Portugal and Wales will open their UEFA Nations League Group D campaign against each other, with Denmark and Norway also in the group. If you are new to competitions like this, our guide to betting on European competitions is a handy place to start.

The two nations will meet on Friday, September 25, at 04:45 AEST, with Jorge Jesus looking to start life as the new Portugal manager in the ideal way. But can his country wean themselves off still leaning on Cristiano Ronaldo?

Quick Picks

Our pick: Portugal to win

Value bet: BTTS to hit

Long shot: Cristiano Ronaldo to score the first goal

Betting Preview

Jesus has replaced Roberto Martinez as manager after a World Cup campaign that saw them crash out to neighbours (and eventual winners) Spain in the Round of 16 thanks to a late goal by Mikel Merino.

An experienced leader and a bit of a journeyman, Jesus has been brought in to inject a relentless, club-style urgency and intense tactical discipline into a squad which has underperformed recently.

He has decided to go with many of the same players that were in North America, with 41-year-old legend Cristiano Ronaldo managing to keep his place in the team.

The squad is very experienced, with just five players selected who haven’t reached double digits in appearances for the Selecao.

Craig Bellamy, meanwhile, will be aiming to build on Wales' unbeaten Nations League campaign in 2024/25, in which they won three and drew three to secure promotion. That included two 0-0 draws against Türkiye.

Having narrowly missed out on qualification for the winter’s biggest soccer tournament, Wales have drawn twice (against Northern Ireland and Ghana) and lost once (Romania) across three friendlies.

Several uncapped players have been called up, although Aaron Ramsey has since retired, while Harry Wilson and Karl Darlow are both unavailable through injury.

Betting Markets to Watch

Far from surprising, given the gulf in quality between the two nations, Portugal have been made huge favourites to win. Indeed, there’s very little value in the moneyline, or the win-draw-win market as it is also known, if you believe it will play out as expected.

These two nations have only played twice before, with Portugal winning both. They won 3-0 in 2000, and 2-0 in 2016 in the Euro 2016 semi-finals. Cristiano Ronaldo had a hand in both goals, scoring the first before turning provider. That’s why you may feel there’s better value in him to score or assist in this game.

Given their struggles at times despite their quality, the Under 2.5 Goals may have value. It has hit in three of their last five competitive fixtures, while Wales have shown they can be difficult to break down.

The last time they conceded more than two was in November 2025, during a 4-2 defeat to Belgium and they’ve played six games since.

The BTTS to hit has some value, albeit a long shot. While Portugal have kept four clean sheets in 2026 across nine games, Wales have scored at least one goal in each of their last seven. The last time they didn’t was against England (3-0 defeat) in October 2025.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Portugal vs Wales betting odds at Sportsbet.

A Portugal win is the most likely outcome in this match and is our top prediction.

For value, we think Cristiano Ronaldo to score the first goal has value. He’ll be aiming for a fast start as many have questioned his continued selection, and is four away from hitting 150 international goals.

Ronaldo already sits among those with the most goals in football history, so every strike now adds to a remarkable tally. Wales also haven’t scored in the first half of their last four matches, so Portugal to lead at half time may also offer value.