Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Odds

Newcastle and Aston Villa haven’t had the start to the season many had hoped for, with both going into this weekend’s clash in the bottom half of the 6 table after six games.

But, can either make it a magnificent seventh matchday? The two face each other at St James’ Park on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off 02:30am AEST.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Draw

Value bet: BTTS to score

Long shot: Harvey Barnes to score

Betting Preview

As mentioned, neither Newcastle nor Aston Villa have covered themselves in glory so far this season in the league.

Villa, admittedly, are slow starters. After a vaguely similar start to the 2025-26 season, Unai Emery’s side actually finished comfortably in fourth, five points ahead of Liverpool.

So maybe Villa fans will be feeling slightly less anxious than Newcastle. 

But there’s no getting past the fact they’ve only won once in the league this season and have one of the worst goal differences in the league so far at -5, putting them three points behind Newcastle.

Newcastle, meanwhile, missed the chance for a huge leap up the league in their last match. Getting battered 4-1 by Coventry left them down in 11th in the league, while a win would have taken them to fourth.

But it was the nature of the defeat last time out which will leave fans of the club worried. They were second best against promoted Coventry, and by some way.

So, things are going to have to improve for both clubs. Newcastle will have the longer rest, but then Villa will head into the clash confident after a 6-0 victory demolition job against Fenerbahce in the Champions League.

Betting Markets to Watch

The odds are pretty tight for this one, marginally favouring Newcastle to win, most likely as they have home advantage.

But there’s little value to be found in either team to come out with three points, which is what makes the match to be drawn more intriguing… particularly when you look at some facts.

Newcastle are winless against Villa in three games, drawing one and losing twice. In the corresponding fixture last year, Villa ran out 2-0 winners, but they haven’t lost back to back league games against Villa since the 2004-2005 season.

So, history would point towards a Newcastle win, or a draw, and remember, Newcastle’s confidence took a bit of a kicking against Coventry.

And while we favour the draw, goals could flow. Let’s talk about goals conceded. Villa have leaked 11, while Newcastle have let in 13 (the joint highest in the league with Bournemouth and, possibly surprisingly, Chelsea).

A 2-2 draw might be worth looking at, but correct score predictions are notoriously tough, which is why we think Both Teams To Score (BTTS) looks more likely. In the 12 matches these two have played so far this season, that would have hit eight times.

In terms of who might score those goals? Well, no one seems to enjoy playing Villa more than Harvey Barnes. In 13 games against Villa, the Newcastle midfielder has been involved in 10 goals (6 goals and 4 assists).

That’s some stat – and a Barnes thunderbolt wouldn’t be unexpected on Sunday.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Newcastle vs Aston Villa betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is a likely draw. Both sides will be desperate for the win, but neither side will want to leave St James’ winless.

With both sides capable of goals, and both defences shakier than a house of cards in a hurricane, the BTTS market could be worth investigating.

And if you want to back anyone to grab a goal, while Nicolas Jackson has four goals in three games for Villa, Harvey Barnes to score in front of home fans certainly has history on its side.