HE'S LUCID (6) won fresh up and then tried hard here on Saturday when finishing third as a warm favourite at BM75 level. He drops in weight with the step up to open-company, but this is hardly a vintage field, and we think he is the one to beat, so follow your money. BELZONI (8) only missed by a nose when finishing second in the same race as the top pick here 7-days ago, and with 2.5kg less to carry, he can figure in the top 3 again. WIRE ROPE (4) beat most of these on the first day of this Carnival, and he has no problem at all when the tracks are at their heaviest, so stick with him. EXPRESS COUP (1) missed the first day, and was last seen finishing fifth at Oamaru nearly 3 weeks ago. She has to give weight to all her rivals, which makes it tough, but she is a must for all top 4 combos. LORD DARCI (2) never featured in the Winter Cup last Saturday, but this a whole different ball game for him. A form reversal is on the cards.