UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan Prediction and Betting Odds

Headlining UFC Fight Night this week is Aussie Tom Nolan, who will take on Renato Moicano inside the Octagon.

The pair will meet in Las Vegas on Sunday, November 1, with the card scheduled to begin from 06:00 AEDT.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Moicano to win

Value bet: Moicano by submission

Long shot: Moicano by KO/TKO

Tale of the Tape

Moicano is going to want to close space and turn this fight into a grappling contest. Nolan, meanwhile, will search for room to use his southpaw striking.

Moicano’s clearest route is to push Nolan towards the fence, establish a body lock and work towards top position or the back.

His submission threat, particularly the rear-naked choke, makes those exchanges much more dangerous than simply conceding a takedown and getting back up.

Nolan’s best route is to keep the fight upright, establish his straight left and move away before Moicano can turn a striking exchange into a clinch. He needs to make Moicano pay as he steps forward, because of the Orthodox-vs-Southpaw clash.

How do the two compare? Moicano’s figures are first…

• Age - 37 vs 26
• Height - 5'11" (181cm) vs 6'2" (188cm)
• Stance - Orthodox vs Southpaw
• Record - 21-7-1 vs 11-1-0
• KO Record - 2 vs 5

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

Moicano's last five fights:

• Chris Duncan - Win (Sub, 2) - Apr 2026
• Beneil Dariush - Loss (UD, 3) - Jun 2025
• Islam Makhachev - Loss (Sub, 1) - Jan 2025
• Benoit Saint Denis - Win (TKO, 2) - Sep 2024
• Jalin Turner - Win (TKO, 2) - Apr 2024

Nolan’s last five fights:

• Fares Ziam - Win (UD, 3) - Jun 2026
• Charlie Campbell - Win (Sub, 1) - Sep 2025
• Viacheslav Borshchev - Win (UD, 3) - Feb 2025
• Alex Reyes - Win (UD, 3) - Aug 2024
• Victor Martinez - Win (TKO, 1) - May 2024

Betting Markets to Watch

The betting markets have Nolan as the slight favourite, although there isn’t much between the pair of them.

The difference is likely due to the form both men have shown over their last five, with Moicano having experienced two losses, while Nolan is unbeaten in his last five.

Alternative value could be in the method of victory market if you’re deciding to back a winner. Moicano by submission could have value, as his back-taking gives him a proven finishing route.

Nolan isn’t necessarily weak against submissions, but Moicano has 11 career submission wins, including UFC rear-naked chokes against Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert and, most recently, Chris Duncan.

For additional value, and a potential long shot, Moicano to win in Round 2 could have value in the odds.

Nolan’s movement could make the opening exchanges difficult, but Moicano could gradually close the distance and create longer grappling exchanges as the fight goes on.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Moicano vs Nolan betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Moicano is the likely winner, with a submission victory offering value.

An alternative long shot is Moicano by KO/TKO. He stopped Jalin Turner with ground strikes and beat Benoît Saint Denis by a doctor’s stoppage following substantial damage on the ground. He only has two KO victories, but it’s a plausible outcome.

There is plenty more action on the calendar beyond this one, so it is worth lining up more UFC fight predictions before you settle on your bets.