AFLW Tips and Predictions - Finals Week 1 2026

It's finals time in the AFLW!

Twelve rounds are done, the top eight are locked in and the race for the double chance went right down to the final weekend.

North Melbourne finished on top again, becoming the first club in AFLW history to claim three straight minor premierships. North did it in style, too; racking up a 101-33 win over Richmond.

Geelong matched the Roos at 11-1 for the season and only missed top spot on percentage. The Cats haven't lost since Round 1.

Carlton held on to fourth by the barest of margins. Their percentage of 133.2 finished just ahead of Gold Coast's 133.0, so the Suns have to go the long way despite a strong run home.

The question remains, can anyone stop North? Are the Cats the real deal? And who survives the elimination finals?

Week 1 starts with a Saturday double-header at Ikon Park before the elimination finals head to Sydney and the Gold Coast on Sunday.

For the latest team news and analysis, check out our AFLW Finals Week 1 tips and predictions below.

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons Prediction

Saturday, November 7, 1:05pm AEDT – Ikon Park, Melbourne

The Cats have earned a home qualifying final, but they won't be playing it at home. With GMHBA Stadium unavailable, the game shifts to Ikon Park.

Not that much has slowed Geelong down this year. They've won 11 straight and piled on 871 points for the home-and-away season, the most of any team in the competition.

They also sent a message last Friday night, smashing the Western Bulldogs 88-20. Jackie Parry kicked five goals on her return from concussion to move to 26 for the season, equal second in the league.

There's a twist here, too. Cats coach Mick Stinear managed the Melbourne women until last season and this will be his first crack at his old team.

Stinear should know the weaknesses in this Dees line-up and is perfectly placed to exploit them as this is the first time these two clubs have faced off in 2026.

Melbourne have conceded the second-fewest points in the competition, it’s attack vs defence in what we’re expecting to be an instant classic.

The winner of this one will likely face North Melbourne in the Grand Final; we’re thinking the Cats have the class to get the win here.  

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 9 points.

Betting tip: Georgie Prespakis 25+ disposals.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Carlton Blues Prediction

Saturday, November 7, 4:05pm AEDT – Ikon Park, Melbourne

Three minor premierships in a row. The Roos are the benchmark again.

North finished 11-1 with a percentage of 246.6, and the only side to beat them all year was Hawthorn, by seven points in Cairns back in Round 6.

They fired a warning shot across the competition in the last round of the regular season, scoring over 100 points against Richmond. Ash Riddell, Jasmine Garner and Tahlia Randall starred, as they have all season.

Carlton snuck into the top four in a less emphatic fashion, grinding out a 40-35 win over Brisbane.

But it came at a cost. Claudia Whitfort hurt her hamstring early in that game and has been ruled out of this one, while ruck Jess Good is managing a foot issue.

If you had to pick the worst week to lose a key midfielder, it'd be the week you run into North's engine room.

The Blues will have a crack, but the Roos should win and win well.

Head-to-head prediction: North Melbourne Kangaroos by 30 points.

Betting tip: Ash Riddell 30+ disposals.

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Sunday, November 8, 1:05pm AEDT – Henson Park, Sydney

Sydney arrive in good form after three straight wins, the last of them a one-point thriller over Fremantle in Perth.

Chloe Molloy was the difference. She kicked four goals, took a match-saving mark in defence in the final seconds and finished the season as the competition's leading goalkicker with a record 28.

The Swans have a hole to fill, though. Ruck Caitlin Reid was stretchered off with a jaw injury in that game, and scans have confirmed a fracture.

The Dogs are heading the other way. After winning five straight through the middle of the season, they’ve limped into the finals, dropping their last two. They managed just three goals in a 68-point loss to Geelong last Friday night.

Can they flip the switch on the road in an elimination final? We're not convinced.

Home ground and form both point to the Swans.

Head-to-head prediction: Sydney Swans by 12 points.

Betting tip: Chloe Molloy 2+ goals.

Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction

Sunday, November 8, 3:05pm AEDT – People First Stadium, Gold Coast

Talk about a cruel finish. Gold Coast beat GWS 62-53 in the final round, but it wasn't enough to jump Carlton and they missed the top four by 0.2 percentage points.

Charlie Rowbottom proved again why she’s a frontrunner for the AFLW 2026 Best & Fairest, with 33 disposals, two goals and 12 clearances. She'll be the one to watch in this Elimination Final at the Gold Coast.

Hawthorn are about the most dangerous eighth-placed side you could draw. They're the only team to beat North Melbourne this season and they come into finals in some fine form.

Áine McDonagh is the key up forward. The Hawks’ tall finished second on the regular-season goal tally, 26 majors in 2026.

We like the Suns at home, they are the dark horse in this competition.

Head-to-head prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 11 points.

Betting tip: Charlie Rowbottom 30+ disposals.

*Odds are subject to change.