Tonga vs Samoa Prediction – Pacific Championships Round 2 2025

Two of Polynesia’s perennial powerhouses will collide on Sunday, when Tonga takes on Samoa in Round 2 of the Pacific Championships at Suncorp Stadium.

These are arguably the strongest sides ever selected by these two nations, setting up a battle for the ages.

This will mark Tonga’s first outing of these Pacific Championships, while Samoa will be out to bounce back from their opening round loss to New Zealand.

Whoever wins this one, will be in pole position to qualify for the Pacific Cup final, but who will that be?

Looking for all the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this huge clash? Check out our Tonga vs Samoa predictions below.

 

Tonga vs Samoa Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

This is not only the headline match of Round 2, but arguably the headline match of the entire Pacific Championships.

Over the last decade both Tonga and Samoa have gradually been pressing their case as worthy rivals of both Australia and New Zealand on the international stage and now it looks as though they have arrived.

There’s no other way to put it, both squads are completely stacked and as it will be played on the mutual turf of Suncorp Stadium, trying to find an edge for either team seems almost impossible.

That’s probably why at the time of writing the H2H odds have this one as a dead heat, with both nations paying 1.90 a piece.

There’s only one thing for certain here, with names like Addin Fonua-Blake, Leka Halasima, Eliesa and Isaiya Katoa, Robert Toia and Jason Taumalolo going up against the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Brian To'o, Jarome Luai and Payne Haas, this is a math not to be missed.

The battle between the two halfbacks Isaiya Katoa and Jarome Luai is particularly compelling, with Luai being a NSW Origin incumbent and Katoa touted as his long-term successor.

Playing for the Dolphins, Katoa will be far more familiar with his surroundings at Lang Park and he and his teammates have the luxury of not having played yet these Championships.

These factors are enough when you’re looking to decide a literal coinflip, so we’re taking Tonga here, but not by more than a solitary try.

Betting tip: Tonga.

 

First Tryscorer

One of many Broncos who enjoyed a stellar end to the season as Brisbane rolled towards the premiership, Deine Mariner is a perpetual threat in the try scoring department.

If not for Casey McLean’s quickfire double, Mariner would have been first past the post in the try scoring department in Samoa’s game against New Zealand last week and we’re tipping him to ensure no one scores before he does here.

Betting tip: Deine Mariner.

 

Tonga vs Samoa Anytime Tryscorer Betting Tips

 

Leka Halasima

Tongan rookie sensation Leka Halasima announced himself as a try scoring freak in his first full season in the NRL.

The Warriors back-rower crossed 13 tries in 25 games and presents a very viable option for an anytime tryscorer here.

 

Brian To’o

The man they call Bizza is always busy on the wing whether he’s playing for the Panthers or Samoa.

While he drew a blank last start against the Kiwis, we’re backing him to make amends here and cross for a meat pie at some point during this one.

 

Eliesa Katoa

Yes, another Tongan forward. Like his countryman Leka Halasima, Melbourne second rower Elisea Katoa enjoyed a prolific season, crossing for a staggering 14 tries in 26 appearances.

 

Daniel Tupou

As one of the highest try scorers in NRL history, (number four to be exact), whenever Daniel Tupou runs onto the field, we want him in and around our options for anytime tryscorer.

 

Tonga vs Samoa Team Lists

 

Tonga Team List

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Tolu Koula

4. Robert Toia

5. Sione Katoa

6. Isaiah Iongi

7. Isaiya Katoa

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Siliva Havili

10. Stefano Utoikamanu

11. Siua Wong 

12. Eli Katoa

13. Jason Taumalolo

14. Soni Luke

15. Leka Halasima

16. Felise Kaufusi

17. Moeaki Fotuaika

 

Toa Samoa Team List

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

2. Brian To'o

3. Izack Tago

4. Deine Mariner

5. Murray Taulagi 

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Jarome Luai

8. Josh Papalii

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Payne Haas

11. Jeremiah Nanai

12. Simi Sasagi

13. Junior Paulo

14. Chanel Harris-Tavita

15. Benaiah Ioelu

16. Ativalu Lisati

17. Francis Molo

 

Tonga vs Samoa Match Details

 

Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025.

Kick-off: 4:00pm AEST.

Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.