Mexico vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Odds
09/06/2026|SB Staff|World Cup 2026 Tips & Predictions
Soccer’s biggest competition will get underway, with Mexico kicking the World Cup off against South Africa, sparking interest in Mexico's world cup scoring prospects.
It will be the first game of the tournament, with this Group A clash a repeat of the 2010 clash, taking place on the exact same day, some 16 years later.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, June 12, at 05:00 AEST.
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Quick Picks
- Our pick: Mexico to win
- Value bet: Over 2.5 Goals
- Long shot: 1-0 Half-Time Correct Score
Betting Preview
With this being the biggest tournament in the competition's history, many will expect Mexico to qualify from a group that includes South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia.
Indeed, El Tri are one of the host nations, so should have plenty of support. Mexican wave anyone?
Javier Aguirre will be leading the country for the third time, and his squad should be confident after winning back-to-back CONCACAF titles.
They will be looking to improve on 2022’s disappointment of group elimination, which ended a run of eight consecutive Round of 16 appearances.
Mexico will enter the tournament on the back of a win against Australia, and draws against Belgium and Portugal, all of which shape the men's World Cup outrights.
Interestingly, they’ll feature one of the only three players to have played in six World Cups: legendary goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa.
For South Africa, this will be the first time they’ve featured in the World Cup since hosting in 2010, where they were eliminated in the group stage. They did hold Mexico to a 1-1 draw in that opener.
Hugo Broos will be aiming to take his team as far as possible this time around, with Ronwen Williams his captain.
Heading into the tournament, Bafana Bafana have drawn two of their three friendlies (all played in South Africa), but they are winless in 2026.
Betting Markets to Watch
Mexico are considered strong favourites to win. They have won five of their last six major matches at Estadio Banorte.
Goals don’t often appear to be a problem at either end when Mexico play. While the first half can often be scoreless, four of Mexico's last five competition matches as a favourite have seen the goal total be over 2.5 goals.
Indeed, the '2nd Half Over 1.5 Goals' market has hit in five of Mexico's last six major tournament matches. There’s significant value worth exploring in this market if you think this can happen again.
With this in mind, we think there may be some value in the BTTS hitting. Although it has failed to hit in four of Mexico's last five tournament matches, the Bafana Bafana have the ability to exploit the additional home expectations and pressures on the hosts.
Our Prediction
Find all of our Mexico vs South Africa betting odds here, alongside 87 different betting markets.
We think it’s likely Mexico win this match, as they have home support and a settled squad.
Our long shot is in the ‘Draw 1-0 - Half-Time Correct Score’ market. The half-time scoreline might have been 0-0 in each of Mexico's last five tournament matches, but we think they’ll want to get on the scoresheet early in front of home fans.
Mexico vs South Africa team news and line-ups
Aguirre is dealing with a string of absentees that has forced reshuffling across defence and midfield ahead of the opener.
Edson Álvarez is expected to miss out with ankle surgery in February, Julián Araújo is expected to miss out with a hamstring injury, Ruiz is expected to miss out with a torn ACL, César Montes is reportedly a doubt with a fitness concern, Luis Chávez is reportedly a doubt with a fitness concern, while Alexis Vega is reportedly a doubt with a fitness concern.
Bafana Bafana arrive with a clean bill of health, though their preparation was reportedly disrupted by visa issues ahead of the trip.
Mexico vs South Africa head-to-head record
Mexico and South Africa have met 4 times, and the overall record favours Mexico, who lead 2 wins to 1 with 1 draw. Most of those Mexico wins came in friendlies, so the competitive picture reads very differently.
The pair met once at a World Cup, sharing a 1-all draw in the opening match of the 2010 tournament in Johannesburg.
Their most recent meeting was reportedly a 2010 World Cup match, with Mexico's last win over South Africa said to have come in a friendly encounter some years earlier.
Mexico vs South Africa kick-off time (AEST)
Mexico vs South Africa kicks off at 5:00am AEST on Friday 12 June 2026.
The match is played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, where the local kick-off is 1:00pm on Thursday 11 June 2026.
How to watch Mexico vs South Africa in Australia (SBS)
You can watch Mexico vs South Africa live and free in Australia on SBS. SBS has the exclusive rights to World Cup 2026 and is showing all 104 matches free-to-air, with some also on SBS VICELAND, so there is no subscription to worry about.
If you would rather stream, the match is live and free on SBS On Demand, which you can watch on your phone, tablet, computer or smart TV once you sign in to a free SBS account.
Coverage is built around the 5:00am AEST kick-off on Friday 12 June 2026, so plan your morning accordingly.


