainsworth, Brodie Kemp, Cooper Lord
Foll: Marc Pittonet, Jagga Smith, Sam Walsh
I/C: Will Hayward, Harry Charleson, Tobie Travaglia, Oliver Hollands, George Hewett
St Kilda vs Carlton Blues Match Details
Date: Sunday, August 9, 2026
First Bounce: 7:20pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
How to Watch: Channel 7/7plus, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports
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