It’s a new year, with new possibilities for Essendon fans as the Bombers take on Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 1 of the AFL to begin their 2026 campaign.

It’s early days but the Essendon club is still undermanned after an injury riddled 2025 season, with several first-choice players sidelined for at least the start of the season. 

Essendon are expected to be movers in 2026, after a disappointing 15th place finish last year. 

This Round 1 clash is the perfect opportunity for the young squad including highly touted 2026 draftees Sharp, Kondogiannis and El Achkar to put their hand up and earn a permanent position in their club’s best lineup. 

All pressure will be on Hawthorn, who had an underwhelming Opening Round match, where they were outclassed by GWS in the midfield. Tipped for a top eight finish this year, Hawthorn will need to improve their performance to get past a hungry young Essendon side.

With their midfield depth exposed in the season opener, midfielders Massimo D'Ambrosio and Josh Ward will be excited for the return of Cam Mackenzie who is a good chance to return from concussion this week.

Hawthorn’s attempts to bolster their on-ball brigade with former Dons skipper Zach Merrett during last year's trade period fell short, but the more pressing concern for the Hawks will be their failure to match the undermanned Giants' midfield last week.On paper, this match is Hawthorn’s to lose, but something tells us that this young Dons outfit will be ready to take this contest all the way to the fourth quarter.  

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Essendon vs Hawthorn prediction and preview below.

Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

In this matchup, another Opening Round side meets a club making its maiden 2026 appearance. Understandably, that record is well in favour of those with a game under their belt.

Even without this as a consideration, the Hawks clearly look the superior outfit, but Hawthorn’s great strength as a squad may be a weakness in disguise. 

Flexibility with roles is always a positive for teams, when a player is struggling you can move the magnet and help them get into the game.

Or if a player goes down, there are multiple puzzle pieces that can be shifted to suit the team’s needs. Macdonald, Moore, Ginnivan, Watson, Ward, Butler and Weddle are all versatile.They can play across a variety of positions and all of those names are topline AFL players in their own right. But who is the man to call upon in the third quarter when the “you know what” is hitting the fan?

Yes, it’s only a pre-season game, but against the Bulldogs, Weddle played ruck, tagged Bontempelli, played on ball, forward, back and wing. Is that a recipe for his on-going success? We’re not sold.

Essendon needs to show us a more attacking game style and get the ball forward with urgency. It’s no secret they had an injury plagued 25’ campaign, but the methodical, often-sideways ball movement was a tough watch for Bombers fans.

After a dream-run to the Prelim finals last season, Hawthorn dished up a disappointing display last week in Sydney. They desperately need to solve their on-ball woes and they’d love to see a turn in form for big Mitch Lewis up front.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawks by 28 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Pressure will be on Mitch Lewis after an underwhelming Opening Round performance, we all know what he can do with clean ball inside or outside 50.

After a focus on building match fitness, he’ll be better for the run and itching for early involvements. Expect the Hawks to use his marking presence to kick start their game. 

Betting tip: Mitch Lewis.

Most Disposals Prediction

In recent years, Jai Newcombe has emerged as the clear barometer for Hawthorn’s success. After another year topping the club’s Brownlow votes, he’s proved himself as one of the top class midfielders in the AFL.

If Hawthorn are to win this one, the Hawks co-captain will have his fingerprints all over the match and the footy.

Betting tip: Jai Newcombe.

Odds are subject to change.*

Essendon vs Hawthorn Predicted Teams

Essendon Predicted Team List

B: Mason Redman, Ben McKay, Jayden Nguyen

HB: Zak Johnson, Zach Reid, Andrew McGrath

C: Xavier Duursma, Darcy Parish, Brayden Fiorini

HF: Jye Caldwell, Nate Caddy, Kyle Langford

F: Hussien El Achkar, Peter Wright, Isaac Kako

R: Lachie Blakiston, Sam Durham, Zach Merrett

I/C: Archie Roberts, Jacob Farrow, Jaxon Prior, Dyson Sharp, Matt Guelfi

Hawthorn Predicted Team List

B: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barrass, Josh Battle

HB: Karl Amon, James Sicily, Jarman Impey

C: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Josh Ward, Harry Morrison

HF: Dylan Moore, Mitch Lewis, Jack Ginnivan

F: Nick Watson, Mabior Chol, Jack Gunston

R: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Connor Macdonald

I/C: Harry Husthwaite, Jack Scrimshaw, Finn Maginness, Sam Butler, Cam Mackenzie

Essendon vs Hawthorn Match Details

Date: Friday, March 13, 2026 

First bounce: 7:40pm AEDT 

Location: MCG, Melbourne 

How to watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports