AFL Round One, 2026 starts with a bang as the Richmond Tigers take on old foes Carlton at the MCG. 

Carlton will enter Round One, already under pressure after a second half capitulation against the Swans in the Opening Round. 

Thursday night’s clash will be this group of young Tigers’ first opportunity to prove themselves. Richmond will come into this one as the fresher side, after an Opening Round bye last week.

Richmond will be full of enthusiasm and relishing their position as underdogs after a big offseason under coach Adam Yze. While Carlton will have spent the week licking their wounds and trying to figure out where it all went wrong in last week’s season opener.

Will we see another famous Richmond ambush at the MCG? Or will the Blues have learned enough from last week's performance to take the four points?

Let’s find out which battles are important and which players to watch in this Round One clash between the Blues and Tigers at the MCG. 

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers prediction and preview below. 

Carlton vs Richmond prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

It’s always a massive game between these two old clubs. Tribal warfare with unbridled enthusiasm arrives en masse at The MCG, on a Thursday night no less. 

Problem is, only the Tiger Army will arrive with that enthusiasm, as Carlton’s evaporated in half an hour of madness at The SCG last week.

Now, this one could become excruciating for Blues followers. Lose this and the joint explodes, again. It feels way too early to be saying it, but it already feels like a must win for Carlton. 

To win the game, the Blues will need to keep the tempo under wraps. As soon as the game speeds up, either via speed of ball or fatigue in the players’ legs, the Blues get exposed.

If the Tigers can keep the energy up across a four-quarter performance, they should be too much for the Blues - who showed last week that they’ll fall away under pressure. 

Head-to-head prediction: Tigers by 13 points. 

First Goal Prediction

With the forward line looking to make a statement early, Harry McKay is the man to watch if the Blues are to start well. 

He’s got the physical presence that can set the tone for Carlton in front of a massive crowd. Expect the Blues to look for him as their primary target inside 50 to get the scoreboard ticking over quickly.

Betting tip: Harry McKay.

Most Disposals Prediction

Sam Walsh was a shining light for Carlton in a poor performance overall against the Swans.

He finished the Opening Round with over 30 disposals, despite being in a badly beaten side. 

This early-season form indicates he’ll be thereabouts again, particularly in a match that we expect will be a much closer contest. 

Betting tip: Sam Walsh.

Odds are subject to change.*

Carlton vs Richmond Predicted Teams

Carlton Blues Predicted Team List

B: Ollie Florent, Jacob Weitering, Lewis Young

HB: Harry Dean, Mitch McGovern, Zac Williams

C: Ollie Hollands, Patrick Cripps, Will Hayward

HF: Lachie Fogarty, Harry McKay, Ben Ainsworth

F: Jesse Motlop, Brodie Kemp, Ashton Moir

R: Marc Pittonet, George Hewett, Sam Walsh

I/C: Nick Haynes, Liam Reidy, Elijah Hollands, Campbell Chesser, Cooper Lord

Richmond Tigers Predicted Team List

B: Joshua Gibcus, Ben Miller, Nathan Broad

HB: Jayden Short, Sam Grlj, Jaden Trezise

C: Kane McAuliffe, Sam Lalor, Tyler Sonsie

HF: Steely Green, Maurice Rioli Junior, Seth Campbell

F: Harry Armstrong, Tom Lynch, Rhyan Mansell

R: Toby Nankervis, Tim Taranto, Jack Ross

I/C: Tom Brown, Hugo Ralphsmith, Jacob Hopper, Sam Cumming, Campbell Gray

Match Details

Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026 First bounce: 7:30pm AEDT Location: MCG, Melbourne How to watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports