<p>It all comes down to this - the decider. State of Origin Game 3 is almost here and with this year’s series currently poised at 1-1, whoever is ahead at Accor Stadium on Wednesday July 9, when the siren sounds, will be taking home the shield.</p> <p>Before this year’s series began, it was widely tipped that NSW would comfortably retain the shield. It certainly seemed that way after the first game, when the Blues ran out comfortable winners in the Maroons own backyard.</p> <p>One trip out West changed everything, as QLD launched one of their famous Origin ambushes in front of a disbelieving Perth crowd.</p> <p>With injury clouds, SOSs to retired players and media mind games all swirling around this one, we can’t wait to see how it all plays out.&nbsp;</p> <p>That’s why we’re cracking out the crystal ball a week ahead of kick off to try and decipher which state will reign supreme in State of Origin Game 3.</p> <p>For the latest State of Origin Game 3 teams lists, analysis, news and betting tips, check out our State of Origin Game 3 predictions below.<br /> <br /> In addition to offering up some handy predictions&nbsp;for Origin Game 3, Sportsbet are offering punters the chance to get a guarenteed share of $1 million in bonus bets. *All you have to do is copy any Origin Same Game Multi from the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed">feed</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>State of Origin Game 3 Team Lists</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Queensland</h3> <p>1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (The Dolphins)&nbsp;</p> <p>2. Xavier Coates (Melbourne Storm)</p> <p>3. Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>4. Gehamat Shibasaki (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>5.&nbsp; Valentine Holmes (St George Illawarra Dragons)</p> <p>6. Cameron Munster © (Melbourne Storm)</p> <p>7. Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>8. Josh Papali’i (Canberra Raiders)</p> <p>9. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)&nbsp;</p> <p>10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)</p> <p>11. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>12. Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors)</p> <p>13. Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm)&nbsp;</p> <p>14. Kurt Mann (Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs)&nbsp;</p> <p>15. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>16. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>17. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)&nbsp;</p> <p>18. Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>19. J’maine Hopgood (Parramatta Eels)</p> <p>20. Josh Kerr (The Dolphins)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>New South Wales</h3> <p>1. Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>2. Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>3. Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs)</p> <p>4. Latrell Mitchell (South Sydney Rabbitohs)</p> <p>5. Zac Lomax (Parramatta Eels)</p> <p>6. Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)</p> <p>7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>8. Max King (Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs)</p> <p>9. Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>11. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>12. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters)&nbsp;</p> <p>13. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>14. Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>15. Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters)&nbsp;</p> <p>16. Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)</p> <p>17. Stefano Utoikamanu (Melbourne Storm)</p> <p>18. Jacob Kiraz (Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs)</p> <p>19. Lindsay Smith (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>20. Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights)</p>

<h2>State of Origin Game 3 Predictions and Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Head-to-Head Prediction</h3> <p>Despite pulling off a dramatic ambush in Game II, the Queensland Marrons will enter the decider as significant underdogs in the H2H market.</p> <p>This is mostly due to a couple of factors. Yes, they won Game II, but only just. After leading 26-6 at halftime, they went on to concede four second-half tries and if not for the wayward boot of Zac Lomax, could have lost the game by four points.</p> <p>Scoring less tries than your opponent and still winning the game is obviously somewhat of a warning sign, as we doubt NSW will be as merciful off the tee this time around.</p> <p>The other major factor working against Billy Slater’s men is of course, home ground advantage.</p> <p>Unlike the first two matches, this one will be played in the belly of the blue beast, Sydney’s Accor Stadium. Can the Maroons overcome the noise and animosity that will be directed their way?</p> <p>They’re certainly doing everything in their power to summon as much of that famous Queensland spirit as possible. That includes prop Josh Papali’i crawling out of the grave that is representative retirement to answer the call of his state.</p> <p>Elsewhere, Brisbane centre, Gehamat Shibasaki, who started this season on a train and trial deal, has gone from potential injury cover for the Broncos, to making his Origin debut for Queensland in a decider down south.</p> <p>Still, we doubt all this underdog behaviour will be enough to topple the Blues who simply possess too much firepower across the board.</p> <p>We’re sure Billy’s boys will give it a fair knock, but as long as Cleary is cleared to play and Lomax’s aim stays true this time, we fancy the Blues to retain the Shield in a hard-fought and cagey affair.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> New South Wales.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>First Try Scorer Prediction</h3> <p>The statistics heading into this one seems to be pointing at two players for this market and they both hail from north of the border.</p> <p>Firstly, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored at least one try in four of his five previous Origin appearances with Queensland as an underdog.</p> <p>While his backline partner, Valentine Holmes, has been the first try-scorer in four of his five previous Origin Game III appearances with Queensland as an underdog.</p> <p>While Holmes’ stat line is rather eye-catching, particularly for this specific market, the form of the Hammer at the moment is simply irresistible.</p> <p>Not only did Tabuai-Fidow cross for a very early double in Game II (if not for a Brian To’o try in the 6th minute, he would have opened the scoring), his form for his club side has been out of this world.</p> <p>He ran in no less than four tries last week for the Dolphins as they put 50 on the Bunnies and that was at fullback, where he’ll be lining up for this game, after Kalyn Ponga was ruled out with injury.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Over/Under Prediction</h3> <p>A standoff like no other, both sides know the price of being the first to blink here.</p> <p>Deciders always seem to boil down to who can make the least errors and as a result, tough, disciplined, intelligent footy is nearly always the order of the day.</p> <p>That’s why it isn’t all that surprising to discover that each of the last five Origin III matches have gone under the total match points line.</p> <p>Unless one team falls behind by a significant margin and is forced to throw both caution and the footy to the wind, we are tipping the under to once again be the outcome to hit for this market.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Under total match points.</p>

<h2>State of Origin Game 3 Match Details</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Date:</strong> Wednesday, July 9, 2025.</p> <p><strong>Kick-off: </strong>8:05pm AEST.</p> <p><strong>Location: </strong>Accor Stadium, Sydney.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>*First SGM copied. Min stake $5. Min total odds $2. Participating customers will receive an equal share. Excl ACT residents. T&amp;Cs apply.&nbsp;</em></p>