Rugby League World Cup Tips and Predictions – Round 3

The third and final round of the Rugby League World Cup group stage is here, and two of the five games are effectively knockout footy.

The Kangaroos have already booked their semi-final spot, backing up their 24-22 opening win over New Zealand with a 36-22 victory over Fiji in Brisbane.

It wasn't all smooth sailing, though. The Bati led 16-12 after 45 minutes before the world champions found another gear.

That leaves New Zealand and Fiji on one win apiece, and Saturday's clash on the Gold Coast will decide who joins the Kangaroos in the semis and who heads home.

Over on the combined Pools B and C table, Samoa and Tonga are both two from two and meet in Sunday night's headline act at CommBank Stadium.

England kept their hopes alive with an 82-0 demolition of France, but they need a big win over Papua New Guinea and a helping hand from Tonga to sneak into the semis.

Got all that? Good, because it's shaping up to be a cracking weekend.

For all the latest news, analysis, and odds ahead of this week's RLWC action, check out our Rugby League World Cup Round 3 tips and predictions below.

England vs Papua New Guinea Prediction 

Friday, October 30, 8:05pm AEDT – WIN Stadium

England's World Cup fate is out of their hands, but what happens in Wollongong on Friday night is very much in them.

Brian McDermott's side bounced back from their 30-12 loss to Tonga by flogging France 82-0 in Perth, with Herbie Farnworth bagging a hat-trick and Dom Young racking up 11 tackle breaks.

That lifted England's points difference to +64. Samoa sit on +132, so this one is as much about the margin as the result.

PNG arrive with a win and a loss. The Kumuls opened with a 42-18 victory over Lebanon in Port Moresby before being thumped 64-6 by Samoa in front of their home fans.

History is firmly with England, who have won all five previous meetings between the two nations, including a 46-6 World Cup quarter-final win in 2022 when Tommy Makinson scored five tries.

We expect England to keep their foot on the throat for the full 80 minutes with the points difference in mind.

Head-to-head prediction: England. 

Betting tip: Dom Young first try scorer.

New Zealand vs Fiji Prediction 

Saturday, October 31, 3:30pm AEDT – Cbus Super Stadium

This is the one. Win and you're in the semi-finals. Lose and you're on the plane home.

New Zealand answered their first-round loss to the Kangaroos with an 82-16 thumping of the Cook Islands in Christchurch last start. 

Jamayne Isaako finished with 38 points, a new record for the most points by a Kiwi in a Test match, while Ronaldo Mulitalo, Casey McLean and debutant Tanner Stowers-Smith all scored doubles.

Stowers-Smith was a handful on debut too, running for 177 metres and making seven tackle breaks.

Fiji gave the Kangaroos a genuine scare in Brisbane, leading 16-12 early in the second half before going down 36-22.

The Bati could be without Mitchell Prest, who has been charged with a Grade 1 careless high tackle and faces a one-match ban with an early guilty plea.

These two have serious World Cup history. Fiji famously knocked the Kiwis out with a tryless 4-2 quarter-final win in Wellington in 2017, before New Zealand got their revenge with a 24-18 quarter-final win in 2022.

Can the Bati do it again? They've got the spirit to make a real contest of it, but the Kiwis' strike power out wide should prove too much.

Head-to-head prediction: New Zealand. 

Betting tip: Jamayne Isaako to score 2+ tries. 

Australia vs Cook Islands Prediction 

Saturday, October 31, 8:05pm AEDT – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

With top spot in Pool A already wrapped up, the Kangaroos head north to Townsville for their first-ever Test against the Cook Islands.

Australia's semi-final is locked in for Sunday, November 8 at Allianz Stadium, so the big question this week is how much Kevin Walters rotates his squad.

Whoever gets the nod, it's hard to see the Cook Islands keeping the scoreboard quiet. They've conceded 122 points across their two games, going down 40-12 to Fiji and 82-16 to New Zealand.

Tom Trbojevic was everywhere against Fiji, scoring three tries, while debutant halfback Sam Walker crossed for a try and kicked six goals from seven attempts.

The Cooks will throw plenty at the world champions in front of a big North Queensland crowd, but the class gap looks far, far too wide in this Round 3 encounter. 

Head-to-head prediction: Australia. 

Betting tip: Tom Trbojevic to score 2+ tries. 

Lebanon vs France Prediction 

Sunday, November 1, 5:40pm AEDT – CommBank Stadium

There's no semi-final spot on the line here, but there's plenty of pride as two winless sides go looking for their first points of the tournament.

Lebanon have been beaten 42-18 by PNG and 36-0 by Tonga.

France have had an even rougher fortnight, scoring four points and conceding 160 in losses to Samoa (78-4) and England (82-0). 

If there were a market on Les Chanticleers wanting the tournament to end early, it would be very short.

The Cedars at least showed some attacking spark in Port Moresby, with Abbas Miski scoring twice against the Kumuls.

Lebanon also hold the edge in this rivalry, winning four of the six previous meetings, including a 29-18 win in Canberra at the 2017 World Cup that was their first-ever win at the tournament.

Head-to-head prediction: Lebanon. 

Betting tip: Abbas Miski first try scorer.

Tonga vs Samoa Prediction 

Sunday, November 1, 8:05pm AEDT – CommBank Stadium

What a way to wrap Round 3 of the RLWC and the entire group stage. 

Tonga and Samoa are both unbeaten, both on four points, and the winner will finish on top of the combined Pools B and C table.

England will be watching closely too. A Samoa win would effectively end their tournament, while a Tonga win would leave second place to be decided on points difference.

Samoa have scored more points than anyone at the tournament, piling on 142 and conceding just 10 in wins over France and PNG.

Sua Fa'alogo already has six tries in two games, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow crossed twice against the Kumuls.

Tonga have been every bit as impressive in their own way, beating England 30-12 in Perth before keeping Lebanon scoreless in a 36-0 win last Friday.

Recent history leans Samoa's way, though. Toa Samoa won the 2022 World Cup quarter-final between these two 20-18 and beat Tonga 34-6 at Suncorp Stadium in last year's Pacific Championships.

We're tipping Samoa to make it three on the trot over their Pacific rivals in what has all the makings of the game of the tournament. 

Head-to-head prediction: Samoa. 

Betting tip: Sua Fa'alogo anytime try scorer.

*Odds are subject to change.