The Melbourne Storm enter round 6 in unfamiliar territory, having suffered three consecutive losses for the first time since 2022, and Craig Bellamy will be desperate to arrest that slide in front of their home fans on Saturday night.

The Storm started the season strong with back-to-back wins before losing three in a row, including their Good Friday 50-10 loss at the hands of a ruthless Panthers side in round 5.

The Warriors, too, have lost their early momentum, falling to the Wests Tigers at home before failing to bounce back against the Cronulla Sharks, leaving both sides desperate for a confidence-boosting performance.

The good news for Storm fans is that the return of Jack Howarth and Moses Leo bolsters the backline, with both players back from injury after missing the defeat to Penrith.

For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of this semi-finals rematch, check out our Storm vs Warriors tips and predictions below.

Storm vs Warriors Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

The Storm’s dominance over the Warriors is almost unparalleled in the modern era.

They have a 17-game winning streak over the Warriors on the line, and Melbourne will be heavily motivated to put on a show. 

Nine of Melbourne’s last 11 victories over the Warriors have come by 10 points or more, with the Storm having posted 30+ points in each of the last four encounters.

The Warriors haven’t tasted victory at AAMI Park since 2014, making their task this Saturday an incredibly steep one despite their solid early-season form.

We predict Melbourne to bounce back, assuming Bellamy has given his famous spray to his side, and with their history against the Warriors, it would take a lot for the Warriors to upset the trend when these two play each other.

Betting tip: Melbourne Storm.

First Try Scorer Prediction

Joe Chan has scored a try in each of Melbourne’s last two home games, and his role is simple: playing next to Jahrome Hughes, who can pick apart the Warriors' defence with his running game to set up his back-rower.

Betting tip: Joe Chan.

Over/Under Prediction

Nine of the last ten matches between Melbourne and New Zealand have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over (47.5) total match points.

Line Prediction

The Storm have covered this in three of the last five meetings with the Warriors, and with the Warriors down on troops in the spine, Melbourne have the attacking power to be ruthless. 

Betting tip: Storm (-8.5) line.

Storm vs Warriors Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips

Jahrome Hughes

Jahrome Hughes has scored at least one try in five of his last six home appearances against opponents that were ranked in the top eight.

Moses Leo

In 11 of New Zealand’s last 13 matches at AAMI Park, the opposition’s starting left wing has scored at least one try, and it would be a great way to return from injury.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored at least one try in five of his last six appearances with New Zealand as an underdog, and will be looking to make a impact with his try-scoring ability coming off a game where he scored three tries against the Sharks in round 5.

Storm vs Warriors Teams

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Sualauvi Fa’alogo

2. Will Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Moses Leo

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant (c)

10. Josh King

11. Joe Chan

12. Cooper Clarke

13. Trent Loiero

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Jack Hetherington

17. Davvy Moale

18. Lazarus Vaalepu

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Taine Tuaupiki

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

4. Adam Pompey

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tevita

7. Tanah Boyd

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Wayde Egan

10. Jackson Ford

11. Leka Halasima

12. Jacob Laban

13. Erin Clark

14. Sam Healey

15. Marata Niukore

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

18. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava

Storm vs Warriors Match Details

Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026.

Kick-off: 7:35pm AEDT.

Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne.