Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions - AFL Grand Final Preview 2025
25/09/2025|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions
<p>It’s time for the big one.</p>
<p>Geelong and Brisbane will battle it out on the last Saturday in September for the honour of being crowned premiers for the 2025 season. And with it, the title of the most successful team since 2000.</p>
<p>One side will leave the MCG on Saturday having won its fifth premiership since the turn of the century. </p>
<p>The Lions are back on the big stage for the third straight year and are chasing back-to-back flags for the first time since their iconic three-peat in the early 2000s. The Cats return to the big dance for the first time since their 2022 triumph and will be playing in their sixth Grand Final since 2006.</p>
<p>Heading into the finals series, we thought these were the two best sides in a stacked field — and thankfully, this is the matchup we’ve ended up with.</p>
<p>Both teams are stacked with superstars. The storylines and intrigue are everywhere. As with every Grand Final, there are the classic race-against-time injury concerns… and the tough-luck omissions, too.</p>
<p>It’s all set up perfectly for Saturday. So — who will be crowned premiers in 2025?</p>
<p>Let’s break it all down. For the latest team news, form, key matchups, analysis, and betting tips, read Sportsbet’s full Cats vs Lions AFL Grand Final preview below.</p>
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<h2>Geelong vs Brisbane Preview</h2>
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<p>The Cats are on an ominous eight-match winning streak, fine-tuning during a favourable run home before proving their premiership credentials with a pair of resounding finals victories.<br />
The perennial contenders on 100+ points in each of those finals (more on their scoring power later), with their attack humming and their gut-running midfielders transforming the way they play.</p>
<p>Before we go any further… can we just stop and marvel at Patrick Dangerfield again after what he did last Friday night??</p>
<p>The man is 35 years old — and he’s still capable of that in a game of footy. Even now, 359 games into his first-ballot Hall of Fame career, he’s still adding to his legacy. And you just know he’ll stop at nothing on Saturday to deliver the goods and claim a second premiership medal.</p>
<p>The Lions had built a strong record against the Cats, winning four straight — including both home-and-away clashes this season — before they were picked apart just three weeks ago in the Qualifying Final.<br />
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<p>Since then, though, they’ve rediscovered the best versions of themselves, with two dominant finals wins (minus a shaky second quarter against Collingwood last week), and a powerful second-half display to book their spot in a third straight Grand Final.</p>
<p>Young superstar — and Prince Charming’s long-lost twin — Will Ashcroft is already building an all-time finals résumé in a career that isn’t even 50 games old. He and Cam Rayner rolled up their sleeves after halftime against the Pies and produced a pair of huge performances to get the Lions back to the ‘G this week.</p>
<p>With every Grand Final, there’s always some selection intrigue — who’s racing the clock to prove their fitness, and who’ll be on the wrong end of a heartbreak story.<br />
This year’s tough-luck tale is Geelong champion defender Tom Stewart, who’s officially been ruled out after entering concussion protocols following a heavy tackle that left him dazed last Friday night.</p>
<p>That opens the door for the Cats to recall ruckman Rhys Stanley, who’s missed the first two finals with a hamstring injury. His return would allow Chris Scott to select his first-choice ruck and swing the ultra-versatile Mark Blicavs back to defence for coverage.</p>
<p>Geelong could also opt to leave Stanley out and bring in reliable defender Jed Bews. Bews hasn’t played much senior footy this season, due to injury and the depth in Geelong’s backline, but he might get the call-up now with a spot opening up on the biggest stage of all.<br />
He’s been named as an emergency for both finals so far, so it wouldn’t be a huge gamble.</p>
<p>The real gamble is happening up north — because Brisbane looks set to roll the dice with skipper Lachie Neale.</p>
<p>After tearing his calf in the Qualifying Final and being ruled out for the rest of the season, the very next day, the dual Brownlow Medallist is reportedly making a remarkable recovery and appears set to lead his team out on Grand Final day.</p>
<p>Risky? Crazy? Bonkers? Yeah, it’s all of the above.</p>
<p>But if you’re the Lions, you’d rather a limited Lachie Neale out there — even at 70% — than someone with no form and limited senior exposure.</p>
<p>What role he plays will be fascinating. If named in the 23, will he start? Or will they hold him back as the sub on limited minutes?</p>
<p>The man most likely to make way might be Jarrod Berry, who’s also in a race against time after being subbed out of the prelim with a recurring shoulder issue.</p>
<p>He’s pushing to play — but it might be taken out of his hands. Especially after last week’s sub, Bruce Reville, came on and made a real impact.</p>
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<h2>Players To Watch</h2>
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<h3>Lachie Neale</h3>
<p>22 days after ripping his calf in the Qualifying Final, Lachie Neale is set to make a remarkable recovery and lead his team out to play in the Grand Final!</p>
<p>What state will his calf be in? What impact will he have, and/ will he be restricted to? A Dual Brownlow Medallist at 50/60% is better than some other options that the Lions could throw the Cats’ way, but even this could be seen as too big a risk by Chris Fagan and the match committee? </p>
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<h3>Oisin Mullin</h3>
<p>The Irishman’s breakout season has come about by him taking on the role as the Cats’ number one stopper. Often tasked with taking the opposition's most dangerous midfielder or impact player, who he stands next to at the opening bounce will tell us a lot about Chris Scott’s plans and where this game will be won and lost. </p>
<p>He did the job amazingly on Hugh McCluggage in the first final, and McCluggage has gone on to dominate the two finals since. Is it as simple as rinsing and repeating the dose to limit his impact?</p>
<p>It’s a big chess piece for Chris Scott to play. </p>
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<h3>Patrick Dangerfield</h3>
<p>In the catalogue of best games that Patrick Dangerfield has ever played, Last Friday’s performance will sit comfortably among the very top handful. </p>
<p>What might he do on Saturday with the prize of the premiership cup to take home? Be honest, even as a neutral, you’re excited to see him play and try to rip the game apart again. </p>
<p>If he starts in the midfield, he could throw off some real big plans the Lions have set for him. Then again, wherever he is, he needs constant attention. </p>
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<h2>Geelong vs Brisbane & Betting Tips</h2>
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<h3>Who Will Win? </h3>
<p>The reigning premiers have history on their side. Four of the five teams this century that lost a Qualifying Final and then faced the same opponent in the Grand Final have gone on to win when it mattered most.</p>
<p>But this Geelong side — the same side that dismantled them just 22 days ago — could not be better placed to add an 11th premiership to the growing cabinet down at Kardinia Park.</p>
<p>The Lions will rely heavily on their contested ball dominance and their signature control-tempo game. They were perfect in the home-and-away season when it came to the contest, winning all 12 games in which they won the contested possession count. But in the Qualifying Final, the Cats beat them in that very area.</p>
<p>Brisbane’s control-tempo style is well known across the competition. When they notch 100+ uncontested marks, they win. Since the start of 2024, they’ve only lost three games when hitting triple digits in that stat.</p>
<p>Geelong’s forward line and mid-to-forward connection is absolutely humming.</p>
<p>No team gets the ball inside 50 more than the Cats — and no side delivers higher quality entries. They’ve cracked 100+ points in each of their past eight games, and when they last met the Lions, they had 13 different goalkickers — the equal-most ever recorded in a final, according to Champion Data.</p>
<p>The Lions are a brilliant side, and to reach a third straight Grand Final — after a nightmare draw, injury setbacks, and the grind of the season — is a huge achievement.</p>
<p>But Geelong have hardly put a foot wrong all year. This one has all the makings of a classic, but we’re tipping the Cats to get it done… in a cliffhanger.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9638368">Cats</a></p>
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<h3>First Goal Prediction</h3>
<p>With speculation rife about his playing future, Callum ah Chee will be looking to strike again at the place and stage he punched his name into Lions folklore. </p>
<p>If it is indeed his last game in the Maroon, Blue and Gold, he'll want to leave with a bang.</p>
<p>As one of the many dynamic forwards in the Lions' front half, they need to be the ones to throw the first punch. </p>
<p>We think Ah Chee is the one to do that for the Lions. </p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9638368">Callum Ah Chee</a></p>
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<h3>Most Disposals Prediction</h3>
<p>His last game against the Cats, and a 1v1 matchup, was the only blip on the radar in the recent form line of Hugh McCluggage. </p>
<p>Since he was restricted to just 14 touches in the QF, he’s collected 70 since and driven the Lions to victory in both finals. </p>
<p>We’re backing Hugh to win the battle here. He’ll need to go big again to cover the load in the Lions midfield with a calf-strung Lachie Neale. </p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9638368">Hugh McCluggage 30+ disposals </a></p>
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<h2>Norm Smith Medal Prediction</h2>
<p>You can read our article on <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/afl/predictions/norm-smith-medal-preview-and-prediction-2025">Who Will Win the Norm Smith Medal</a> on the Huddle for the full guide as to who has a chance to win the Norm Smith Medal. But we’re going to make our prediction here.</p>
<p>The Cats runners do the work to get them forward, and Max Holmes looks like he's itching to get out there on Grand Final Day and excel, finally. </p>
<p>We’re backing him for the big one and to take Norm home. </p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-norm-smith-medal/afl-norm-smith-medal-9393840">Max Holmes</a></p>
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<h2>Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Match Details</h2>
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<p><strong>Date:</strong> Saturday, September 27th, 2025</p>
<p><strong>First Bounce:</strong> 2:30 PM, AEST</p>
<p><strong>Location:</strong> MCG, Melbourne</p>
<p><strong>How to watch:</strong> Channel 7, 7plus</p>
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