<p>The clay-court season continues to move along, with the next Grand Slam just a month or so away, and this event could provide us with something very interesting to think about between April 22 and May 3 (local time).</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Quick Picks</h2><p><strong>Our pick:</strong> Sinner to win</p><p><strong>Value bet:</strong> Zverev as the winner</p><p><strong>Long shot:</strong> Shelton to win</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Preview</h2><p>Sinner has been made the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis/atp-madrid-open">heavy favourite to win this event</a>, as he is the #1 player in world tennis.</p><p>However, perhaps more notably, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both won't be involved as they had to withdraw.</p><p>Alcaraz is a former two-time winner (2022 and 2023), while Djokovic is a three-time winner (2011, 2016, and 2019).</p><p>Last year's champion Casper Ruud is involved, as are Andrey Rublev (2024) and Alexander Zverev (2018 and 2021).</p><p>Still, despite not having won it yet, Sinner will be considered a big favourite.</p><p>Ruud defeated Jack Draper last year (who remains injured with a knee issue) 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 in the final, having beaten several quality opponents on his way.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Markets to Watch</h2><p>Is Sinner worth looking at?</p><p>Yes, although it's possible to argue that his odds are extremely short for a competition like this. Sinner is chasing a fifth consecutive Masters 1000 crown, and recently won the Monte Carlo Masters by defeating Alcaraz in straight sets.</p><p>As such, he is now 16-2 on clay over the last 12 months.</p><p>If you're new to the sport, understanding <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/misc/other-news/tennis-surfaces-clay--vs-grass--vs-hard-court-differences">tennis surfaces explained</a> can help you appreciate why clay-court form matters so much.</p><p>When looking for additional value, Shelton could offer it in the form of a long shot.</p><p>The American recently won the Munich Open by defeating Flavio Cobolli in straight sets, dropping just two sets on his way to the final.</p><p>Shelton is 9-4 on clay over the last 12 months, and has shown he can perform as an underdog.</p><p>Zverev may be a better pick for some based on his clay-court qualities.</p><p>The German was beaten in Munich in the semi-finals by Cobolli when he was a big favourite to win the tournament.</p><p>Understanding <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/tennis/tennis-news/tennis-playing-styles-explained">tennis playing styles explained</a> can help punters assess how different players match up on this surface.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Our Prediction</h2><p>You can check out all of the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis">latest tennis betting odds</a> at Sportsbet! For those wanting to learn more about wagering on the sport, our guide on <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/punter-iq/guide/how-to-bet-on-tennis">how to bet on tennis</a> covers all the essentials.</p><p>We think the most <strong>likely winner of this event will be Sinner</strong>.</p><p>While he'll still have to work hard and perform at his best, the Italian will have momentum after winning the Monte Carlo Masters.</p><p>If that weren't enough, with Alcaraz and Djokovic not there, he may feel he'll have the best chance he's ever had to win the ATP 1000 Madrid Open.</p><p><strong>Our long shot is Shelton</strong> as he has the potential, with his odds perhaps not quite reflecting the quality he can bring, especially after his win in Munich.</p>