Outside of the obvious questions such as “who will win the World Cup” and “who will score the most goals” pundits and punters alike love to speculate as to “who will be the best player at the World Cup?”

That honour is also known as winning the Golden Ball, or being crowned the Player of the Tournament, depending on who you ask. 

Before locking in your picks, it’s important to remember that unlike other major sporting events such as the NBA Finals or the NRL Grand Final, the Golden Ball doesn’t always go to a member of the winning team. 

In fact, only one of the last six winners actually went on to win the World Cup itself. That was one Lionel Messi (ever heard of him) at the most recent World Cup in Qatar.

Armed with that knowledge, we’ve cracked out the form guides, assessed the odds and crunched the numbers and come up with a selection of favourites and under the radar options for the 2026 World Cup Player of the Tournament. So, without further ado, here they are! 

World Cup Player of the Tournament Predictions – The Favourites

Harry Kane 

Leading the way in the outright odds is England’s captain and talisman Harry Kane. It’s not hard to see why either. 

You simply have to consult the numbers he’s put up over the last 12 months: 61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern Munich in 2025-26, plus the most goals of anyone in Europe this season. Insane.

If England click into gear, his finishing alone could carry him to a personal haul that rivals any forward at the tournament and secure him both this award and the Golden Boot. 

The catch is England themselves. They look strong, yet few pundits back them as outright winners. Kane needs a deep run, and the Three Lions reaching at least the semi-finals, to truly contend.

Lamine Yamal 

Up at the top of the odds alongside Kane is Spanish boy wonder Lamine Yamal. 

Despite being just 18, all eyes are on Yamal as he has been earmarked as the most thrilling creator at this World Cup.

His vision, dribbling and knack for the spectacular make him a magnet for the headlines. 

Spain also enter the tournament as outright favourites, and a deep run from La Roja will give the young gun ample opportunities to strut his stuff. 

The worry is his fitness. Recurring hamstring trouble has cast doubt over his sharpness, and Spain's ceiling is tied tightly to his health. Fit and flying, though, he could light up the tournament.

Kylian Mbappe

How has this man not won the Golden Ball yet? Kylian Mbappe has already assembled one of the most impressive World Cup resumes in history despite only featuring in two tournaments so far.

One title and one runners up finish in two tournaments, with 12 goals to boot. Insane. It’s safe to say, few players in the world carry the pedigree of Mbappe, after all, it’s not everyday you score a hat-trick in a World Cup final.

However, there are obstacles in his way. Friendly fire could come into play with teammates like Olise and Dembélé stealing the spotlight.

Also, Mbappé's goal-heavy game risks earning him Golden Boot recognition rather than the all-around narrative voters often reward. What a problem to have, hey? 

Michael Olise 

Speaking of Olise, he has transformed from a mid-table Premier League baller to one of the best players in the world in the space of a single season.

Since signing for Bayern Munich from Crystal Palace last year, Olise has won Bundesliga Player of the Season, posting a stunning 22 goals and 31 assists.

He also bagged a hat-trick in France’s final World Cup warm-up and looks set to outshine even Mbappe.

That all-around influence is key. Golden Ball voters love creators who shape matches, not just finish them, and Olise does both. With France among the title favourites, a deep run could thrust him into the spotlight.

Lionel Messi 

No player carries more aura heading into the 2026 World Cup than Lionel Messi. The only two-time Golden Ball winner in history, crowned in 2014 and 2022, he’ll go searching for back-to-back Player of the Tournament awards and World Cup trophies at this year’s finals.

Argentina can go as far as a healthy Messi takes them and vice versa, however, his biggest prohibitors are age and fitness. 

Saddling up for his international swansong, Messi needs his knocks kept to a minimum to stay influential deep into July. Remain fit however, and this could be the ultimate curtain call for football’s favourite son. 

World Cup Player of the Tournament Predictions – Under the Radar Options 

Bruno Fernandes 

Despite his elongated odds, few players arrive in better form than Bruno Fernandes. The Manchester United captain was named Premier League Player of the Season and set a new record with 21 assists, underlining the creative control that makes him Portugal's heartbeat.

Erling Haaland 

From one Premier League powerhouse to another, Erling Haaland is arguably the most clinical finisher on the planet. 

The narrative here writes itself, a World Cup debutant dragging his country into uncharted territory.

Haaland’s chances at personal glory are intrinsically tied to Norway’s fate at the finals and goals alone won't be enough; he needs the knockout stages to make voters take notice. 

Cristiano Ronaldo 

CR7 an under the radar option? Even the game’s greatest ever goalscorer isn’t immune to Father Time’s slow decay.

Now 41, this is well and truly the end of the road for Ronnie, and his influence for Portugal is not what it once was. 

These days Portugal's form runs through his teammates Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha, who shape games far more broadly. 

Yes, aura always sells, but Golden Ball voters reward influence. On that measure, Ronaldo's path looks far less likely than some of his fellow competitors. 

Previous Golden Ball Winners

The Golden Ball was first officially awarded at the 1978 World Cup and has been awarded at every iteration since. 

Here is the full list of Golden Ball winners since 1978:

2022: Lionel Messi (Argentina)

2018: Luka Modrić (Croatia)

2014: Lionel Messi (Argentina)

2010: Diego Forlán (Uruguay)

2006: Zinedine Zidane (France)

2002: Oliver Kahn (Germany)

1998: Ronaldo (Brazil)

1994: Romário (Brazil)

1990: Salvatore Schillaci (Italy)

1986: Diego Maradona (Argentina)

1982: Paolo Rossi (Italy)

1978: Mario Kempes (Argentina)