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Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Prediction - Round 21 2026

29/07/2026|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

Hawthorn have won seven on the trot as they travel to UTAS Stadium in Launceston, looking to extend their unbeaten run against North Melbourne.

The Hawks are the form team of the competition right now. A 132-39 annihilation of Essendon last Saturday was as complete a performance as you'll see from any team this season.

We saw it coming, the punters saw it coming; even Essendon probably saw it coming and Hawthorn delivered it too.

Jack Gunston slotted seven, Mabior Chol was everywhere and Jarman Impey continued his evolution into one of the game's elite distributors with 37 disposals from half-back.

That result leaves Hawthorn sitting just two points behind second-placed Sydney heading into the round. With the Swans faltering; a top two finish in sight for Hawks.

For North Melbourne, it was more of the same. A 93-62 loss to St Kilda last Sunday; their fourth consecutive defeat leaves Alastair Clarkson's side 13th on the ladder with an almost impossible run home.

Their final four matches of the regular season come against sides currently sitting ninth or above. The Roos 2026 finals hopes are all but deceased and we’re expecting Hawthorn to drive in that final nail.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Round 21 prediction and preview below.

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

The gap between these two sides heading into Round 21 is about as wide as it gets.

Hawthorn's midfield is the engine of everything they do. Jai Newcombe, Will Day, and Josh Ward form one of the most settled engine rooms in the competition, with Cam Mackenzie providing a quality option off the bench. Impey sitting behind them as the primary distributor has unlocked the next level.

When Hawthorn have the ball, Impey runs and creates. When they don't, he wins it back.

North Melbourne compete. They always compete. But Clarkson's side has yet to beat a team of genuine quality and without that breakthrough, their program comes under familiar scrutiny going into next season.

The Roos have also lost each of their last 27 away games when playing with a rest disadvantage, which is the sort of stat that's hard to ignore when you’re trying to find reasons to hope.  

The Launceston factor is real  Melbourne handed Hawthorn a lashing at this ground not long ago, so it's not infallible territory.

North might keep this tighter than the line suggests in the first half. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, though, it should be a comfortable Hawks victory.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 33 points.

 

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Nick Watson is the pick. Quick, clever and dangerous in front of goal, he's operating as Hawthorn's third forward and the North Melbourne defence will have other problems to deal with first, namely Jack Gunston.

When the Hawks hit the front early, Watson tends to be the first beneficiary.

Betting tip: Nick Watson first goal scorer.

 

Most Disposals Prediction

Thirty-four disposals one week. Thirty-seven the next. Jarman Impey is the form player of this competition and he is not slowing down.

He moves from half-back, collects the ball in space and finds targets in the corridor. Hawthorn are at their very best when he's doing exactly that.

North Melbourne's forward pressure won't cause him the kind of grief a top eight side might, which means expect him to run, carry and rack up another massive number here.

Betting tip: Jarman Impey most disposals.

 

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Nick Watson 4+ Goals / Hawthorn Win 1-39 / Harry Sheezel Anytime Goal Scorer.

 

*Odds are subject to change.

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Predicted Teams

 

Hawthorn Hawks Predicted Team List

FB: James Sicily, Tom Barrass, Blake Hardwick

HB: Jarman Impey, Josh Weddle, Josh Battle

C: Harry Morrison, Will Day, Massimo D'Ambrosio

HF: Dylan Moore, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan

FF: Nick Watson, Mitch Lewis, Jack Gunston

FOLL: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward

I/C: Noah Mraz, Bailey Macdonald, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald, Oliver Greeves

 

North Melbourne Predicted Team List

FB: Aidan Corr, Charlie Comben, Luke Parker

HB: Griffin Logue, Caleb Daniel, Colby McKercher

C: Matt Whitlock, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Dylan Stephens

HF: Charlie Spargo, Cooper Trembath, Jy Simpkin

FF: Cameron Zuhhaar, Nick Larkey, Paul Curtis

FOLL: Tristan Xerri, Finn O'Sullivan, Harry Sheezel

I/C: Cooper Harvey, Josh Goater, Bailey Scott, Zac Banch, Jack Darling

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Match Details

 

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026.

First Bounce: 1:35pm AEST

Location: University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston

How to Watch: Fox Footy / Kayo Sports

Hawthorn(-36.5)
North Melbourne(+36.5)

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