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Netherlands vs Japan Prediction

11/06/2026|SB Staff|World Cup 2026 Tips & Predictions
Netherlands vs Japan Prediction

The Netherlands and Japan will take to the field in their opening Group F contest, with Sweden and Tunisia following shortly thereafter.

It will give two of the nations expected to top the group the ability to take a step forward immediately, although it won't be an easy game. Read our Netherlands vs Japan preview now.

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Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Netherlands to win

Value bet: Van Dijk to score any time

Long shot: Netherlands to win 2-1

 

Netherlands vs Japan prediction

 

The Netherlands are the early favourites in the betting odds at Sportsbet, with the Oranje’s squad quality and depth likely to be a big factor.

Japan are an experienced nation, but they will be without Brighton ace Kaoru Mitoma for the tournament, which could be a huge blow for those weighing up who will be the Netherlands' leading scorer.

The Netherlands have won eight of their last nine Group Stage matches in this competition, adding to their status as favourites, as shown in our Netherlands vs Japan odds page.

The Dutch would reach the quarter-finals in 2022 before being eliminated in a penalty shootout against eventual winners Argentina, in a classic contest.

Still, Japan are no pushovers. The Asian nation did reach the Round of 16 in Qatar, beating Germany and Spain before being eliminated by Croatia on penalties.

The two met before, in 2010, when the Netherlands won 1-0.

 

Netherlands vs Japan score prediction

 

That scoreline some 16 years later looks a little more unlikely this time around.

The 'Both Teams to Score' market has hit during regulation time in eight of Japan's last nine matches as an underdog in this tournament, suggesting they can be prolific going forward while also being defensively vulnerable. This could be a concern against the calibre of Dutch players Ronald Koeman has available.

Indeed, including qualifiers, the 'Over 3.5 Goals' market has hit in four of the Netherlands' last five matches in this competition.

For potential additional value, the Netherlands to lead 1-0 at halftime is worth exploring. Japan has trailed 1-0 at half-time in each of its last two Group Stage matches at this major tournament as an underdog. Including qualifiers, the 'First Half Over 0.5 Goals' market has hit in each of the Netherlands' last 12 matches in this event.

Our prediction is that the Netherlands are likely winners, with 2-1 as the correct score offering value.

 

Netherlands vs Japan team news and line-ups

 

Netherlands are expected to line up in a 4-3-3. Ronald Koeman's side look set to attack down the flanks and push numbers forward in the final third. Matthijs de Ligt is out with a back problem requiring surgery, Bart Verbruggen is reportedly a doubt with a knock, while Jurrien Timber is expected to miss out.

Japan are expected to set up with a back three. The team is expected to defend in a three-man backline and rely on quick transitions through the wide channels. Koki Machida is expected to miss out with a fitness setback, while Yuto Nagatomo returns from suspension.

 

Netherlands vs Japan head-to-head record

 

Netherlands and Japan have met 4 times, and the overall record favours Netherlands, who lead 3 wins to 0 with 1 draw.

Their only previous World Cup meeting reportedly came in 2010, when the Netherlands edged Japan in the group stage. Check the latest World Cup betting.

The two sides are set to meet again at the World Cup, with the Netherlands yet to lose to Japan across their encounters.

 

Player markets to watch

 

Memphis Depay is the all-time leading scorer for the Netherlands and will be looking to add to his tally of 55 goals. He’ll come in good form for his national side, having scored four times in his last five competitive appearances. He only played 45 minutes in the recent run of friendlies, and will likely be looking to make his mark.

Virgil van Dijk is another who could have value for an anytime goal. The Liverpool defender is a huge aerial threat from corners and free-kicks. If he can outmuscle his defender and get free, he can head the ball as well as any forward in the opposition’s box.

With Mitoma missing, Hajime Moriyasu will likely look to players like Koki Ogawa to lead their charge and help them qualify. The NEC forward has been in good form for his country, scoring five times in his last five as they qualified for this tournament.

Takefusa Kubo might have to be the man to make a real difference creatively for the Samurai Blue. He performed well in LaLiga for Real Sociedad last season, scoring twice and providing four assists across 24 matches.

He’ll need to be at his best if he is to carve the Dutch’s defence, but he’s shown he is capable of an assist. He’ll likely influence the outcome of Ogawa’s game.

 

Netherlands vs Japan kick-off time (AEST)

 

Netherlands vs Japan kicks off at 6:00am AEST on Monday 15 June 2026. The match is played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where the local kick-off is 3:00pm on Sunday 14 June 2026.

 

How to watch Netherlands vs Japan in Australia (SBS)

 

You can watch Netherlands vs Japan live and free in Australia on SBS. SBS has the exclusive rights to the World Cup and is showing every match free-to-air, with some also on SBS VICELAND, so there is no subscription to worry about. For markets, check the men's World Cup outrights.

If you would rather stream, the match is live and free on SBS On Demand, which you can watch on your phone, tablet, computer or smart TV once you sign in to a free SBS account. Coverage is built around the 6:00am AEST kick-off on Monday 15 June 2026, so plan your morning accordingly.

Netherlands
Draw
Japan

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