Rugby League World Cup Tips and Predictions - Semi Finals

After a thrilling final round of group matches, the 2026 Rugby League World Cup has been cut down to just four nations.

That’s right, it’s Semi Finals time already in international football’s showpiece event and two of New Zealand, Tonga, Australia and Samoa will be moving on to next weekend’s final here. 

The Kiwis and Kangaroos come in off a couple of cakewalks against Fiji and the Cook Islands respectively, meaning they’ll be a lot fresher than their adversaries.

Those adversaries are of course Tonga and Samoa who played out one of the greatest games in Test history to close out the pool proceedings.

How they both back up from what was a beyond bruising encounter remains to be seen. But they’ll need to hit the ice baths quick, because the killer Kiwis and all-conquering Kangaroos are laying in wait for them.

Who is moving on to the RLWC Final? Let’s find out! 

For all the latest news, analysis, and odds ahead of this week's RLWC action, check out our Rugby League World Cup Semi Finals tips and predictions below.

New Zealand vs Tonga Prediction

Saturday, November 7, 8:05pm AEDT – McDonald Jones Stadium 

New Zealand enter this RLWC semi-final on the back of a ruthless 78-0 demolition of Fiji, a result that showcased just how dangerous this Kiwi side can be when their attack clicks into gear.

That scoreline however, masks some real selection headaches. Ronaldo Mulitalo misses out through suspension after a one-game ban, while Jacob Laban is sidelined with a lower leg injury, with Phoenix Crossland stepping into his place. 

There's a genuine chance Kalyn Ponga could make a sensational return from a broken arm, and if he does, it would be one of the great comeback stories of this tournament.

Tonga, meanwhile, arrive with momentum and emotion on their side. Their 20-18 victory over Samoa last start was an epic, decided in the margins, and it has galvanised a squad that plays with a physicality few teams can match. 

Isaiya Katoa's return from an ankle injury was a huge boost for their spine, and the extra control, composure and creativity he brings to his side was plain for all to see against Samoa. 

He was also perfect off the tee, converting 4/4 and a player of his calibre in this kind of form is exactly what is needed to trouble a team as talented as New Zealand.

This has the makings of a tight, physical contest. If Ponga plays, New Zealand's attacking depth should give them the edge, but Tonga's forward pack being marshalled by Katoa certainly have the ability to send the Kiwis packing one game short of the final. 

Head-to-head prediction: Tonga. 

Betting tip: Robert Toia first try scorer. 

Australia vs Samoa Prediction 

Sunday, November 8, 8:05pm AEDT – Allianz Stadium 

Australia cruised past Cook Islands 66-6 in a scoreline the devil would be proud of. Reece Walsh continued his sensational form by claiming back-to-back player of the match awards, showing why Kevin Walters opted to pick him ahead of James Tedesco.

That kind of individual brilliance is exactly what can break open a tight semi-final, and Walsh looks to be peaking at the perfect time. 

However, Australia aren't without their concerns. Mitchell Moses is out for the remainder of the tournament after suffering a torn muscle, a significant loss given his experience at this level, and Cameron Murray is managing a calf issue that will be closely monitored in the lead-up to kick-off.

Samoa, by contrast, will be nursing both physical and emotional wounds. Their narrow 20-18 loss to Tonga was heartbreaking, and star half Chanel Harris-Tavita picked up a hamstring injury in that match, leaving his availability for the semi-final in doubt. 

Losing a player of his creative influence would be a major blow against an Australian defence that rarely offers second chances.

This clash is also a rematch of the 2022 World Cup final, where Australia won comfortably, 30-10. 

That history, combined with Australia's superior depth points towards another dominant Australian performance.

Samoa will need something special from their stars to spring an upset, but they have shown they are certainly capable, as this is easily the best squad they have ever assembled. 

Look to Luai, the Hammer, To’o and Volkman to push the Aussies all the way in Rugby League World Cup all-timer. 

Head-to-head prediction: Australia. 

Betting tip: SGM – Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime try scorers.