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State of Origin Game 1 Tips & Predictions

31/05/2024|SB Staff|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
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<p>Following weeks of speculation as to who was and who was not going to make it, both Billy Slater and Michael Maguire named their teams for the first State of Origin game of the year.</p> <p>As usual, there were surprise omissions, shock bolters and a swathe of unavailable stars ruled out with injury.</p> <p>New Blues coach Maguire has wasted no time making his presence felt, overhauling the Blues squad with six debutants as well as axing long-standing captain James Tedesco from the squad completely.</p> <p>There is much more stability in the Queensland camp with the Maroons, and coach Billy Slater. He has won his first two series as Maroons coach and is hopeful of leading QLD to yet another three-peat.</p> <p>While he has been able to keep a stable squad together, Slater has been forced into making a shuffle with front row pairing Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Tom Flegler both out for the season with injury.</p> <p>Lindsay Collins and 2023 Wally Lewis medallist Reuben Cotter will start at prop. The only real shock was the absence of Titan David Fifita from the squad with Slater opting to go for debutant J’maine Hopgood and carry Selwyn Cobbo also on the bench.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>QLD State of Origin Game 1 Team</h2> <p>1.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reece Walsh (Broncos)</p> <p>2.&nbsp; &nbsp; Xavier Coates (Storm)</p> <p>3.&nbsp; &nbsp; Valentine Holmes (Cowboys)</p> <p>4.&nbsp; &nbsp; Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)</p> <p>5.&nbsp; &nbsp; Murray Tualagi (Cowboys)</p> <p>6.&nbsp; &nbsp; Tom Dearden (Cowboys)</p> <p>7.&nbsp; &nbsp; Daly Cherry-Evans © (Sea Eagles)</p> <p>8.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reuben Cotter (Cowboys)</p> <p>9.&nbsp; &nbsp; Ben Hunt (Dragons)</p> <p>10.&nbsp; &nbsp;Lindsay Collins (Roosters)</p> <p>11.&nbsp; &nbsp;Jayden Su’A (Broncos)</p> <p>12.&nbsp; &nbsp;Jerimiah Nanai (Cowboys)</p> <p>13.&nbsp; &nbsp;Patrick Carrigan (Broncos)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Interchange:</em></p> <p>14.&nbsp; &nbsp;Harry Grant (Storm)</p> <p>15.&nbsp; &nbsp;Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans)</p> <p>16.&nbsp; &nbsp;J’maine Hopgood (Eels)</p> <p>10.&nbsp; &nbsp;Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Reserves:</em></p> <p>Felise Kafusi (Dolphins)</p> <p>Brendan Piakura (Broncos)</p> <p>Ezra Mam (Broncos)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>NSW State of Origin Game 1 Team</h2> <p>1.&nbsp; &nbsp; Dylan Edwards (Panthers)</p> <p>2.&nbsp; &nbsp; Brian To’o (Panthers)</p> <p>3.&nbsp; &nbsp; Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs)</p> <p>4.&nbsp; &nbsp; Jospeh Sua’ali’I (Roosters)</p> <p>5.&nbsp; &nbsp; Zac Lomax (Dragons)</p> <p>6.&nbsp; &nbsp; Jarome Luai (Panthers)</p> <p>7.&nbsp; &nbsp; Nicho Hynes (Sharks)</p> <p>8.&nbsp; &nbsp; Jake Trbojevic © (Sea Eagles)</p> <p>9.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reece Robson (Cowboys)</p> <p>10.&nbsp;&nbsp;Payne Haas (Broncos)</p> <p>11.&nbsp;&nbsp;Liam Martin (Panthers)</p> <p>12.&nbsp;&nbsp;Angus Chrichton (Roosters)</p> <p>13.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cameron McInnes (Sharks)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Interchange:</em></p> <p>14.&nbsp;&nbsp;Isaah Yeo (Panthers)</p> <p>15.&nbsp;&nbsp;Haumole Olakau’atu (Sea Eagles)</p> <p>16.&nbsp;&nbsp;Spencer Leniu (Roosters)</p> <p>17.&nbsp;&nbsp;Hudson Young (Raiders)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Reserves:</em></p> <p>Matt Burton (Bulldogs)</p> <p>Luke Keary (Roosters)</p> <p>Mitchell Barnett (Warriors)</p>
<h2>QLD Players to watch:</h2> <p><strong>Reece Walsh: </strong>Queensland’s boy wonder had his first taste of the Origin stage last year and proved he was ready for the furnace of Origin footy.</p> <p>Ready to the point that he got himself suspended for Game 3. Because some passion and stepping close to the line comes with every Origin battle doesn’t it?</p> <p>He shook off an injury niggle that saw him miss Magic Round to get back for last week's clash with the Titans and is readying himself for his second crack as the main man at the back for the Maroons.</p> <p>He has scored nine tries with four assists and sent 17 goals over the back dot for the Broncos this season and has shown his acceleration is again like no other fullback in the NRL.</p> <p>While he has yet to open his Origin scoring account – you sense that is not too far away.</p> <p>Big game players always seem to find something extra when Origin comes around. There’s truly little doubt that Walsh will not have something special in store.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Valentine Holmes: </strong>We are on stat watch with Holmes in this Origin series.</p> <p>He’s scored 13 tries in his 16 Origin appearances for QLD, sitting only five behind the great Greg Inglis as QLD’s greatest-ever try scorer (18).</p> <p>While there has been a plethora of problems in Townsville this season, Holmes has been central to their point-scoring flurries, amassing 36% of his side’s points this season. The Maroons' outside back’s seven tries are the second most among centres this season, while only Cobbo and Joey Manu have broken more tackles.</p> <p>Whether they line up on the left or right side of the field, few can argue the Cowboys dynamic duo of Val Holmes and Murray Taulagi will do everything they can to guide Queensland to victory.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>NSW Players to watch:</h2> <p><strong>Dylan Edwards: </strong>His exploits at the Panthers over several years has proven that Dylan Edwards belongs at this level. Now he has finally got a chance to show it after he has earned his Origin debut.</p> <p>Stepping into the shoes of James Tedesco will be no easy feat, but Blues coach Michael Maguire insists he is ready to go at fullback after his consistent form again for the Panthers this year.</p> <p>The spotlight will be on and shining brightly.</p> <p>Not a bad stage for the first Origin game that Edwards will ever attend aye.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Cameron McInnes: </strong>Cameron McInnes will make his debut for the Blues at lock in 2024 and is arguably the best selection that new coach Michael Maguire has made, taking a tip from his opponents.</p> <p>Origin requires workers and there is probably no one in the NRL that works as hard as Cam McInnes does for the Sharks week in and week out. He is a wholehearted team man who puts his teammates first and his body and smile last.&nbsp;</p> <p>McInnes is exactly what it means to play Origin and, probably, should have been in the NSW side a long time ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>The Blues are going to need efforts like his if they are going to stand a chance and break the two-year drought against the Queenslanders. The inspiration that the Botany Ram provides could spark NSW to an underdog victory.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>State of Origin Game 1 Prediction</h2> <p>The Maroons are chasing their third series win in a row but will only begin the series with the slightest of favouritism.</p> <p>The Blues have a 21-10 record at Accor Stadium, with a raucous home crowd supporting them first up, which must be an advantage as well.</p> <p>But The Maroons have won the last three series openers staged in Sydney (2022, 2016 + 2015) which should see punters leaning towards the defending champs again.</p> <p>Despite the Maroons losing some power upfront and the Blues picking a team with in-form players it will be the stability and experience that will determine the winner in this one.</p> <p>Whether favorites or rank outsiders, the Maroons show a far greater ability to find their feet from the outset of a series.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>They have prevailed in 10 of the last 15 series openers, including four of the last five. Last year’s late rally to win 26-18 in Adelaide was one of the great wins.</p> <p>It is exciting to see fresh faces in the mix, NSW’s slew of new combinations puts the pressure on Hynes (if he gets up to play) to run this team in his first Origin start.</p> <p>Queensland has not won by more than six points in Sydney since 2009, while 12 of the last 14 Origins at Accor Stadium have produced 32 points or less.</p> <p>So, it will be tight, but the experience and in-sync-ness of the Maroons should be enough to withstand a new Blues ambush and head to Melbourne with one hand on the shield.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Prediction:</strong> Queensland win, Zac Lomax first try scorer, Under (36.5) Total match points.</p>

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