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AFL Opening Round Tips and Predictions

06/03/2025|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions
<p>The AFL season seems to kick off earlier and earlier and earlier – and thank God for that!</p> <p>I’ve done enough summer sports viewing. I am ready for the main event – AFL footy.</p> <p>Although the AFL is officially back, it’s only back via sample size with AFL HQ maintaining the need for an ‘Opening Round’ in the northeastern states.</p> <p>We’ll take whatever we can get but just open the season with all 18 teams next season, Mr. Dillon.</p> <p>Overall, I expect this to be the most even and unpredictable season in memory. I have 2-3 teams I fully expect to be finalists, 2-3 to have no shot at September action and a whole heap somewhere in the middle.</p> <p>Now that we’re all on the same page, here are my AFL Opening Round tips and predictions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Thursday, March 6, 7:50pm AEDT – The Gabba</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Should this clash go ahead, I believe we will learn plenty about both squads. Brisbane pleasantly surprised me in their pre-season match with Adelaide, looking sharper and far more advanced than I anticipated coming off the premiership – as well as five weeks less preparation than Adelaide.</p> <p>Not to get too ahead of myself, but Levi Ashcroft will play 250+ games. Lock that in. Logan Morris looks like he will be a 40+ goal scorer and Kai Lohmann may overtake Charlie Cameron as the Lions premier small forward.</p> <p>On the other side of the field, at this point, with 14 years of evidence from a Chris Scott-led squad, we know we’ll get a disciplined, finely tuned Geelong outfit.</p> <p>In round 6 last season, the Cats hammered Brisbane in a very wet and slippery clash, which is what we anticipate here.</p> <p>All summer I liked Geelong, but seeing is believing and I loved what the Lions did in their pre-season game. So yes, I’ve been sucked in by the practice matches.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong>Brisbane Lions by 10 points.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Levi Ashcroft 20+ disposals.</p> <p><em>*The AFL has announced this fixture will be rescheduled due to a forecasted dangerous weather event in Queensland.&nbsp;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, March 7, 7:40pm AEDT – SCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Can one player’s absence change a tip? Errol Gulden’s broken ankle will be a hammer blow for Sydney as they rely on his ball use, gut-running and class so often. Sure, others will get opportunities but losing All-Australians rarely ends well.</p> <p>Tom McCartin likely lines up at full forward but I’m only lukewarm on that as a permanent fixture. One reason being - it leaves the Swans awfully short-handed down back.</p> <p>Fortunately, the Hawks are hardly blessed with big forwards, but the time will come for McCartin to be needed down back.</p> <p>Brodie Grundy’s health is a watch. The big man has had – and currently has – some knee issues and he is north of 30. He was&nbsp;key to Sydney’s explosive beginning last season and when his form waned, so did theirs.</p> <p>The weight of expectation will be the Hawks’ largest enemy. I’m still unsure on how they’ll go.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong>Hawthorn by 5 points.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Nick Watson 3+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, March 8, 5:15pm AEDT – People First Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Suns likely enter Opening Round as the warmest favourite of any fixture. Not many have Essendon as genuine September contenders whereas plenty have Gold Coast right in the mix. Some almost demand they arrive.</p> <p>I am big on these Suns, but maybe we have to wait one more season for them to blossom fully. So many of their best dozen are still under 25 with more growth to come.</p> <p>But that should not stop them here. Whether it’s humid – or pouring rain – the advantage should be significant for the Suns.</p> <p>Ben King vs Ben McKay will be fun whilst young bulls Jed Walter and Zach Reid will likely clash inside the same fifty.</p> <p>The Suns are a shade deeper around the ball and that could be the difference in this one.</p> <p>Dons’ forwards, Caddy, Draper and Langford will need to stop Mac Andrew, Sam Collins and Charlie Ballard from taking numerous intercept marks if they want to have any hope here.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> Suns by 18 points.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Sam Flanders 30+ disposals.</p> <p><em>*The AFL has announced this fixture will be rescheduled due to a forecasted dangerous weather event in Queensland.&nbsp;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>GWS Giants vs Collingwood Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, March 9, 3:20pm AEDT – ENGIE Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The blockbuster of the weekend. The Giants, desperate for finals revenge after capitulating to Brisbane in a home semi up against the resurgent Pies, who are all in on season 2025.</p> <p>Both teams will be heading into this match pretty depleted with some serious star power riding the pine. Toby Bedford will go to Nick Daicos who'll be expected to carry a lot of the load in the middle with no Houston and no De Goey.</p> <p>Tom Green’s first possession and clearance dominance will be missed badly as the clash between Darcy Cameron and Kieran Briggs in the ruck will be pivotal.</p> <p>We also get another renewal of the Toby Greene v Brayden Maynard bout! Strap in folks.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong>GWS by 11 points.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Toby Greene 3+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL 2025 Premiership Odds</h2>
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