State of Origin Game 1 Prediction

<p>Both Billy Slater and Brad Fittler ended weeks of speculation when they named their respective Origin sides earlier this week.</p> <p>Both teams had shocks, surprises, and stalwarts, as they now enter camp and prepare for Game 1 in Adelaide on May 31st.</p> <p>A number of players, such as Reece Walsh, Tevita Pangai Junior, Hudson Young and Nicho Hynes, will make their Origin debuts in Game 1.</p> <p>There were also recalls on each side of the border for David Fifita and Tyson Frizell, as well as the shock omissions of veterans and proven representative players Dane Gagai and Damien Cook.</p> <p>With both teams now locked in, the only question left to be answered is who will take the first crucial step to secure the Origin shield and win Game 1?</p> <p>Will it be the favourites NSW, or will QLD do what they do best and spring yet another ambush on the unsuspecting Blues?</p> <p>Our State of Origin Game 1 prediction is below.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>QLD State of Origin Game 1 Team</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ol> <li>Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)</li> <li>Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos)</li> <li>Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)</li> <li>Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (The Dolphins)</li> <li>Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys)</li> <li>Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)</li> <li>Daly Cherry-Evans © (Manly Sea Eagles)</li> <li>Thomas Flegler (Brisbane Broncos)</li> <li>Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons)</li> <li>Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)</li> <li>David Fifita (Gold Coast Titans)</li> <li>Tom Gilbert (The Dolphins)</li> <li>Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)</li> <li>Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)</li> <li>Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)</li> <li>Rueben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)</li> <li>Jai Arrow (South Sydney Rabbitohs)</li> <li>Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys)</li> <li>Christian Welch (Melbourne Storm)</li> </ol> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>NSW State of Origin Game 1 Team</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ol> <li>James Tedesco © (Sydney Rooster)</li> <li>Brain To’o (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Tom Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)</li> <li>Josh Addo-Carr (Canterbury Bulldogs)</li> <li>Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Tevita Pangai Junior (Canterbury Bulldogs)</li> <li>Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers)</li> <li>Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)</li> <li>Tyson Frizell (Newcastle Knights)</li> <li>Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)</li> <li>Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels)</li> <li>Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)</li> <li>Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Nicholas Hynes (Cronulla Sharks)</li> <li>Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers)</li> <li>Stefano Utoikamanu (Wests Tigers)</li> </ol> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>QLD Player to Watch</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>Reece Walsh</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Queensland has always adopted a strict “loyalty over form” approach to State of Origin, but that has gone out the window for this series.</p> <p>Headlining this new approach is Reece Walsh, who jagged the QLD fullback spot ahead of incumbent Kalyn Ponga after his form for the Brisbane Broncos became impossible to ignore.</p> <p>The decision to pick Walsh over Ponga is not as straightforward as the form guide suggests.</p> <p>If it were simply on who has performed better this season, no one would bat an eye at his selection.</p> <p>However, Origin is almost a completely different sport to regular NRL; as of now, Walsh is untested in that arena.</p> <p>Ponga, on the other hand, has already played seven times for QLD, delivering every time he’s pulled on that maroon jumper, including winning Player of the Match in Game 3 of last year’s series.</p> <p>Regardless of whether they think he should be getting the start over Ponga, Walsh, under the tutelage of Billy Slater (arguably the game’s greatest-ever fullback), is a mouthwatering prospect for supporters north of the border.</p> <p>His debut has been a long time in the making after a hamstring tear robbed him of his Origin bow in Game 2 of the 2021 series.</p> <p>Back then, he was a fresh-faced 18-year-old with just seven games of NRL experience under his belt and, simply put, was not ready for the Origin arena.</p> <p>Two years on, Walsh is one of the form players in the competition, leading the Broncos to the top four and into premiership contention.</p> <p>So, is he ready for the Origin furnace now? We’re about to find out.</p>

<h3>NSW Player to Watch</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>Tevita Pangai Junior</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>From a somewhat expected inclusion to one few, if any, saw coming. While Reece Walsh’s selection can be considered somewhat risky, it’s nothing compared to NSW’s decision to select Tevita Pangai Junior.</p> <p>Few players embody the phrase “rocks or diamonds” like the Bulldogs' firebrand.</p> <p>Short on middles and looking to shake things up, NSW head coach Brad Fittler has turned to TPJ and turned more than a few heads in the process.</p> <p>Fittler explained his reasoning for picking Pangai with just four words: “Let’s have a gamble.”</p> <p>There’s having a gamble, and then there’s putting the house on red, Freddy has done the latter.</p> <p>Pangai’s ability with the ball in hand has never been questioned, it’s what happens when he doesn’t have it, and that is cause for concern for NSW supporters.</p> <p>His tendency to give away needless penalties and become engaged in personal battles, while forgetting about the overall result of the game is what will worry them.</p> <p>These traits could be a recipe for disaster in the Origin cauldron, but Fittler knows how valuable Pangai’s aggression and late offloads will be if he can keep his emotions in check.</p> <p>Injuries and form have also dogged Pangai in recent times, and he even spent a stint in NSW Cup with Newtown last year.</p> <p>However, after starring in the Doggies' last-minute, come-from-behind win against the Titans last week, TPJ forced his way into Fittler’s plans.</p> <p>Will Freddy’s gamble pay off? Or will he be left ruing his decision to include the unpredictable 27-year-old on his side? We’ll find out in Adelaide on May 31st.</p>

<h2>State of Origin Game 1 Final Prediction</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>State of Origin heads to the Adelaide Oval for the first time since 2020 and for only the second time in history.</p> <p>In the Head-to-Head (H2H) market, the Maroons enter this clash, as they have in recent times, as underdogs.</p> <p>However, this shouldn’t deter punters from backing the defending champs, as Queensland has won three of the last four Origin Game 1’s they have entered as the underdog.</p> <p>Regarding who will cross the stripe first in this encounter, certified try machine and big game specialist Valentine Holmes presents immense value for someone who has scored 11 tries in 13 appearances for QLD.</p> <p>While Holmes is a very real chance of finding the line, don’t go too crazy on the try scorers, as Origin matches, in particular the opening game, are usually cagey affairs.</p> <p>Ten of the last 12 opening Origin matches have gone under the total match points line, which this year is 36.5.</p> <p>So where exactly will this game be won or lost? The decision to omit consistent and experienced rake Damien Cook could cost the Blues dearly, with starting hooker Api Koroisau not the most reliable 80-minute dummy half and no other recognised No.9 on the pine.</p> <p>Reigning Dally M medalist Nicho Hynes will likely be the one to replace Koroisau at some point in the match, being given a license to roam in the middle while providing service from dummy half.</p> <p>While his talents and versatility are well documented, hooker is perhaps the one spine position Hynes hasn’t played, and it could very much be a case of trying to force a square peg in a round hole for Freddy and his Blues.</p> <p>In reality, Hynes should be starting in the halves. The decision to stay loyal to incumbent Jarome Luai could return to bite Fittler.</p> <p>The pressure is definitely on the Blues to make the most of the embarrassment of riches at their disposal and make a statement.</p> <p>This was also the case the last time both states met in Adelaide three years ago when QLD rolled out what many called "the worst Origin team in history", yet they ambushed the NSW.</p> <p>Can the Blues redeem themselves this year? We think so!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Final prediction:</strong> NSW win, Valentine Holmes First Try Scorer and Under (36.5) the Total Match Points.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Sugars Final Thoughts</h2> <p><strong>Match Tip – Blues 1-12 $2.80</strong></p> <p>This is set up to be a beauty! This is one of the better Blues sides we have seen assembled. The risk for QLD is the inexperience of their back 3. When you factor in Big Game experience (NRL Finals &amp; Representative Football), the Trio of the Old Bulls Addo-Carr, Tedesco and Too boast an enormous 100 ‘Big Games’ between them against the Young Bulls of QLD Tualagi, Walsh and Cobbo of just 8. Throw in Superstars Cleary, Haas, Mitchell and Trbojevic (Who have only lost two games from 9 in Origin) it's impossible to look past them. Great respect for Billy Slaters' men though, who will push the Blues the whole way. Since 2004 84% of Origin Openers were decided by a 1-12, and this should be no different.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>First Try Scorer – Valentine Holmes $16 &amp; Brian To’o $11.50</strong></p> <p>Pressure; some eat it, and some get eaten by it. These fellas absolutely love the big stage. Val has scored 11 tries in 14 Origin Matches but wastes no time getting into the match; Holmes has been the first try scorer six times! If you are looking for a Blues Player, consider Brian To’o. We know historically, left-sided players have a far better record here, and To’o ($11.50) represents far better value than Josh Addo Carr, the Fox ($9.50), who will play on the right side.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Anytime Try Scorer – Stephen Crichton $TBD</strong></p> <p>The Blues Left Centre has scored 6 tries in the last 6 games. Stephen Crichton comes in at the 11th hour and this young fellow just loves the big stage. He is still only 22 and already has a try in each of the last 3 consecutive Grand Finals (Only player to do it since Brett Kenny in the 80s) and he scored in both World Cup Final and Semi-final last year. A match winner.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Man of the Match – James Tedesco, $7 &amp; Reece Walsh, $14</strong></p> <p>James Tedesco. Many people have been criticising Teddys form this year. Never. Write. Off. A. Champ. Come Kick off, he wouldn’t have played a match for 12 Days. This is exactly what will help this legend come out and run his customary 20+ carries. If he does that, he must be in the conversation for the Player of the Match. Reece Walsh is one if QLD win. He will need to have had a memorable debut.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Wally Lewis Medal (Player of the Series) – Payne Haas $13 &amp; Reece Walsh $21</strong></p> <p>The new Dally M system is a beauty and far more reflective of the player's performances and our best gauge here for a consistent award. To this point, the players who are averaging the Most Dally M Points per Games Played* this year (* Denotes they need to be playing their regular role here) include Payne Hass for NSW ( 2.7 ppg) and Reece Walsh for QLD (2.2 ppg).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>State of Origin Game 1 Odds</h3>

<h3>State of Origin Game 1 Match Details</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>Location:</strong> Adelaide Oval.</li> <li><strong>Date:</strong> Wednesday, May 31, 2023.</li> <li><strong>Kick-off time:</strong> 8:05pm AEST</li> </ul> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>