The 2026 State of Origin series will begin at Accor Stadium on Wednesday night, the same venue where Queensland sealed last year’s series with an upset victory. 

New South Wales enters this year’s series as favourites. Interestingly, home-ground advantage has counted for little in recent years, with neither side winning at their home venue since the Blues claimed Origin III at Accor Stadium in 2023. 

With the recent eligibility rule changes, Laurie Daley has named six debutants for New South Wales, including starters Tolutau Koula on the wing and Addin Fonua-Blake at prop. 

Meanwhile, there are four debutants for Billy Slater’s Queensland side, with Jojo Fifita, Sam Walker and Max Plath all named in the starting side, while Briton Nikora joins the interchange. Reece Walsh is one of the more notable omissions for the Maroons. 

New South Wales claimed an 18-6 victory in last year’s series opener at Suncorp Stadium, but whenever at home and installed as the favourites, things rarely go their way. 

How will this one play out on Wednesday night? For all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this year’s Origin opener, check out our expert State of Origin Game I predictions and below.

State of Origin Game 1 Predictions and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction

We’ve seen this movie before. New South Wales listed as the strong favourites in the H2H market, playing at home and packing a squad full of top, in form players. 

Well, to absolutely no one’s surprise, Queensland have won six of their last nine Origin matches as an underdog and for once, we aren’t going to get ambushed by the Maroons.

We can’t say the same for the Blues however, who constantly seem to crumble under the pressure of home ground advantage and favouritism. 

Their star man and halfback, Nathan Cleary, is a microcosm of this consistent failure on the Origin stage.

There is no doubt he is comfortably the best player on the planet, with his achievements for both Penrith and Australia, speaking for themselves. However, for whatever reason, he struggles to take care of business once he pulls on that NSW jersey.

Perhaps it’s a case of ‘heavy lies the crown’ as the ghosts of Joey Johns, Peter Stirling and all the other legendary NSW No.7s from years gone by linger around that famous shirt.

For players from Queensland, the opposite seems to happen once they pull on that maroon jersey. Regardless of form, ability, or experience, they nearly always turn in a performance worthy of the rugby league giants that came before them.

We can’t help but think that will once again be the case come Wednesday night. A quick look at the QLD lineup and you’ll see young Sam Walker thrown into the deep end for his Origin debut at halfback, with Billy Slater deliberately opting to pick him ahead of Origin veteran Cherry-Evans.

This is his Ben Ikin moment and don’t think Slater and the rest of the selectors don’t know that.

They’ve once again teed this up for another classic upset, picking players that embody that famous Queensland spirit, instead of just form and status. 

Betting tip: Queensland.

First Try Scorer Prediction 

We’ve zeroed in on two men for this market, pick accordingly depending on which side you think will get off to the hotter start.

For the Blues, we love the look of winger Brian To’o. The bigger the game, the bigger the performance from Bizza. 

He’s scored seven tries in his last five Origin appearances and we expect his Panther’s teammate Nathan Cleary to go looking for him early out on that wing. 

Meanwhile, across state lines, you have The Hammer. Tabuai-Fidow has turned into somewhat of an Origin specialist, picking up three tries in his last five starts for QLD.

You can’t go too far astray backing either of these speed demons but seeing as we fancy Queensland to win this one, we’ll be calling Hammer time here. 

Betting tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. 

Over/Under Prediction 

Traditionally, Origin has always been a grind, particularly Game I, as both sides want to start the series off on the right foot by making as few mistakes as possible. 

On top of this, twelve of the last 16 Origin matches at Accor Stadium have gone under the total match points line.

Betting tip: Under (42.5) total match points. 

Line Prediction

Queensland has covered the line in each of its last three Origin I matches at Accor Stadium.

Betting tip: Queensland (+4.5) line. 

Player of the Match Prediction 

Two of the last three State of Origin Man of the Match recipients won’t feature in this game. 

Both Payne Haas and Tom Dearden are out of this one, meaning only Cameron Munster 

Out of luck and out of form at club level, you’d think it would be time to steer clear of Munster for this market. 

Well, if you know anything about the Maroons captain, he seems to be at his happiest when his back is firmly pressed against a wall.

This has all been once again set up perfectly for another Munster masterclass, one we are backing him to deliver accordingly. 

Betting tip: Cameron Munster. 

State of Origin Game 1 Team Lists 

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Robert Toia

4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

5. Jojo Fifita

6. Cameron Munster (c)

7. Sam Walker

8. Tom Flegler

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

11. Reuben Cotter 

12. Kurt Capewell

13. Max Plath

14. Briton Nikora

15. Lindsay Collins

16. Pat Carrigan

17. Trent Loiero

18. Ezra Mam

19. Gehamat Shibasaki

20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

New South Wales 

1. James Tedesco

2. Brian To'o 

3. Stephen Crichton

4. Kotoni Staggs

5. Tolu Koula

6. Mitchell Moses

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Reece Robson

10. Mitch Barnett

11. Hudson Young

12. Haumole Olakau'atu

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Cameron Murray

15. Victor Radley

16. Jacob Saifiti

17. Blayke Brailey

18. Ethan Strange

19. Casey McLean

20. Dylan Lucas

State of Origin Game 1 Match Details 

Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2026. 

Kick-off: 8:05pm AEST. 

Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney.