AFLW Tips and Predictions - Semi Finals 2026

And then there were six.

Week 1 of the AFLW finals served up a boilover, a blowout and a slice of history.

Melbourne came from 22 points down at half-time to stun Geelong by four points, while North Melbourne thumped Carlton by 36 to keep their three-peat bid humming. Both now get a week off with a preliminary final waiting.

On Sunday, Sydney handled the wind and rain at Henson Park to end the Western Bulldogs' season. Up on the Gold Coast, Hawthorn finally broke their finals duck with an 18-point upset over a red-hot Suns outfit.

That leaves a Saturday double-header with no second-chances. Win and you're into a prelim. Lose and it’s time for mad Monday.

Can the Cats bounce back at home? And can the Hawks keep the history coming?

For the latest team news, analysis and AFLW Semi Finals odds, check out our AFLW Semi Finals tips and predictions below.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans Prediction

Saturday, November 14, 4:05pm AEDT – GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Geelong will be kicking themselves after that qualifying final.

The Cats led by 22 points at the main break, but Melbourne kicked the only three goals of the last quarter to steal it 56 to 52.

Georgie Prespakis did all she could, racking up 34 disposals. Jackie Parry and Aishling Moloney kicked two goals each.

The good news for the Cats? After playing their qualifying final at Ikon Park, they're back at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong went 11-1 in the home-and-away season and piled on 871 points, the most of any side.

Sydney arrive full of confidence after mastering wild conditions at Henson Park to beat the Dogs 46 to 2.5 17. Chloe Molloy, who kicked an AFLW-record 28 goals this season, even pulled off a cameo down back and still found time to kick one.

Tanya Kennedy laid a whopping 17 tackles in that win. Good luck getting a clean possession near her.

These two haven't met this season. The last time they did, in Round 3 of 2025, the Swans snuck home by five points in Geelong.

Sydney won't be scared, but the Cats at home with a point to prove is a different beast. We're backing Geelong to bounce back.

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 15 points.

Betting tip: Georgie Prespakis 25+ disposals.

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction

Saturday, November 14, 7:15pm AEDT – IKON Park, Melbourne

The hoodoo is over.

After bowing out in straight sets in both 2024 and 2025, Hawthorn beat Gold Coast 57 - 39 at People First Stadium for the club's first AFLW finals win.

Eliza West was everywhere with 29 disposals and a goal and Laura Stone kicked two.

Carlton, meanwhile, ran into a North Melbourne side at full speed. The Blues managed a woeful 13 points in their drubbing at the hands of the Roos. 

They were also without Claudia Whitfort, who hurt her hamstring against Brisbane in the final round. Keep an eye on the team sheet.

History is on Carlton's side. The Blues beat the Hawks 36 - 24 at IKON Park in Round 8 and it was Carlton who ended Hawthorn's season with a 46-point semi-final win last year.

But form is a funny thing in finals. One side is coming off a one-goal performance, the other is riding the biggest win in its AFLW history.

This one could go either way, but we're leaning towards the Hawks to keep the party going.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 6 points.

Betting tip: Eliza West 25+ disposals.

Odds are subject to change.*