It’s now or never at the Gabba and both clubs have everything to lose.

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday night, with the winner booking a prelim final vs Hawthorn at the MCG.

The Lions walked into their qualifying final against Sydney as the biggest favourite of the weekend and walked out beaten 141-88.

It was as comprehensive as the scoreline suggests. The one crumb of comfort is a familiar one: Brisbane lost their qualifying final in 2025 as well, then took the scenic route all the way to the flag.

Adelaide, meanwhile, are still breathing thanks to a 90-68 elimination final win over the Western Bulldogs last Saturday. Izak Rankine was enormous again, with 34 disposals and two goals, while Josh Worrell racked up 34 touches of his own and set an AFL finals record with 19 intercepts from defence.

The win also took some heat out of the week for Matthew Nicks, whose position had been the subject of speculation had the Crows bowed out.

These two don’t cross paths in September very often. The last time was the 2003 Semi-Final, which Brisbane won 124-82.

More recently the Lions handled the Crows 127-75 at the Gabba back in Round 7, but on the back of Izak Rankine and Jordan Dawson, the Crows have taken it up multiple levels since then.

One side gets a preliminary final and keeps the dream alive. The other gets an early season review.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Semi Final prediction and preview below.

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

The Lions failed to roar into Sydney, ambushed by a hungry and driven Swans outfit.

From here it is knockout footy for Brisbane, a side chasing a third straight flag and they will all need to play a good deal better to have any shot at it.

The midfield group was smashed, particularly from centre bounce and the tall defenders in Andrews, Lester and Gardiner had about as poor a night as we have seen from them in five years.

The Crows will be keen to improve as well, despite getting the job done. They did enough to see off the Western Bulldogs, but we are not convinced that performance beats anyone else left in the draw.

Importantly, Fogarty and Thilthorpe came to life at different stages, with the latter kicking a key goal in the last term.

You can be assured Josh Dunkley will be handed Jordan Dawson and that Conor McKenna will aim to take Wayne Milera out of the game.

Brisbane did not put a hard tag on anyone against the Swans and we would be stunned if Chris Fagan did not change that mindset with a few defensive roles this week. The best of Brisbane beats anyone and we reckon we get something near their best here.

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by 23 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Charlie Cameron at the Gabba is a hard thing to talk yourself out of.

He was kept goalless by the Swans last week and players of his ilk do not tend to accept two quiet finals in a row. Expect him to be desperate to get involved early in the contest.

We’ve seen it time and time again, King Charles kicking majors at the Gabba. If the Lions come out with the intensity that this match requires, Cameron will show up in the right place at the right time and do the rest.

Betting tip: Charlie Cameron to score the first goal.

Most Disposals Prediction

It was a massive down week for the Brisbane midfield, with Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale’s performances being found wanting.

They managed just 21 and 18 disposals respectively. They will need a far better showing for the Lions to be competitive here.

Their Adelaide counterparts have been dominant in recent weeks, Izak Rankine in particular, with 36, 39, 35 and 34 in his past four starts.

We reckon the Lions bring genuine pressure now that it is do or die, which gives Ashcroft more space to get involved and drags Rankine's numbers back down as Adelaide sees less of the footy.

If Brisbane wins this one, Ashcroft is our man for the touches.

Betting tip: Will Ashcroft for most disposals.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Wayne Milera under 23 disposals, over the total match points line of 179.5, Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39, and Logan Morris 3+ goals.

Odds are subject to change.*

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Predicted Teams

Brisbane Lions Predicted Team List

FB: Noah Answerth, Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester

HB: Dayne Zorko, Darcy Gardiner, Darcy Wilmot

C: Jaspa Fletcher, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry

HF: Cameron Rayner, Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron

FF: Kai Lohmann, Oscar Allen, Eric Hipwood

FOLL: Sam Draper, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft

I/C: Zac Bailey, Hugh McCluggage, Levi Ashcroft, Conor McKenna, Darcy Fort

Adelaide Crows Predicted Team List

FB: Josh Worrell, James Borlase, Max Michalanney

HB: Wayne Milera, Mark Keane, Rory Laird

C: Brayden Cook, Jordan Dawson, Dan Curtin

HF: Ben Keays, Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele

FF: Darcy Fogarty, Taylor Walker, Callum Ah Chee

FOLL: Lachlan McAndrew, Izak Rankine, Jake Soligo

I/C: Alex Neal-Bullen, Isaac Cumming, Sam Berry, Luke Nankervis, Hugo Hall-Kahan

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Match Details

Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026.

First Bounce: 7:35pm AEST

Location: The Gabba, Brisbane

How to Watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports