Round 17 of the AFL season brings a fixture that could hardly land at a better time for St Kilda, with the Saints coming off their bye to face an Essendon side utterly devoid of confidence.

St Kilda enters this one still searching for rhythm, having dropped four of their past five matches heading into the break, most recently going down 83-61 to the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.

The good news for Ross Lyon's side is the timing of the draw, given Essendon has now lost nineteen straight matches in Victoria after slumping to yet another defeat, 79-65 at the hands of North Melbourne.

The Bombers were outplayed for large stretches of that contest despite the respectable final margin, leaving more questions than answers over what the club's future holds under Dean Solomon.

With St Kilda fresh off a break and Essendon mired in one of the worst home records in the competition’s history, this shapes as a genuine opportunity for the Saints to bank four points and take some confidence into their run for the finals.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Round 17 prediction and preview below.

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

Essendon really needs a win under Dean Solomon to give those backing him in the senior coaching search any real ground to stand on.

The problem is the Bombers have won just one of their past twenty-seven matches, and they've barely looked like troubling the good sides all season. This feels no different.

St Kilda, by contrast, has been solid, having beaten almost every team currently sitting around it on the ladder, and that record makes the Saints hard for Essendon to handle here.

The younger core coming through at St Kilda, headlined by Max Hall, Marcus Windhager, Hugo Garcia and hopefully a returning Mitchito Owens, is enough to get Saints fans genuinely excited.

The back end of the season matters plenty for the foundations of what's hopefully still to come for Essendon, but that’s unlikely to result in a win for them this weekend.

Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 34 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Nate Caddy is another forward who’s developed into a genuine gun in recent years. Fun fact, he’s kicked a goal in 18 consecutive games, the fourth longest active goal streak in the competition.

At any other club he’d be a gamebreaker, but for Essendon the results  just haven’t been coming.

With the Bombers desperate for early momentum to lift the mood at Marvel, expect the ball to find Caddy early in the opening exchanges.

Betting tip: Nate Caddy.

Most Disposals Prediction

Zach Merrett remains the heartbeat of this Essendon side regardless of the result on the scoreboard, and he continues to rack up the footy at an elite clip even as the losses pile up around him.

With St Kilda's midfield likely to dominate general play, Merrett figures to see plenty of the ball as Essendon's primary outlet through the middle.

The Lions may have called him “selfish” earlier this year, but he does pass the ball plenty.

Betting tip: Zach Merrett.

Odds are subject to change. *

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Predicted Teams

Essendon Bombers Predicted Team List

FB: Andrew McGrath, Zach Reid, Jaxon Prior

HB: Xavier Duursma, Jacob Farrow, Mason Redman

C: Hussien El Achkar, Sam Durham, Archer Day-Wicks

HF: Dyson Sharp, Nate Caddy, Jye Caldwell

FF: Sullivan Robey, Ben McKay, Harrison Jones

FOLL: Nick Bryan, Zach Merrett, Will Setterfield

I/C: Jordan Ridley, Lachie Blakiston, Darcy Parish, Archie Perkins, Isaac Kako

St Kilda Saints Predicted Team List

FB: Jack Silvagni, Callum Wilkie, Anthony Caminiti

HB: Jack Sinclair, Marcus Windhager, Ryan Byrnes

C: Darcy Wilson, Liam Stocker, Mason Wood

HF: Jack Higgins, Liam Ryan, Max Hall

FF: Campbell Lake, Cooper Sharman, Mitchito Owens

FOLL: Tom De Koning, Hugo Garcia, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

I/C: Jack Macrae, Bradley Hill, Dan Butler, Rowan Marshall, Angus Hastie

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Match Details

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026.

First Bounce: 3:15pm AEST

Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

How to Watch: Channel 7/Fox Footy/Kayo Sports