<p><em>Newcastle's defence has been leaking goals lately, as they've let in 11 across their last five matches in all competitions. Yet somehow they're travelling to Baku as overwhelming favourites against an Azerbaijani side that's been shipping them at an even worse rate.</em></p> <p>This historic Champions League knockout phase play-off pits two clubs making their first appearance at this stage. The gap in quality between these sides? Pretty obvious. Newcastle's attacking firepower should be enough to break down a Qarabağ defence that conceded six against Liverpool in their final league phase match.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Competition:</strong> UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase Play-off (1st Leg)</li> <li><strong>Venue: </strong>Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan</li> <li><strong>Date: </strong>Wednesday, February 18, 2026</li> <li><strong>Start Time: </strong>4:30 AM AEDT (Thursday)</li> </ul> <h2>Qarabağ vs Newcastle United Form and Head to Head</h2> <p>This marks the first competitive meeting between these clubs, so there's no historical data to lean on here.</p> <p>Newcastle finished 12th in the league phase, narrowly missing automatic qualification after drawing 1-1 with PSG. Qarabağ scraped through in 22nd position to become the first Azerbaijani club to reach the knockout rounds: a genuine achievement for them, even if it looks daunting from here.</p> <p>Recent form tells contrasting stories. Newcastle have won two of their last five matches across all competitions, with impressive victories over Tottenham away and Aston Villa in the FA Cup. But defeats to Liverpool and Brentford in the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/soccer/united-kingdom/english-premier-league">Premier League</a> exposed real defensive vulnerabilities, and there was that earlier Carabao Cup semi-final exit to Manchester City as well.</p> <p>Qarabağ's 6-0 hammering at Liverpool in their final Champions League league phase match raised serious questions about their ability to compete at this level.</p> <h2>Bruno's Absence Looms Large Over Newcastle</h2> <p>The biggest team news centres on Bruno Guimarães, with the Brazilian midfielder facing 6-10 weeks out with a hamstring injury. His creative influence and control from midfield will be sorely missed in Baku.</p> <p>Sven Botman remains carefully managed following back issues.</p> <p>Qarabağ enter this tie with fewer reported concerns but carry significant psychological scars from that Liverpool thrashing. Manager Gurban Gurbanov must somehow lift his players for another daunting assignment against Premier League opposition.</p> <h2>Qarabağ vs Newcastle United Betting Markets</h2> <p>Newcastle's dominance in the outright market reflects the significant gap between these sides. The match result appears straightforward on paper, though the Magpies' defensive wobbles this season have punters considering goal-related markets with interest.</p> <p>For the latest Qarabağ vs Newcastle United odds and markets, check out our dedicated odds page here at Sportsbet.</p> <p>The total goals market looks particularly appealing given both teams' recent defensive records. Newcastle's defence has been porous — conceding four at Liverpool, three to Brentford, and one apiece in other recent matches.</p> <p>Qarabağ, meanwhile, shipped 21 goals in 8 Champions League league phase matches this season. That Liverpool demolition will still be fresh in players' minds.</p> <p>Combining a Newcastle victory with goals could offer punters strong value.</p> <h2>Qarabağ vs Newcastle United Prediction: Our Pick</h2> <p><strong>Newcastle should have far too much quality for Qarabağ in this first leg, and we expect them to win in a match featuring at least three goals.</strong></p> <p>The Magpies boast superior squad depth, Premier League conditioning, and significantly more experience at this level (despite their own <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/punter-iq/guide/how-to-bet-uefa-champions-league">Champions League</a> inexperience, if that makes sense). Qarabağ's defensive record is genuinely concerning (21 goals conceded across 8 league phase matches) and that 6-0 drubbing at Anfield won't be easy to shake off.</p> <p>Sure, Bruno Guimarães' absence removes a key creative outlet. But Newcastle still possess enough attacking options to exploit Qarabağ's vulnerabilities.</p> <p>The risk here is a potential banana skin on an unfamiliar pitch against a side with nothing to lose. Qarabağ will be pumped up playing at home in their first-ever Champions League knockout tie.</p> <p>But (and this is important) the Azerbaijani champions lack the firepower to really capitalise on any Newcastle nerves.</p> <p>We think the visitors get the job done, probably by two or three goals.</p> <h2>Keep Reading</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/punter-iq/guide/premier-league-betting-guide">Everything you need to know before betting on the EPL</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/soccer/soccer-news/epl-betting-form-stats-analysis">The stats that actually matter when betting on Premier League matches</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/epl/predictions">Our latest Premier League tips and predictions</a></li> </ul>