Making his return to the UFC octagon, Conor McGregor will have his first fight since 2021 when he takes on Max Holloway in a rematch of their 2013 encounter.

McGregor won by decision on that occasion and will be looking to secure a similar result when they square off in Las Vegas at UFC 329 on Sunday, July 12, from 07:00 AEST.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Holloway to win

Value bet: Holloway to win by KO/TKO

Long shot: McGregor to win

Tale of the Tape

It’ll be an interesting battle, as McGregor returns after a five-year lay-off, while Holloway has continued to compete at the top of the lightweight division. McGregor will also enter the bout having undergone surgery to repair his leg, while Holloway is stepping up in weight.

How do the two compare? McGregor’s figures are first…

• Age - 37 vs 34
• Height - 5'9" (175cm) vs 5'11" (180cm)
• Stance - Southpaw vs Orthodox
• Record - 22-6-0 vs 27-9-0
• KO Record - 19 vs 12

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

McGregor's last five fights:

• Dustin Poirier - Loss (TKO, 1) - Jul 2021
• Dustin Poirier - Loss (TKO, 2) - Jan 2021
• Donald Cerrone - Win (TKO, 1) - Jan 2020
• Khabib Nurmagomedov - Loss (Sub, 4) - Oct 2018
• Eddie Alvarez - Won (TKO, 2) - Nov 2016

Holloway’s last five fights:

• Charles Oliveira - Loss (UD, 5) - Mar 2026
• Dustin Poirier - Win (UD, 5) - Jul 2025
• Ilia Topuria - Loss (TKO, 3) - Oct 2024
• Justin Gaethje - Win (TKO, 5) - Apr 2024
• Chan Sung Jung - Win (TKO, 3) - Aug 2023

Betting Markets to Watch

The early UFC fight odds suggest Holloway is the favourite, which is likely due to being active. However, there’s value in McGregor if you think he can score a big underdog victory in his comeback fight. He has won seven of his eight previous UFC fights against orthodox opponents and holds a decision win against Holloway (albeit 13 years ago).

Still, we think Holloway is the most likely to win. As noted, he has been active, and while he enters off a recent defeat to Oliveira, he’ll want to show everyone he still deserves a place in the main picture.

A KO/TKO victory has value , as each of McGregor's last seven UFC fights against orthodox opponents have failed to go the distance.

By extension, we think there’s value in the fight going into the third round , as each of Holloway’s last 19 UFC bouts has gone past round 2.

Our Prediction

Check the latest McGregor vs Holloway betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our UFC fight predictions have Holloway as the likely winner, with the TKO/KO market offering value.

Our long shot is the ‘Conor McGregor by KO/TKO - Method of Victory’ market. Conor McGregor has won six of his last seven UFC fights against orthodox opponents by KO/TKO, suggesting longer value in him to win by this method.