The clay-court season continues to move along, with the next Grand Slam just a month or so away, and this event could provide us with something very interesting to think about between April 22 and May 3 (local time).

Quick Picks

Our pick: Sinner to win

Value bet: Zverev as the winner

Long shot: Shelton to win

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Sinner has been made the heavy favourite to win this event, as he is the #1 player in world tennis.

However, perhaps more notably, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both won't be involved as they had to withdraw.

Alcaraz is a former two-time winner (2022 and 2023), while Djokovic is a three-time winner (2011, 2016, and 2019).

Last year's champion Casper Ruud is involved, as are Andrey Rublev (2024) and Alexander Zverev (2018 and 2021).

Still, despite not having won it yet, Sinner will be considered a big favourite.

Ruud defeated Jack Draper last year (who remains injured with a knee issue) 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 in the final, having beaten several quality opponents on his way.

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Is Sinner worth looking at?

Yes, although it's possible to argue that his odds are extremely short for a competition like this. Sinner is chasing a fifth consecutive Masters 1000 crown, and recently won the Monte Carlo Masters by defeating Alcaraz in straight sets.

As such, he is now 16-2 on clay over the last 12 months.

If you're new to the sport, understanding tennis surfaces explained can help you appreciate why clay-court form matters so much.

When looking for additional value, Shelton could offer it in the form of a long shot.

The American recently won the Munich Open by defeating Flavio Cobolli in straight sets, dropping just two sets on his way to the final.

Shelton is 9-4 on clay over the last 12 months, and has shown he can perform as an underdog.

Zverev may be a better pick for some based on his clay-court qualities.

The German was beaten in Munich in the semi-finals by Cobolli when he was a big favourite to win the tournament.

Understanding tennis playing styles explained can help punters assess how different players match up on this surface.

Our Prediction

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We think the most likely winner of this event will be Sinner.

While he'll still have to work hard and perform at his best, the Italian will have momentum after winning the Monte Carlo Masters.

If that weren't enough, with Alcaraz and Djokovic not there, he may feel he'll have the best chance he's ever had to win the ATP 1000 Madrid Open.

Our long shot is Shelton as he has the potential, with his odds perhaps not quite reflecting the quality he can bring, especially after his win in Munich.