<p>The Catalans hold a three-match winning streak over Atletico, including a 5-4 aggregate triumph in last season's semi-final at this same stage.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Competition: </strong>Copa del Rey Semi-final (First Leg)</li> <li><strong>Venue:</strong> Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid</li> <li><strong>Date:</strong> Friday, February 13, 2026</li> <li><strong>Kick-off: </strong>7:00 AM AEDT</li> </ul> <h2>Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Form and Head to Head</h2> <p>Barcelona dominate the historical record with 113 wins to Atletico's 77 across 247 meetings, though recent encounters have been particularly one-sided. The reigning Copa del Rey champions have won their last three clashes, highlighted by a stunning 4-2 comeback victory at the Metropolitano when they trailed 2-0.</p> <p>Last season's semi-final saw Barcelona prevail 5-4 on aggregate, including a crucial 1-0 away win in Madrid.</p> <p>Atletico's form has been inconsistent, managing just two wins from their last five matches across all competitions. Their 5-0 demolition of Real Betis in the quarter-finals showed their ceiling, but consistency remains elusive. Barcelona, meanwhile, sit at the top of <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/soccer/spain/spanish-la-liga">La Liga</a> with 19 wins from 23 matches.</p> <h2>Barrios Absence Hands Barcelona Midfield Control</h2> <p>Atletico suffered a significant blow with confirmation that Pablo Barrios will miss the first leg through injury, leaving Diego Simeone short of midfield options. The young midfielder's four-week absence removes a key creative outlet just when the hosts need him most.</p> <p>Barcelona arrive with a question mark over Pedri's involvement, but their squad depth appears superior. Lamine Yamal continues his outstanding form with goals in consecutive matches, while Ronald Araujo's return from injury adds steel to the backline. Julian Alvarez is expected to feature for Atletico after recovering from illness, though Alexander Sorloth remains a doubt.</p> <h2>Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Betting Markets</h2> <p>Cup ties between these rivals rarely disappoint, though the stakes of a two-legged semi-final often produce cagier affairs than league meetings. You'll find the full range of markets for this one over at <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/soccer">Sportsbet</a>.</p> <p>Barcelona's away record and current momentum make them marginal favourites, while the goals markets present an interesting angle given both sides' defensive vulnerabilities this season. Barcelona have conceded 23 times in La Liga, with Atletico shipping 18, yet knockout football tends to bring added caution.</p> <h2>Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction: Our Pick</h2> <p>Barcelona's superior form and psychological advantage over Atletico makes them a strong proposition in Madrid, while the nature of first-leg semi-final football points towards a low-scoring encounter.</p> <p>The Catalans have solved Simeone's puzzle repeatedly this season, and the loss of Barrios weakens Atletico's ability to control the midfield battle. Barcelona's winning streak includes that remarkable comeback at this very ground, and they carry the confidence of defending champions who know how to navigate knockout rounds.</p> <p>However, first legs in semi-finals rarely produce goal fests. Both managers will prioritise not conceding ahead of the return fixture at Camp Nou, and Simeone's natural instinct is to set up compactly against superior opposition. With Atletico's attacking options compromised by fitness concerns and Barcelona content to take a narrow advantage back to Catalonia, expect a tactical affair that stays under the 2.5 goal threshold.</p> <h2>Keep Reading</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/soccer/soccer-news/carabao-cup-betting-guide">Your complete guide to betting on domestic cup competitions</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/soccer/soccer-news/what-is-xg-soccer-explained">What xG actually tells us (and what it doesn't)</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/soccer/soccer-news/most-trophies-football-history">The players who've won more silverware than anyone else</a></li> </ul>