<p>For the fourth time in three months Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will play a title match.&nbsp;</p> <p>It has become a running joke among <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis">those who bet on tennis</a> that if Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz both enter a tournament, you can almost guarantee they'll be meeting in the final.</p> <p>Their contrasting styles and shared ambition are fuelling a rivalry that has taken centre stage in men’s tennis and, at 7am (AEST) on Monday, August 18, they will meet again for the Cincinnati crown and a potentially decisive swing in the world‑No 1 race at the Lindner Family Tennis Center.</p> <h2>Sinner’s path and momentum</h2> <p>Sinner enters as the defending champion and the form player <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/tennis/tennis-news/tennis-surfaces-clay--vs-grass--vs-hard-court-differences">on hard courts</a>. Returning to competition after lifting his fourth major at Wimbledon, the Italian has not dropped a set all week.</p> <p>He destroyed Félix Auger‑Aliassime 6‑0, 6‑2 to extend his hard‑court winning streak to 26 matches and followed up by celebrating his 24th birthday with a 7‑6(4), 6‑2 semi‑final win over qualifier Terence Atmane.</p> <p>That victory marked his 200th tour‑level hard‑court triumph and kept him perfect on serve; he has yet to face a break point in Cincinnati, as data from the ATP Tour show.</p> <p>If you are looking at the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis/atp-cincinnati/jannik-sinner-v-carlos-alcaraz-9527090">Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz odds</a> here at Sportsbet, do keep in mind that the Italian prodigy&nbsp; has not lost on his favourite surface since Alcaraz beat him in Beijing last October, and he boasts a finals record of 20 wins from 27 attempts, including 17‑5 on hard courts.</p> <h2>Alcaraz’s road and flashes of vulnerability</h2> <p>Alcaraz’s route has been more uneven. The Spaniard dropped sets to Damir Dzumhur and Andrey Rublev early in the week, and even in Saturday’s semi‑final against Alexander Zverev he mixed brilliance with lapses.</p> <p>He needed a late surge to claim the opening set and eventually won 6‑4, 6‑3, extending his streak of reaching finals to seven tournaments and pushing his Masters 1000 record to 38‑2 since April.</p> <p>Yet, three consecutive double faults donated a break back to Zverev, confirming what some have been saying for a while now: there may be some focus issues that occasionally creep into his game.</p> <h2>A rivalry shaping the sport</h2> <p>Alcaraz leads the series 8‑5, and 5‑2 on hard courts. Before Sinner’s four‑set win at Wimbledon last month, the Spaniard had beaten him five times in a row. That is an important detail to keep in mind because, whoever the ‘best player’ might be, Alcaraz seems to have an advantage over Sinner when the two face each other on the court.</p> <p>Sinner’s success at SW19 snapped that run and, together with his hard‑court streak, suggests the gap is closing.</p> <p>Beyond bragging rights, Monday’s result will influence who goes to New York as the provisional world No 1: an Alcaraz victory would see him overtake Sinner once last year’s US Open points drop, while a win for the Italian would extend his lead but still leave the race open.</p> <h2>Keys to victory</h2> <p>When the match begins at 8pm tonight, Sinner will rely on his precision. His flat, penetrating groundstrokes pin opponents behind the baseline and his serve - which yielded more than 90 per cent of points on first delivery against Atmane - provides free points and sets up quick forecourt forays.</p> <p>Alcaraz’s variety, however, is what poses the biggest threat.</p> <p>The Spaniard blends heavy topspin with sudden drop shots and loves to finish at the net. When he faced Sinner in Beijing last year he disrupted the Italian by attacking second serves early and keeping rallies short; replicating that strategy, along with a high first‑serve percentage, will be crucial.</p> <p>Heat and humidity expected in Cincinnati could also play a role, as Alcaraz may try to shorten points, while Sinner will trust his endurance.</p> <h2>Sinner vs. Alcaraz: Who Will Win the Cincinnati Final?</h2> <p>Statistics and surface history suggest Alcaraz should be a marginal favourite, but momentum is with Sinner.</p> <p>The Italian is riding a 26‑match hard‑court winning streak and his improved serve and discipline have allowed him to close out tight sets.</p> <p>Alcaraz’s ceiling remains higher (especially as his ability to produce breathtaking shot‑making in bursts can overwhelm anyone) yet he must reduce lapses like the double‑fault run against Zverev. The defending champion’s consistency may tilt the scales.</p> <p>Australian fans hoping to catch the action will need to set an early alarm: the final starts at 3 p.m. local time in Cincinnati, which is 7 a.m. AEST on Tuesday.</p> <p>For those willing to rise early, the reward should be a showcase of athleticism and shot‑making from two players who look set to define the decade.</p>